Yeah, the Blazers are off to a relatively good start... 10-5, 8-2 over their last 10, currently sitting 5th in the west in a virtual tie with 4th seed Denver. This is all in spite of a season ending injury to probable starter Nicolas Batum and a broken foot Travis Outlaw that will keep the 6th man out for 3-5 months.
Still though, I can't help but think that this team *could* be so much better. First, there's the Andre Miller signing. Now, I don't want to really call it a mistake because Steve Blake is clearly the inferior player and *should* be a backup PG on contending/elite teams. And Miller can definitely be a starter on a contender/elite team. McMillan did try starting Miller for a couple of weeks (although along side Blake instead of in lieu of) and despite some shaky moments, the Blazers rattled off a 7-2 record during that stretch. However, last Saturday saw the end of that experiment (after a 94-108 loss the previous night to GS) with Miller back as a sub off the bench. The Blazers still won with a 106-78 smackdown of lowly Minnesota, but still, the idea of Miller and his talents (and $7 million salary) being wasted on 20 uninspiring minutes off the bench just seems like a total waste.
Of course, the real problem in all this is that Roy just doesn't seem comfortable playing for long stretches with a ball-dominant PG. Rather than continuing to teach and make adjustments, McMillan seems content to just acquiescence to his star's playing demands. Even though I don't agree with it, I wouldn't be surprised if Miller is dealt either before the trade deadline or this summer (where he'll be an expiring contract for 2011).
Now, who would Miller be traded for is the question? Unless a shoot first PG was available (i.e. a Jason Terry, Mo Williams type), I think the Blazers should address another glaring need in terms of a backup PF. The recent injury to Travis Outlaw has really exposed our lack size at the PF position. At C behind Oden we have Pryzbilla, but behind Aldridge (who already is a more finesse PF) we have NOBODY! Before his injury, Outlaw was our backup PF and he was already a tweener that barely gets on the glass. Now we're trotting out super-vet (as in super old) Juwan Howard out there. REALLY? I don't know if you've seen any Portland games (or just Juwan Howard) lately, but he's seriously old and just plain terrible. I have no idea why he's getting any minutes at all... let along 10+ since Outlaw's injury. FWIW, you can always tell when Howard is in the game, because that's when we're either losing or letting the other team back in the game. In the last 5 games, despite playing only ~10 minutes per, Howard has amassed an impressive -19 +/-. That's with the Blazers winning 3-2 and outscoring their opponents by 22. In fact, Howard has had a negative +/- in all but the Charlotte game, where he was a +3. At least point, I'd rather McMillan experiment more with either the Twin Towers look (Oden & Pryzbilla) or 4 guard look. At least we'd either has some real size/toughness out there or a speed/shooting advantage. With Howard, it's like we're 4 on 5, on offense AND defense.
Of course, hindsight 20/20, but if they knew there would be problems with Roy and Miller coexisting... maybe the Blazers should have spent their free agent money on a backup big instead. I know they did tender an offer on Millsap (which got matched by Utah), but want about offers for Hakim Warrick, Brandon Bass, or Drew Gooden? All three were FAs that signed with other teams this past summer and would have been fine coming off the Portland bench and would have been much better PF options than Old Man Howard.
And one last bit... you know I can't talk about the Blazers without talking about Greg Oden. So far, Oden has been playing pretty well for the Blazers and is a defensive force whenever he's in the game. FWIW, he has the highest +/- of any Blazer at +9.7. (unsurprisingly, Juwan Howard is a team worst -20.6). He's 3rd in the league in rebound percentage and third in blocks and if he could ever stay on the court, his per 36 stats project out to a very impressive 15.5/12.1 and 3.5 blks. 'Course he's constantly battling foul trouble, with a NBA leading 60 fouls so far, and his per 36 is exactly 6.0 fouls per game (hey, at least it's down from his 6.5 fpg last year).
So, naturally a lot of games, Oden will pick up two quick fouls in the 1st quarter and have to end up watching the majority of the half from the bench. I get that. You gotta protect your guy from fouling out in a quarter. My problem with McMillan is that if you yank him with 2 quick fouls... shouldn't you keep him in the game when he's NOT fouling? I mean, Oden's already missed so much of his first two years... shouldn't it be a priority to play him as much as you can, when you can? Case in point, last Saturday's game against Minnesota. It's the first quarter... Oden is playing well (2 pts, 1 reb, 2 blks), the team is playing well (up 14-6), and most importantly Oden has ZERO fouls. But what does McMillan do? Sub in Pryzbilla at the 5:39 mark. To make it even more obvious, Oden was the FIRST starter to the bench! The other four starters got to stay on the floor! WHY?!?! And no, it wasn't a fatigue kind of thing... Oden only played 24 minutes the night before at GS. FWIW, the other two Portland "stars" Roy and Aldridge got to play the rest of the first quarter. And this isn't an isolated incident either. Foul trouble or not, McMillan seems content to just play Oden for ~24 minutes. 7 times so far this season (out of 15 games played) Oden has recorded 4 or less fouls in a game, yet never broke 29 minutes (averaged 25:44 in those 7 games). I simply can't think of a reason for this. If you want your stud 1st pick to play like a franchise player, you need to PLAY him like a franchise player, not some role player in a timeshare.
Monday, November 23, 2009
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Good job Memphis
Y'all know I'm a Laker hater... but sometimes I gotta spread the hate a little, so this post is for the Memphis Grizzlies. Seriously, don't let the Net's 0-6 start fool you, they've been struck by quite a few injuries (Harris, Yi, CDR, Lee). No, the worst team in the league by far is the Memphis Grizzlies (1-5). I don't know how anyone thought acquiring Zach Randolph over the summer would have been a good thing. Yeah, he's always a 20-10 type of guy and he's even averaging a career best 3 apg this year, but those are probably the emptiest stats in the league. Every team he goes to just gets worse and I bet you thought that wasn't possible with the Grizzlies, but check this out...
The Grizzlies are now giving up a league worst 115 PPG, up from 99.3 PPG last season (18th). They're also third worst in opp. FG% (50.6%) that's from 6th worst last season (47.3%). They're also third worst in points differential (-9.8), from 5th worst last season (-5.4). All this despite suffering no major injuries to their entire roster and getting a spectacular start from 2nd year center Marc Gasol (16.3 pts, 11.7 rebs, 1.5 blks, 58% FG).
And what about their 2nd overall pick from last year? You know the guy they picked ahead of Rubio, Evans, Curry, Jennings, and basically everybody not named Griffin. Well, apparently Hasheem Thabeet is just not good enough to play sometimes... at least according to Grizzlies head coach Lionel Hollins.
You know... Thabeet is supposed to be defensive minded (2x Big East Defensive Player of the Year) and the Grizzlies are obviously terrible at defensive. I'm pretty sure the leaner/meaner Marc Gasol can play some spot PF. Why not roll the both of them out there for a bit (and give Z-Bo a rest) and see what happens. Maybe just 3-4 minutes at a time, 1-2 quarters a game. They're already losing and getting blown out more often than not... the twin towers experiment can't be that much worse, can it?
The Grizzlies are now giving up a league worst 115 PPG, up from 99.3 PPG last season (18th). They're also third worst in opp. FG% (50.6%) that's from 6th worst last season (47.3%). They're also third worst in points differential (-9.8), from 5th worst last season (-5.4). All this despite suffering no major injuries to their entire roster and getting a spectacular start from 2nd year center Marc Gasol (16.3 pts, 11.7 rebs, 1.5 blks, 58% FG).
And what about their 2nd overall pick from last year? You know the guy they picked ahead of Rubio, Evans, Curry, Jennings, and basically everybody not named Griffin. Well, apparently Hasheem Thabeet is just not good enough to play sometimes... at least according to Grizzlies head coach Lionel Hollins.
"In the (Western Conference), there's going to be nights he can't play," Hollins said. "He can't play against Golden State. He can't play against Phoenix. It'll be about matchups, but he'll get his time."Um, 2nd overall picks shouldn't be situational bench players, they should be damn near studs. Well unless you're that other 2nd overall pick... but Thabeet isn't an 18 year old unknown Euro project. He played 3 years of NCAA ball at a major college (UCONN) with lots of tournament exposure. You should know what you're getting when you draft him. Yeah, yeah, there was also that other high pick guy that did 3 years at a major college and turned out to be a major bust. But at least that bust played 30 minutes a game for 78 games in his rookie campaign... Thabeet isn't even getting a chance to play. Good job Memphis!
You know... Thabeet is supposed to be defensive minded (2x Big East Defensive Player of the Year) and the Grizzlies are obviously terrible at defensive. I'm pretty sure the leaner/meaner Marc Gasol can play some spot PF. Why not roll the both of them out there for a bit (and give Z-Bo a rest) and see what happens. Maybe just 3-4 minutes at a time, 1-2 quarters a game. They're already losing and getting blown out more often than not... the twin towers experiment can't be that much worse, can it?
Girls are crazy
Okay, this is probably my first non-bball post, but at least it's sports related. Women's soccer game between BYU and New Mexico... if you haven't seen it, #15 is just CRAZY! It's like Malice at the Palace x100 but for whatever reason, they let her keep playing. It's like Ron Artest + Mike Tyson + Zinedine Zidane all rolled into one. Check out the fouls, they're ALL of her, in the SAME game! The fact that they let her keep playing, those have got to be the worst refs of any sport at any level of the game. Just wow.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Nostradamous
I'll admit that I suck at real-world NBA predictions. 3/7 of my all time predictions went bust in the very first year and my preseason rankings for the 2008-09 season was just plain terrible. That's why I've refrained from making any rankings/predictions for this season. No need to make more excuses to laugh at myself at season's end, right?
But at least I know my fantasy stuff. What did I say about Martin and Redd being injury prone? Well, Redd is already out at least two weeks with a sprained knee and Martin just got diagnosed with a hairline fracture in his wrist (no word yet on how much time or if any he will miss). Also, I also told you to avoid Calderon, Brand, and Baron Davis... and that all turned out to be sound advice. I mean, last year was a year to forget for B Diddy and as impossible as it seems, he's actually playing WORSE so far this year... just 11 points on 33% shooting and one 3PTMs a game. Brand has been worse as well, averaging just 12/8 on 46% shooting. That's stats from your last guy, not somebody you spent a 5th round pick on.
Of course, I've wiffed a picked or two too. Most notably on Anthony Randolph. I had pretty high expectations on AR and happily used a 6th and a 7th round pick in two different drafts for him. To say that he's been underwhelming is an understatement, averaging just 8 pts and 4.7 rebs on 35% shooting without even a full block or steal to add to his line. A lot of the blame goes to Nellie though. I mean, AR is a young guy and inconsistent and you want to bring him along slowly, I get that. So Nellie starts Turiaf and lets Randolph come off the bench. That's understanable. But when Turiaf goes out with a sprained knee, you'd think Randolph would be in line for the those minutes. 'Cept instead Nellie goes and starts Stephen Jackson at PF and slots Randolph behind MIKKI FRIGGIN MOORE on the depth chart. 7 minutes is all AR got last night. WTF?!?! That is seriously messed up. Nellie just seems crazier and crazier by the game. He needs 22 more games to pass Lenny Wilkins for all-time winningest coach. What are the odds the Warriors can get that by all-star break and Nellie just up and quits when he gets the record?
But at least I know my fantasy stuff. What did I say about Martin and Redd being injury prone? Well, Redd is already out at least two weeks with a sprained knee and Martin just got diagnosed with a hairline fracture in his wrist (no word yet on how much time or if any he will miss). Also, I also told you to avoid Calderon, Brand, and Baron Davis... and that all turned out to be sound advice. I mean, last year was a year to forget for B Diddy and as impossible as it seems, he's actually playing WORSE so far this year... just 11 points on 33% shooting and one 3PTMs a game. Brand has been worse as well, averaging just 12/8 on 46% shooting. That's stats from your last guy, not somebody you spent a 5th round pick on.
Of course, I've wiffed a picked or two too. Most notably on Anthony Randolph. I had pretty high expectations on AR and happily used a 6th and a 7th round pick in two different drafts for him. To say that he's been underwhelming is an understatement, averaging just 8 pts and 4.7 rebs on 35% shooting without even a full block or steal to add to his line. A lot of the blame goes to Nellie though. I mean, AR is a young guy and inconsistent and you want to bring him along slowly, I get that. So Nellie starts Turiaf and lets Randolph come off the bench. That's understanable. But when Turiaf goes out with a sprained knee, you'd think Randolph would be in line for the those minutes. 'Cept instead Nellie goes and starts Stephen Jackson at PF and slots Randolph behind MIKKI FRIGGIN MOORE on the depth chart. 7 minutes is all AR got last night. WTF?!?! That is seriously messed up. Nellie just seems crazier and crazier by the game. He needs 22 more games to pass Lenny Wilkins for all-time winningest coach. What are the odds the Warriors can get that by all-star break and Nellie just up and quits when he gets the record?
Monday, November 2, 2009
Conspiracy Theories
In case you didn't know, Tim Donaghy is the disgraced former NBA ref that was caught betting on NBA games (including those that he reffed). He went to jail, did his time, got out, broke his probation, and is now back in jail. During his first jail stint... Donaghy wrote a tell-all book, "Blowing the Whistle", about all the crookedness/craziness in the NBA. The book was picked up by Triumph Books, which has since canceled the printing and now Donaghy is looking for new publishers. In typical internet fashion, excerpts are now available online. Of course, the validity/trustworthiness of Donaghy's word is debatable... but still, it's some fascinating/shocking stuff. Full excerpts are available at deadspin.com though my personal favs are quoted below...
If you have the time, I'd highly recommend reading the full link above, there's a LOT more quotes and examples there. Pretty crazy stuff imho, though surprisingly not all that shocking or unbelievable from a fan's perspective. I really wish the NBA would institute a challenge-like system a la the NFL. Coaches can ask for video review of any calls, if the coach is right, the call is reversed. If the coach is wrong, the team is charged a full timeout (to cut down on frivolous challenges). And added benefit is that we'd have a public record for the number/frequency of reversed calls per ref, for greater accountability.
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Oh and fantasy update... I hope you picked up Danillo Gallinari when I recommended him last week, cuz odds are he's gone by now and I think he's gonna be the pickup of the year. He's averaging SIX 3PTM over his last 3 games... 80% of his FGA are from behind the arc (12/15) and he's just been promoted to the NY starting lineup. That's insane!
Similar insanity goes out to Channing Frye, who's averaging 4.3 3PTMs and 19.7 through 3 games. Actually everybody on the Suns ('cept Amare) are playing out of their minds right now. 35 year old SF Grant Hill is averaging 20/10 through 3 games and Nash is back to MVP form, posting 18/3/14. I expect them to cool off somewhat, but it's nice to see the old run and gun Suns back to form.
Also Chris Douglas Roberts finally had a breakout game. Your choice whether to nab him now or wait for one more good performance. With Devin Harris out for 2 weeks, I think CDR can get a lot more looks in their offense. Having 3 position eligibility is nice too. For another temp pickup, you can check out Charlie Bell, who'll be starting for Redd for the next 2 weeks.
It's almost tough sometimes cuz there's lots of options out there on the FA list but you just don't have the roster space to make the move. If you can swing some 2-1 deals to upgrade your top talents, DO IT. Even if you're slightly overpaying... because the stuff on the wire (esp. early in the season) is always good. If you can't free that spot though, sometimes you have to consider your team's needs/strengths when you're dealing with the last spots your roster instead of just the best/better player available.
Personally I've had to let someone else take Frye in a league just because I didn't have anybody I was willing to drop. And I had to drop Tyreke Evans to take Brandon Jennings in another league. In Frye's case, my team was already really strong in 3s so I'd rather keep a true big like Thompson or Speights instead of picking up Frye to pad a stat I'd carry anyways.
We had another variation of this gag simply referred to as the "first foul of the game" bet. While still in the locker room before tip-off, we would make a wager on which of us would call the game's first foul. [...] There were occasions when we would hold back for two or three minutes — an eternity in an NBA game — before blowing the whistle. It didn't matter if bodies were flying all over the place; no fouls were called because no one wanted to lose the bet.
We played this little game during the regular season and summer league. After a game, all three refs would gather around the VCR and watch a replay of the game. Early in the contest, the announcers would say, "Holy cow! They're really letting them play tonight!" If they only knew...
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You would think that the NBA would love a guy who plays such great defense. Think again! Star stoppers hurt the promotion of marquee players. [...]
If a player of Kobe's stature collides with the likes of Raja Bell, the call will almost always go for Kobe and against Bell. As part of our ongoing training and game preparation, NBA referees regularly receive game-action video tape from the league office. Over the years, I have reviewed many recorded hours of video involving Raja Bell. The footage I analyzed usually illustrated fouls being called against Bell, rarely for him. The message was subtle but clear — call fouls against the star stopper because he's hurting the game.
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From my earliest involvement with Bavetta, I learned that he likes to keep games close, and that when a team gets down by double-digit points, he helps the players save face. He accomplishes this act of mercy by quietly, and frequently, blowing the whistle on the team that's having the better night. Team fouls suddenly become one-sided between the contestants, and the score begins to tighten up. That's the way Dick Bavetta referees a game — and everyone in the league knew it.
[...] Is the conscious act of helping a team crawl back into a contest "cheating"? The credo of referees from high school to the NBA is "call them like you see them." Of course, that's a lot different than purposely calling more fouls against one team as opposed to another. Did Bavetta have a hidden agenda? Or was he the ultimate company man, making sure the NBA and its fans got a competitive game most times he was on the court?
If you have the time, I'd highly recommend reading the full link above, there's a LOT more quotes and examples there. Pretty crazy stuff imho, though surprisingly not all that shocking or unbelievable from a fan's perspective. I really wish the NBA would institute a challenge-like system a la the NFL. Coaches can ask for video review of any calls, if the coach is right, the call is reversed. If the coach is wrong, the team is charged a full timeout (to cut down on frivolous challenges). And added benefit is that we'd have a public record for the number/frequency of reversed calls per ref, for greater accountability.
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Oh and fantasy update... I hope you picked up Danillo Gallinari when I recommended him last week, cuz odds are he's gone by now and I think he's gonna be the pickup of the year. He's averaging SIX 3PTM over his last 3 games... 80% of his FGA are from behind the arc (12/15) and he's just been promoted to the NY starting lineup. That's insane!
Similar insanity goes out to Channing Frye, who's averaging 4.3 3PTMs and 19.7 through 3 games. Actually everybody on the Suns ('cept Amare) are playing out of their minds right now. 35 year old SF Grant Hill is averaging 20/10 through 3 games and Nash is back to MVP form, posting 18/3/14. I expect them to cool off somewhat, but it's nice to see the old run and gun Suns back to form.
Also Chris Douglas Roberts finally had a breakout game. Your choice whether to nab him now or wait for one more good performance. With Devin Harris out for 2 weeks, I think CDR can get a lot more looks in their offense. Having 3 position eligibility is nice too. For another temp pickup, you can check out Charlie Bell, who'll be starting for Redd for the next 2 weeks.
It's almost tough sometimes cuz there's lots of options out there on the FA list but you just don't have the roster space to make the move. If you can swing some 2-1 deals to upgrade your top talents, DO IT. Even if you're slightly overpaying... because the stuff on the wire (esp. early in the season) is always good. If you can't free that spot though, sometimes you have to consider your team's needs/strengths when you're dealing with the last spots your roster instead of just the best/better player available.
Personally I've had to let someone else take Frye in a league just because I didn't have anybody I was willing to drop. And I had to drop Tyreke Evans to take Brandon Jennings in another league. In Frye's case, my team was already really strong in 3s so I'd rather keep a true big like Thompson or Speights instead of picking up Frye to pad a stat I'd carry anyways.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Lakers win 2010 NBA Championship!
Wow! What a season and what a finals run. Over the summer, the defending NBA champs acquired former all-star and defensive player of the year Ron Artest and still managed to retain all their core pieces. On opening night, on his first trip to the free throw line, the MVP chants rained down from the rafters of the Staples Center for Kobe Bryant, marking a perfect start to the perfect season. Their young phenom center Andrew Bynum dropped 26/13 on that opening night and the Lakers proceeded to rattle off a 20-1 winning streak to open the season. They eventually shattered the 1995 Chicago Bull's 72-10 overall season record and in the playoffs, the Lakers would beattheir own 15-1 playoff record from 2000 by sweeping all their opponents for their 17th NBA championship.
...
Oh wait, no, that's not it. What you say? It's only the first week of the season and the Lakers have only played two games? Are you sure? Cuz it sure didn't seem that way based on the national presentation of the Lakers so far. On Tuesday, the Lakers were only up 2 pts at the start of the 4th quarter against the lowly Clippers and won with a margin of 7 pts, yet the TNT crew (Barkley, Kenny, Webber) all agreed that the Lakers will totally start the season 20-1 and challenge the Bulls 72-10 record. And then there was tonight's ESPN broadcast of the Lakers/Mavericks game. I know I'm a Laker hater and all, but that was seriously the most homeristic presentation I have EVER seen, and I'm a league pass subscriber. I've heard broadcasts from every team's home broadcast teams (incl. Boston's infamous Tommy Heinsolm) and this just takes the cake. ESPN's Mike Breen was just incredulous that the almighty Lakers could be down to anybody and would loudly exclaim every change in the score like it was an impossibility. Um, last I checked... the Mavs are still one of better teams in the West. They still have Dirk and Kidd and reloaded themselves over the summer with Marion and Gooden. They'll definitely be playoff bound come April and I think its just rude and disrespectful to dismiss them in such a way. And in case you missed it, the Mavs were up as much as 19 with 2:38 left in the 4th and eventually won by 14, 94-80.
The moral of this rant? It's a long season and every team and player has good days and bad days. Stop with the early over reactions. FWIW, I think the Lakers will probably be 17-4 at the end of 21 games. Yes, that's still an awesome .800 record and will likely be the best in the league, but it's a far cry from 20-1 and even farther from any notions of the 72-10 Bulls. For a little more perspective, the Celtics last year opened the season 23-2 and still "only" reached 62-10 by season's end. As for the those Bulls? Jordan, Pippen, and crew opened the season 41-3. Yeah, 41-3, that's a .931 winning percentage. So please shut up ESPN/TNT and all your national pundits. The Laker hype is in overdrive and I'm already sick of it and we're 2 games in.
/RANT
...
Oh wait, no, that's not it. What you say? It's only the first week of the season and the Lakers have only played two games? Are you sure? Cuz it sure didn't seem that way based on the national presentation of the Lakers so far. On Tuesday, the Lakers were only up 2 pts at the start of the 4th quarter against the lowly Clippers and won with a margin of 7 pts, yet the TNT crew (Barkley, Kenny, Webber) all agreed that the Lakers will totally start the season 20-1 and challenge the Bulls 72-10 record. And then there was tonight's ESPN broadcast of the Lakers/Mavericks game. I know I'm a Laker hater and all, but that was seriously the most homeristic presentation I have EVER seen, and I'm a league pass subscriber. I've heard broadcasts from every team's home broadcast teams (incl. Boston's infamous Tommy Heinsolm) and this just takes the cake. ESPN's Mike Breen was just incredulous that the almighty Lakers could be down to anybody and would loudly exclaim every change in the score like it was an impossibility. Um, last I checked... the Mavs are still one of better teams in the West. They still have Dirk and Kidd and reloaded themselves over the summer with Marion and Gooden. They'll definitely be playoff bound come April and I think its just rude and disrespectful to dismiss them in such a way. And in case you missed it, the Mavs were up as much as 19 with 2:38 left in the 4th and eventually won by 14, 94-80.
The moral of this rant? It's a long season and every team and player has good days and bad days. Stop with the early over reactions. FWIW, I think the Lakers will probably be 17-4 at the end of 21 games. Yes, that's still an awesome .800 record and will likely be the best in the league, but it's a far cry from 20-1 and even farther from any notions of the 72-10 Bulls. For a little more perspective, the Celtics last year opened the season 23-2 and still "only" reached 62-10 by season's end. As for the those Bulls? Jordan, Pippen, and crew opened the season 41-3. Yeah, 41-3, that's a .931 winning percentage. So please shut up ESPN/TNT and all your national pundits. The Laker hype is in overdrive and I'm already sick of it and we're 2 games in.
/RANT
Thursday, October 29, 2009
The Sky is Falling
Yes, the Cavaliers are 0-2 to start the season. Yes, they've already lost at home while it took until February last year for them to lose their first home game. Yes, Lebron James is already carrying an extraordinary load, averaging 42 minutes in the first two games. And yes, Shaq is 37 years old, terrible at the pick-n-roll defense, and a horrendous -25 in 25 minutes of play last night. We're two games into the season and the sky is falling in Cleveland. Brown is gonna get fired, James is gonna bail to NY this summer, and old Shaq has just ruined another championship contender. I say it's time to panic and blow everything up!
But wait! Maybe history can give us some perspective. Hmmm, if the Cavs win their next game (Friday @ MIN), they'd have the SAME record after three games as last year, 1-2. And you know who lost their first two games last year? To teams such as the Hawks and Grizzlies? If you guessed the reigning Eastern Conference Champs, the Orlando Magic, well, you'd be right! Oh and there's that team 4 years ago that opened the season with 4 straight losses and still ended up with a 67 win season and the best record in the NBA. Though of course we're hoping for a different postseason result than THAT team ;-)
Anyway... I say give the Cavs some time to gel and don't jump on Shaq's early disappointment too much. They'll get it together. Come back and re-evaluate in a couple weeks. Actually, just 13 days to be exact. That'll be a good evaluation point then.
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Oh and a quickie fantasy update... boo on Anthony Randolph and Spencer Hawes coming off the bench, WTF!?! Hopefully those situations don't last long. At least Hawes still played starter minutes. Hot pickups for me include Danilo Gallinari and Marreese Speights. Cold drops for me include DJ Augustin and Anthony Morrow. And if you're just looking for a temporary pickup, Ryan Anderson seems to be the primary beneficiary of Rashard Lewis' suspension. And keep an eye out for Chris Douglas Roberts. He had a pretty meh game last night, but he is starting and was pretty effective for the Nets in pre-season. I've picked him up in my deeper league (15 man rosters), but you can probably wait for a breakout game before snatching him up. Still, keep checking those Nets box scores. I think he can be a good sleeper candidate.
But wait! Maybe history can give us some perspective. Hmmm, if the Cavs win their next game (Friday @ MIN), they'd have the SAME record after three games as last year, 1-2. And you know who lost their first two games last year? To teams such as the Hawks and Grizzlies? If you guessed the reigning Eastern Conference Champs, the Orlando Magic, well, you'd be right! Oh and there's that team 4 years ago that opened the season with 4 straight losses and still ended up with a 67 win season and the best record in the NBA. Though of course we're hoping for a different postseason result than THAT team ;-)
Anyway... I say give the Cavs some time to gel and don't jump on Shaq's early disappointment too much. They'll get it together. Come back and re-evaluate in a couple weeks. Actually, just 13 days to be exact. That'll be a good evaluation point then.
...
Oh and a quickie fantasy update... boo on Anthony Randolph and Spencer Hawes coming off the bench, WTF!?! Hopefully those situations don't last long. At least Hawes still played starter minutes. Hot pickups for me include Danilo Gallinari and Marreese Speights. Cold drops for me include DJ Augustin and Anthony Morrow. And if you're just looking for a temporary pickup, Ryan Anderson seems to be the primary beneficiary of Rashard Lewis' suspension. And keep an eye out for Chris Douglas Roberts. He had a pretty meh game last night, but he is starting and was pretty effective for the Nets in pre-season. I've picked him up in my deeper league (15 man rosters), but you can probably wait for a breakout game before snatching him up. Still, keep checking those Nets box scores. I think he can be a good sleeper candidate.
Monday, October 26, 2009
Youtube Goodness
Alrighty, here's some videos for y'all today. First up, we have another insane preseason dunk from Blake Griffin. Seriously, the rookie looks insane and I love his aggressiveness on the court. Despite the end of the clip, I think Griffin will play on opening day this Wednesday (cuz Camby is already hurt) and he'll take the reins of the starting PF job for good right away. Griffin reminds me of a pre-surgery Amare that actually cares about defense and grabbing boards. Good stuff! Video courtesy of ClipperBlog.
The second video features another rookie (to-be) in Ricky Rubio where he just helped his new team Barca thoroughly rout his former team Joventut to the tune of 92-59. He sure looks NBA ready to me... too bad we'll probably have to wait two years to finally see him here. Some real fancy passes... esp. the last one, mind boggling awareness and creativity. Video courtesy of Ball in Europe.
And one last bit of news. Nicolas Batum has a torn labrum and will undergo surgery this week. It's the same injury that Jameer Nelson suffered last year. The recovery time is expected to be 3-5 months. If Batum is back at all, it'll be late in the season, he'll be rusty, and the team would already have a set rotation/chemistry. In my opinion this is practically the same as season ending for Batum. Really bad news for the young SF and the Blazers. Though maybe it'll open up more playing time for Rudy Fernandez, though I'd expect Martell Webster to take back his starting SF job (which he coincidentally lost to Batum last year cuz of his own season ending injury).
I know the season hasn't even started yet... but I'm seriously starting to get nervous for my Blazers. Their preseason performance has been completely lackluster. Just 4-4 so far and Roy in particular have struggle, putting up just 12.6 pts, 2.1 rebs, 4.4 asts, 2.1 tos in 26 minutes on 40% shooting. There's was also some dissent with newly acquired PG Andre Miller wanting a starting job and now this major injury to Batum. I'm just hoping we start hearing some good news out of Portland soon...
The second video features another rookie (to-be) in Ricky Rubio where he just helped his new team Barca thoroughly rout his former team Joventut to the tune of 92-59. He sure looks NBA ready to me... too bad we'll probably have to wait two years to finally see him here. Some real fancy passes... esp. the last one, mind boggling awareness and creativity. Video courtesy of Ball in Europe.
And one last bit of news. Nicolas Batum has a torn labrum and will undergo surgery this week. It's the same injury that Jameer Nelson suffered last year. The recovery time is expected to be 3-5 months. If Batum is back at all, it'll be late in the season, he'll be rusty, and the team would already have a set rotation/chemistry. In my opinion this is practically the same as season ending for Batum. Really bad news for the young SF and the Blazers. Though maybe it'll open up more playing time for Rudy Fernandez, though I'd expect Martell Webster to take back his starting SF job (which he coincidentally lost to Batum last year cuz of his own season ending injury).
I know the season hasn't even started yet... but I'm seriously starting to get nervous for my Blazers. Their preseason performance has been completely lackluster. Just 4-4 so far and Roy in particular have struggle, putting up just 12.6 pts, 2.1 rebs, 4.4 asts, 2.1 tos in 26 minutes on 40% shooting. There's was also some dissent with newly acquired PG Andre Miller wanting a starting job and now this major injury to Batum. I'm just hoping we start hearing some good news out of Portland soon...
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Draft Picks... Part 2
Once again, players are ranked by their Yahoo O-Rank. Here we go...
52) Michael Redd - Last year rank 197. Early reports say Redd's finally healthy. But like lots of other players, Redd just seems to keep getting injured. Sure, it's always a different body part so it's not a chronic condition, but injury prone is injury prone. And even when healthy, he doesn't contribute much besides pts and 3s. At 30 years old and with the same team/system, I don't see how he can improve from his healthy numbers. Pass.
55) Rajon Rondo - Last year rank 51. Rondo absolutely exploded during the playoffs last year, averaging almost a triple double 16.9/9.7/9.8 through the playoffs. He won't rebound anywhere near that during the season, but he's improved every year of his career so far. I see no reason why he won't bump his points and assists a bit from last year's 12/8. Celtics got more help up front with the addition of Rasheed but still no legit backup PG so the minutes are all Rondo's. Solid pickup here.
58) Nene - Last year rank 22. Really wish his rebounds were higher (7.8 rpg) but he'll contribute in stls, blks, and fg%. And doesn't really hurt you anywhere else. Hopefully last year WASN'T a fluke in terms of health (77 games played). Don't read too much in to that 22 rank from last year and don't reach too far... but imho Nene's a solid pick anywhere in the 50s.
61) Charlie Villanueva - Last year rank 61. Charlie put up his stats last year with just 26 MPG. Now he's on the Pistons who basically have no other legit bigs (Kwame? Old Ben? Wilcox?). I can totally see his minutes climb into the higher 30s... which *should* mean he can only improve upon last year. Maybe not in points (14+ FGA will be hard to top with his trigger happy guards), but at least rebounds if not asts/stls/blocks as well.
63) Mo Williams - Last year rank 24. Another good pick up if you can nab him near here. Lots of pts, 3s, and solid percentages. With Shaq drawing double teams and semi-backup Delonte West in legal troubles... if anything, Mo should improve on his 2.3 3PG and 4.1 apg from last year. Even if you'd had to reach up in the 50s for Mo, he's still a great pick imho.
66) Andre Miller - Last year rank 34. First word out of Portland is that Miller will be coming off the bench. Ignore that 34 rank from last year... Miller might not have lost a step, but minutes will be hard to come by with Portland's depth. You need playtime to rack up the stats... pass on Miller.
68) Andrew Bynum - Last year rank 143. Laker bias aside, I still don't like Bynum. Sure, he'll have the occasional WOW game, but he's gonna disappoint more often than not. On top of injury risks (50 and 35 games played the last 2 seasons), the Lakers are just loaded. He's gonna be fighting Odom for minutes and sometimes they might even roll Artest out there as a four. Pass on this one.
72) Anthony Randolph - Last year rank 185. Randolph showed glimpse of his potential towards the end of the last year when he averaged an impressive 15/10 wiith 1.5 stls and 1 blks over the last 8 games of the season when given starter's minutes. He continued the trend by dominating this year's summer league. Anything can happen when Nellie's the coach, but Randolph *should* be the starter and given 30+ minutes this year. If that happens, I expect this to be an extremely good pick as Randolph can really do a bit of everything, kind of like a G-Wallace type.
73) Paul Millsap - Last year rank 56. That rank is a bit deceiving since Millsap as the starter in Utah is a top 35-40 player. However as a backup to Boozer is a top 80-90 player. So which one are you going to get? Boozer is still on the Jazz roster. The Jazz don't really want Boozer for the future, but they're not gonna just sit Boozer (that will tank his value). But waiting for a trade can wreck your team... what if a deal doesn't go down until the trade deadline? Over half the season would be gone. Avoid this mess and pass Millsap. Draft him next year.
76) Rasheed Wallace - Last year rank 53. 'Sheed's gonna be a backup in Boston this year. KG and Perkins are gonna be the starters and 'Sheed will still have Big Baby competing in minutes. Sure, 'Sheed will be the one in the game in the 4th and if KG goes down, he can get a good boost... but overall, I think it'll be hard for him to crack 28 minutes. Pass.
81) Jason Terry - Last year rank 20. On the one hand, you can think Terry's 19.6 ppg and 2.3 3PG were flukes last year (both career highs). But on the other hand... Terry has always been a SG in a PG's body and last year was the first year he played almost exclusively in the SG role (playing off PG Jason Kidd). I think Terry's points might dip a bit this year... but even 17 ppg with two 3s is fantastic value at this point of the draft. Especially considering his decent %s and low TOs. FWIW, I got him in the 8th round of my first draft his year (overall 90th pick). That was straight robbery and I consider that my best steal of the draft.
83) JR Smith - Last year rank 70. JR Smith was certainly hot at times last year and his 3pt barrages can straight win you games some weeks. Still he's suspended for the first 7 games of the season. That's 2 weeks. He ain't Rashard Lewis... you don't need or want to wait for him. Odds are, he'll get drafted but dropped for some new hotness in the first week or so, so if you really want him, you can pick him off waivers for free if you're quick about it. Pass for now.
88) Chris Kaman - Last year rank 250. Avoid, avoid, avoid. Only 31 and 56 games played in the past two seasons. And he's really only had one awesome season in his 6 year career (that 56 game 07-08 season where he avg. 15.7/12.7). With youngins Blake and DeAndre Jordan waiting on the bench... Kaman's upside is minimal and the downside is downright catastrophic. Let someone else take this gamble. Pass.
90) Wilson Chandler - Last year rank 61. The D'Antoni system is great for players and Chandler is no exception. He averaged 14.4/5.4 with a 3, steal, and a block per game last year. This will just be his 3rd year in the league so there's even more room for improvement. He's like a Marion-lite that plays the 2-3 instead of the 3-4. Even modest bumps in his stats will push him into a top 50 fantasy player. You'll probably have to reach earlier for Chandler, but he'll be worth it.
92) Luis Scola - Last year rank 64. With Yao out for the season, Scola will be expected to carry the bulk of the load upfront for the Rockets. He already averaged 12.7/8.8 last year. I think 14/10 will be an easy target for Scola and even 15/11 doesn't seem outrageous. That's damn good value this late in the draft, especially for a F/C. And he's been durable too... 82 games each the past two seasons. Again, you'll probably have to reach for him, so don't actually wait until the 90s.
95) Andrew Bogut - Last year rank 221. The rank mostly has to do with him only playing 36 games last year. He also only played 66 games in 06-07. But he did play 82 and 78 games in his other two years in the league... so I dunno if it's fair to call him injury prone yet. Still, I just can't shake that iffy feeling with Bogut. And even when healthy, he's a low double-double guy (12-10, 1 blk). That's about on par for an 80ish player... so is it really worth the injury risks with the minimal upside? I'd only draft him if you're short on Cs. If not, pass.
97) Trever Ariza - Last year rank 74. Ariza was a 24 minute role player with the Lakers but with the injury depleted Rockets, he's gonna be a 30+ minute starter and the #2-3 option on the team. Minute projects are hardly accurate, BUT just for kicks... his per 36 minutes from last year projects to 13 pts, 6 rebs, 2.5 steals and a 3. That seems pretty reasonable. And those steals will be almost enough to carry you some weeks. I say draft him.
52) Michael Redd - Last year rank 197. Early reports say Redd's finally healthy. But like lots of other players, Redd just seems to keep getting injured. Sure, it's always a different body part so it's not a chronic condition, but injury prone is injury prone. And even when healthy, he doesn't contribute much besides pts and 3s. At 30 years old and with the same team/system, I don't see how he can improve from his healthy numbers. Pass.
55) Rajon Rondo - Last year rank 51. Rondo absolutely exploded during the playoffs last year, averaging almost a triple double 16.9/9.7/9.8 through the playoffs. He won't rebound anywhere near that during the season, but he's improved every year of his career so far. I see no reason why he won't bump his points and assists a bit from last year's 12/8. Celtics got more help up front with the addition of Rasheed but still no legit backup PG so the minutes are all Rondo's. Solid pickup here.
58) Nene - Last year rank 22. Really wish his rebounds were higher (7.8 rpg) but he'll contribute in stls, blks, and fg%. And doesn't really hurt you anywhere else. Hopefully last year WASN'T a fluke in terms of health (77 games played). Don't read too much in to that 22 rank from last year and don't reach too far... but imho Nene's a solid pick anywhere in the 50s.
61) Charlie Villanueva - Last year rank 61. Charlie put up his stats last year with just 26 MPG. Now he's on the Pistons who basically have no other legit bigs (Kwame? Old Ben? Wilcox?). I can totally see his minutes climb into the higher 30s... which *should* mean he can only improve upon last year. Maybe not in points (14+ FGA will be hard to top with his trigger happy guards), but at least rebounds if not asts/stls/blocks as well.
63) Mo Williams - Last year rank 24. Another good pick up if you can nab him near here. Lots of pts, 3s, and solid percentages. With Shaq drawing double teams and semi-backup Delonte West in legal troubles... if anything, Mo should improve on his 2.3 3PG and 4.1 apg from last year. Even if you'd had to reach up in the 50s for Mo, he's still a great pick imho.
66) Andre Miller - Last year rank 34. First word out of Portland is that Miller will be coming off the bench. Ignore that 34 rank from last year... Miller might not have lost a step, but minutes will be hard to come by with Portland's depth. You need playtime to rack up the stats... pass on Miller.
68) Andrew Bynum - Last year rank 143. Laker bias aside, I still don't like Bynum. Sure, he'll have the occasional WOW game, but he's gonna disappoint more often than not. On top of injury risks (50 and 35 games played the last 2 seasons), the Lakers are just loaded. He's gonna be fighting Odom for minutes and sometimes they might even roll Artest out there as a four. Pass on this one.
72) Anthony Randolph - Last year rank 185. Randolph showed glimpse of his potential towards the end of the last year when he averaged an impressive 15/10 wiith 1.5 stls and 1 blks over the last 8 games of the season when given starter's minutes. He continued the trend by dominating this year's summer league. Anything can happen when Nellie's the coach, but Randolph *should* be the starter and given 30+ minutes this year. If that happens, I expect this to be an extremely good pick as Randolph can really do a bit of everything, kind of like a G-Wallace type.
73) Paul Millsap - Last year rank 56. That rank is a bit deceiving since Millsap as the starter in Utah is a top 35-40 player. However as a backup to Boozer is a top 80-90 player. So which one are you going to get? Boozer is still on the Jazz roster. The Jazz don't really want Boozer for the future, but they're not gonna just sit Boozer (that will tank his value). But waiting for a trade can wreck your team... what if a deal doesn't go down until the trade deadline? Over half the season would be gone. Avoid this mess and pass Millsap. Draft him next year.
76) Rasheed Wallace - Last year rank 53. 'Sheed's gonna be a backup in Boston this year. KG and Perkins are gonna be the starters and 'Sheed will still have Big Baby competing in minutes. Sure, 'Sheed will be the one in the game in the 4th and if KG goes down, he can get a good boost... but overall, I think it'll be hard for him to crack 28 minutes. Pass.
81) Jason Terry - Last year rank 20. On the one hand, you can think Terry's 19.6 ppg and 2.3 3PG were flukes last year (both career highs). But on the other hand... Terry has always been a SG in a PG's body and last year was the first year he played almost exclusively in the SG role (playing off PG Jason Kidd). I think Terry's points might dip a bit this year... but even 17 ppg with two 3s is fantastic value at this point of the draft. Especially considering his decent %s and low TOs. FWIW, I got him in the 8th round of my first draft his year (overall 90th pick). That was straight robbery and I consider that my best steal of the draft.
83) JR Smith - Last year rank 70. JR Smith was certainly hot at times last year and his 3pt barrages can straight win you games some weeks. Still he's suspended for the first 7 games of the season. That's 2 weeks. He ain't Rashard Lewis... you don't need or want to wait for him. Odds are, he'll get drafted but dropped for some new hotness in the first week or so, so if you really want him, you can pick him off waivers for free if you're quick about it. Pass for now.
88) Chris Kaman - Last year rank 250. Avoid, avoid, avoid. Only 31 and 56 games played in the past two seasons. And he's really only had one awesome season in his 6 year career (that 56 game 07-08 season where he avg. 15.7/12.7). With youngins Blake and DeAndre Jordan waiting on the bench... Kaman's upside is minimal and the downside is downright catastrophic. Let someone else take this gamble. Pass.
90) Wilson Chandler - Last year rank 61. The D'Antoni system is great for players and Chandler is no exception. He averaged 14.4/5.4 with a 3, steal, and a block per game last year. This will just be his 3rd year in the league so there's even more room for improvement. He's like a Marion-lite that plays the 2-3 instead of the 3-4. Even modest bumps in his stats will push him into a top 50 fantasy player. You'll probably have to reach earlier for Chandler, but he'll be worth it.
92) Luis Scola - Last year rank 64. With Yao out for the season, Scola will be expected to carry the bulk of the load upfront for the Rockets. He already averaged 12.7/8.8 last year. I think 14/10 will be an easy target for Scola and even 15/11 doesn't seem outrageous. That's damn good value this late in the draft, especially for a F/C. And he's been durable too... 82 games each the past two seasons. Again, you'll probably have to reach for him, so don't actually wait until the 90s.
95) Andrew Bogut - Last year rank 221. The rank mostly has to do with him only playing 36 games last year. He also only played 66 games in 06-07. But he did play 82 and 78 games in his other two years in the league... so I dunno if it's fair to call him injury prone yet. Still, I just can't shake that iffy feeling with Bogut. And even when healthy, he's a low double-double guy (12-10, 1 blk). That's about on par for an 80ish player... so is it really worth the injury risks with the minimal upside? I'd only draft him if you're short on Cs. If not, pass.
97) Trever Ariza - Last year rank 74. Ariza was a 24 minute role player with the Lakers but with the injury depleted Rockets, he's gonna be a 30+ minute starter and the #2-3 option on the team. Minute projects are hardly accurate, BUT just for kicks... his per 36 minutes from last year projects to 13 pts, 6 rebs, 2.5 steals and a 3. That seems pretty reasonable. And those steals will be almost enough to carry you some weeks. I say draft him.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Draft Picks... Part 1
Right... so who should you draft and when, that's the big question. In general, if you just follow Yahoo's O-Rank and Rank, you'll be *okay*. If the difference between O-Rank and Rank are fairly even, then it's a "safe pick". What you want to watch out for are the large discrepancies, either plus or minus. Here I'll list some of the prominent ones that caught my eye. Players are numbered by their O-Rank.
12) Kevin Garnett - Last year rank 41. Garnett himself says that he's 80-90% healthy but getting better everyday. Early reviews out of training camp shows that he has to wear a knee brace and is showing obvious difficultly making quick lateral movements. He's also 33 and entering his 15th season, personally I'd pass on him in the draft. He's gonna be a lot closer to top 50 than top 12.
16) Caron Butler - Last year rank 36. Injury prone, Butler hasn't played 70 games in the last 3 seasons. Add in the return of Gilbert Arenas (shots taken) and Mike Miller off the WAS bench (minutes played), and at best Butler gives you a repeat performance of last year... which is still 20 spots lower than he's ranked. Pass.
21) Jose Calderon - Last year rank 28. Though not that big of difference between 21 and 28, I think Jose's numbers are gonna drop this year. He now has a legitimate backup that can potentially steal some minutes in Jarret Jack and a new point-forward teammate that can steal his assist in Turkoglu. If he's still there at the end of round 3, fine, pick up Calderon. But don't waste that round 2 pick on hims!
23) Jason Kidd - Last year rank 9. Old reliable. Kidd might have lost a step on the court, but he's still a fantasy monster and surprisingly sturdy with 80+ games played each of the last 3 seasons. His ast numbers dipped a bit last year from 9.5 to 8.7, but with the addition of Marion as a finisher... I think Kidd can inch back towards 10 apg again. He's a solid pick at 23. I'd definately take him there.
30) Kevin Martin - Last year rank 100. One of the most efficient offensive players in the game, but can you really count on him being there? 61 and 51 games played in the past two seasons. I say pass.
31) Gilbert Arenas - Last year rank 404. Early reports say his knees are alright. And now reports say he had a dislocated finger a few weeks ago and that it might be a lingering issue throughout the season. He's only 27 and when he's on, Gil's a top 10 player in the league. However, he's only played 15 games total in the last 2 years, which is obviously terrible. All that said, you *should* avoid him. 'Cept this is the first and best example of take everything I say with a grain of salt because even I ignored my own advice and took him in round 3 of my first draft. Guess I'm just a glutton for punishment ;-) If you remember, I also took Gil in 3 out of 3 leagues back in 2007 when he only played 13 games. =(
35) Troy Murphy - Last year rank 15. Murphey is a steal anywhere at 35. With any luck, you're nabbing him a bit late in early round 4. A double-double FC with two 3s is definately solid in late round 3 and a steal for round 4. He does tend to miss 15-20 games a year though, so hopefully it's not when you need him the most.
36) Rashard Lewis - Last year rank 17. Suspended first 10 games of the season for steroid use. That'll make him unavailable for your first 3 weeks... if you can deal with that, he's a good pick in rounds 3-4 considering he was a top 20 guy last year.
37) Elton Brand - Last year rank 272. Early reports from training camp say he's not showing any ill effects from his shoulder surgery last year. However even before he was injured last year, Brand was having problems meshing with the 76ers full court offense. How will he fair this year? I say let someone else take that gamble, pass.
40) LeMarcus Aldridge - Last year rank 27. I admit I have a bit of a pro-bias for Portland players... but Aldridge is the real deal. Even last year, he was already better than his current top 40 rank. He's only 24 and this is only his 4th season in the league, just from growth/experience, I'd expect him to at least improve modestly over last year. And if Oden pans out at all... that's just less attention from the opposing bigs and more room for Aldridge to operate. Pick him up!
41) Baron Davis - Last year rank 141. Last year was a horrible year statistically for Baron (.370 FG%, really?!?). But even discounting the stats, Baron is injury prone, with only one 70+ game season in the past 8 years. They've shipped out the bad-juju in Zach Randolph and they got an exciting #1 rookie in Blake Griffin... BUT they're still the Clippers. Bad things tend to happen, even IF the player is really trying. I say pass.
47) Marcus Camby - Last year rank 42. The glassman. He had one healthy season two years ago, don't count on that happening again. Add to that a #1 pick (Griffin) waiting on the bench to steal his minutes and I'd say let someone else take the risk on Camby.
48) David Lee - Last year rank 18. The D'Antoni effect is a godsend for contract players and fantasy managers. Lee averaged an elite 16/11 last year and I see no reason why he can't offer a repeat performance. Rookie Jordan Hill won't really threaten for minutes right away and even if D'Antoni goes small with lots of wings... I expect Lee to still stay in the game a center to clean up the boards. For a late 4th rounder, Lee's a steal.
Alrighty... that gets us to the top 50 players. More to come soon!
12) Kevin Garnett - Last year rank 41. Garnett himself says that he's 80-90% healthy but getting better everyday. Early reviews out of training camp shows that he has to wear a knee brace and is showing obvious difficultly making quick lateral movements. He's also 33 and entering his 15th season, personally I'd pass on him in the draft. He's gonna be a lot closer to top 50 than top 12.
16) Caron Butler - Last year rank 36. Injury prone, Butler hasn't played 70 games in the last 3 seasons. Add in the return of Gilbert Arenas (shots taken) and Mike Miller off the WAS bench (minutes played), and at best Butler gives you a repeat performance of last year... which is still 20 spots lower than he's ranked. Pass.
21) Jose Calderon - Last year rank 28. Though not that big of difference between 21 and 28, I think Jose's numbers are gonna drop this year. He now has a legitimate backup that can potentially steal some minutes in Jarret Jack and a new point-forward teammate that can steal his assist in Turkoglu. If he's still there at the end of round 3, fine, pick up Calderon. But don't waste that round 2 pick on hims!
23) Jason Kidd - Last year rank 9. Old reliable. Kidd might have lost a step on the court, but he's still a fantasy monster and surprisingly sturdy with 80+ games played each of the last 3 seasons. His ast numbers dipped a bit last year from 9.5 to 8.7, but with the addition of Marion as a finisher... I think Kidd can inch back towards 10 apg again. He's a solid pick at 23. I'd definately take him there.
30) Kevin Martin - Last year rank 100. One of the most efficient offensive players in the game, but can you really count on him being there? 61 and 51 games played in the past two seasons. I say pass.
31) Gilbert Arenas - Last year rank 404. Early reports say his knees are alright. And now reports say he had a dislocated finger a few weeks ago and that it might be a lingering issue throughout the season. He's only 27 and when he's on, Gil's a top 10 player in the league. However, he's only played 15 games total in the last 2 years, which is obviously terrible. All that said, you *should* avoid him. 'Cept this is the first and best example of take everything I say with a grain of salt because even I ignored my own advice and took him in round 3 of my first draft. Guess I'm just a glutton for punishment ;-) If you remember, I also took Gil in 3 out of 3 leagues back in 2007 when he only played 13 games. =(
35) Troy Murphy - Last year rank 15. Murphey is a steal anywhere at 35. With any luck, you're nabbing him a bit late in early round 4. A double-double FC with two 3s is definately solid in late round 3 and a steal for round 4. He does tend to miss 15-20 games a year though, so hopefully it's not when you need him the most.
36) Rashard Lewis - Last year rank 17. Suspended first 10 games of the season for steroid use. That'll make him unavailable for your first 3 weeks... if you can deal with that, he's a good pick in rounds 3-4 considering he was a top 20 guy last year.
37) Elton Brand - Last year rank 272. Early reports from training camp say he's not showing any ill effects from his shoulder surgery last year. However even before he was injured last year, Brand was having problems meshing with the 76ers full court offense. How will he fair this year? I say let someone else take that gamble, pass.
40) LeMarcus Aldridge - Last year rank 27. I admit I have a bit of a pro-bias for Portland players... but Aldridge is the real deal. Even last year, he was already better than his current top 40 rank. He's only 24 and this is only his 4th season in the league, just from growth/experience, I'd expect him to at least improve modestly over last year. And if Oden pans out at all... that's just less attention from the opposing bigs and more room for Aldridge to operate. Pick him up!
41) Baron Davis - Last year rank 141. Last year was a horrible year statistically for Baron (.370 FG%, really?!?). But even discounting the stats, Baron is injury prone, with only one 70+ game season in the past 8 years. They've shipped out the bad-juju in Zach Randolph and they got an exciting #1 rookie in Blake Griffin... BUT they're still the Clippers. Bad things tend to happen, even IF the player is really trying. I say pass.
47) Marcus Camby - Last year rank 42. The glassman. He had one healthy season two years ago, don't count on that happening again. Add to that a #1 pick (Griffin) waiting on the bench to steal his minutes and I'd say let someone else take the risk on Camby.
48) David Lee - Last year rank 18. The D'Antoni effect is a godsend for contract players and fantasy managers. Lee averaged an elite 16/11 last year and I see no reason why he can't offer a repeat performance. Rookie Jordan Hill won't really threaten for minutes right away and even if D'Antoni goes small with lots of wings... I expect Lee to still stay in the game a center to clean up the boards. For a late 4th rounder, Lee's a steal.
Alrighty... that gets us to the top 50 players. More to come soon!
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Fantasy Tip Off 2009
YAY! Fantasy basketball season is finally upon us. You all know my creds... but if not, here's a reminder... just add two more 1st place and another 3rd place finish on those totals for 2008 ;-)
Anyhoo, I usually like to start by emphasizing the NBA schedules. It should be obvious that 1-2 extra games by your superstar during a crucial fantasy playoff week can be a huge difference maker. Sure, your superstar can get hurt, his team can be tanking/resting due to standings, hell, he can even can traded mid-season. We can't control those variables, so we just have to make due with what we do know now. That said, here's the breakdown on games played for each team during the crucial fantasy playoff weeks.
Schedules seemed a lot more important last year, when there was a clear winner and loser in games played (14 by PHI and 10 by the HOU). This year, the schedule is a lot more even and a bit less exciting. There's 6 teams with 14 games played, no teams with 10, and 3 teams with 11 games. Also, no teams with 5 or 2 games in Playoff Week 2 (the most important week imho). The Jazz do have 5 games in Playoff Week 1, so if you usually find yourself sneaking into the playoffs, you might want to slot D-Will or Okur a bit higher (the Boozer/Millsap situation is a crapshoot, I'd avoid that altogether if I were you). Personally, Week 1 games don't really matter to me, cuz I count on getting a top 2 record for the regular season and earning a bye for Week 1, cuz I'm awesome ;-)
Looking over the schedule the only teams I'd value a bit more would be the Rockets, Wizards, and Thunder. The only teams I'd value a bit less would be Cavs, Hornets, and Blazers... though the difference is really so small this year, that the edge you gain in schedule evaluation might not be worth the trouble of drafting a Caron Butler or passing a LeMarcus Aldridge. And if you have a shot at Lebron James or Chris Paul, you draft them, EVERY TIME!
Okay, so my "schedule" advice probably won't be very helpful this year... so here's some extra stuff for this post. Yahoo now has a pretty convenient feature showing the average pick # of each player by all of Yahoo's leagues. That will give you a pretty good idea of when a player will probably get taken. Depending on where you are in the draft order... it can get confusing when to take the player though. So here's a couple of simple spreadsheets for you to download... so you know exactly what pick # is in what round. Say for example, you were dead set on nabbing Black Griffin (avg. 67.4). If you were 6th or later in draft order, you can afford to take in round 6. If you were 5 or higher in draft order though, you gotta take him in round 5, cuz chances are, he won't make it back to you in round 6.
Another way to use the sheet is to scout your potential team ahead of time. If you know your draft position (either by logging in early to an online draft or in a offline draft), you can see what players will *probably* be available at each of your picks and you can plan accordingly. Let's say you're top 3 in draft order and you're taking guards early on... make sure there's centers you like in the 70s or 90s based on avg. pick. Don't just assume a Scola or Hawes will be available late... both of them are averaging in the late 80s, if you're top 3 in draft order... you'll have to reach up for them by round 7... else by round 8-9 you're gonna get stuck with chafe like J-O or Brad Miller. During the draft, you can also look up potential avg. picks and plug in some players you'd like at each of your slots on the spreadsheet... it'll give you something to do while waiting for your next pick and maybe let you craft a better team.
Alrighty... that's all I got for now. Check in later this week when I'll have give you some concrete names to watch out for (or avoid). And also a walkthrough of my first draft this season.
Anyhoo, I usually like to start by emphasizing the NBA schedules. It should be obvious that 1-2 extra games by your superstar during a crucial fantasy playoff week can be a huge difference maker. Sure, your superstar can get hurt, his team can be tanking/resting due to standings, hell, he can even can traded mid-season. We can't control those variables, so we just have to make due with what we do know now. That said, here's the breakdown on games played for each team during the crucial fantasy playoff weeks.
Schedules seemed a lot more important last year, when there was a clear winner and loser in games played (14 by PHI and 10 by the HOU). This year, the schedule is a lot more even and a bit less exciting. There's 6 teams with 14 games played, no teams with 10, and 3 teams with 11 games. Also, no teams with 5 or 2 games in Playoff Week 2 (the most important week imho). The Jazz do have 5 games in Playoff Week 1, so if you usually find yourself sneaking into the playoffs, you might want to slot D-Will or Okur a bit higher (the Boozer/Millsap situation is a crapshoot, I'd avoid that altogether if I were you). Personally, Week 1 games don't really matter to me, cuz I count on getting a top 2 record for the regular season and earning a bye for Week 1, cuz I'm awesome ;-)
Looking over the schedule the only teams I'd value a bit more would be the Rockets, Wizards, and Thunder. The only teams I'd value a bit less would be Cavs, Hornets, and Blazers... though the difference is really so small this year, that the edge you gain in schedule evaluation might not be worth the trouble of drafting a Caron Butler or passing a LeMarcus Aldridge. And if you have a shot at Lebron James or Chris Paul, you draft them, EVERY TIME!
Okay, so my "schedule" advice probably won't be very helpful this year... so here's some extra stuff for this post. Yahoo now has a pretty convenient feature showing the average pick # of each player by all of Yahoo's leagues. That will give you a pretty good idea of when a player will probably get taken. Depending on where you are in the draft order... it can get confusing when to take the player though. So here's a couple of simple spreadsheets for you to download... so you know exactly what pick # is in what round. Say for example, you were dead set on nabbing Black Griffin (avg. 67.4). If you were 6th or later in draft order, you can afford to take in round 6. If you were 5 or higher in draft order though, you gotta take him in round 5, cuz chances are, he won't make it back to you in round 6.
Another way to use the sheet is to scout your potential team ahead of time. If you know your draft position (either by logging in early to an online draft or in a offline draft), you can see what players will *probably* be available at each of your picks and you can plan accordingly. Let's say you're top 3 in draft order and you're taking guards early on... make sure there's centers you like in the 70s or 90s based on avg. pick. Don't just assume a Scola or Hawes will be available late... both of them are averaging in the late 80s, if you're top 3 in draft order... you'll have to reach up for them by round 7... else by round 8-9 you're gonna get stuck with chafe like J-O or Brad Miller. During the draft, you can also look up potential avg. picks and plug in some players you'd like at each of your slots on the spreadsheet... it'll give you something to do while waiting for your next pick and maybe let you craft a better team.
Alrighty... that's all I got for now. Check in later this week when I'll have give you some concrete names to watch out for (or avoid). And also a walkthrough of my first draft this season.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Near, far, wherever you are...
LOL, new antics by Ron Artest. I was always high on Ron Artest... it sucks that he's a Laker now so I can't really root for him. But this is just pure awesome and easily up there with any of the crazy fan things Shaq has done. I can't paraphrase it to do it justice... so here's Artest's own words about what happened, courtesy of Sports Radio Interviews. And oh yeah, videos at the bottom too!
What happened was I had a contest; all LA fans get access to Ron Artest. So, what I did, I gave my number out and my Twitter out, so I speak directly to my fans and I give contests - I invite people places, I go to people’s houses. So, this one contest, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, I need something to do. Whoever comes up with the most interesting thing to do, I will come and visit you anywhere you’re at. Some people asked me to be their best man, come play basketball, a bunch of other things. The one thing that was interesting was the Filipino food; this whole family asked me to come to their house and eat Filipino food, and I have a Filipino son, half-black, half-Filipino. And, I knew that the Filipinos, they love karaoke, some Vietnamese people, a couple other cultures, they love to do karaoke. So, what I didn’t think was they would ask me to do karaoke. So, the first night, we went over, we had dinner, we laughed, I got outta there. It was the third day, me and my friends was hungry, so we said, ‘Hey, what about calling the Filipino family again and eat some more dinner, some more free dinner.’ So, we go over there, eat some free dinner, by the end of the night, they wanted to do karaoke. I’m like, ‘I’m not doing karaoke.’ The mom said, ‘No, Ron. You have to do karaoke, please do karaoke.’ I said, ‘Ah, are you serious?’ Four songs passed and I said, ‘Nah, I’m not doing this karaoke.’ She asked me again, I respected her, I did the karaoke, I did Celine Dion, and it was just classic, classic footage. I was gonna save it for my reality show but I just thought the fans probably wanna see it now. I actually did a lot of crazy things in a house that night that I had never been in. I was eating dinner, laughing at one of my friends, and I had some gas… So, now, I’m laughing at my friend, I’m laughing so hard at the dinner table, and I just let one loose: PRRAAHAHAAHAHAHAH. Real loud! Real loud, Mr. Carmichael. I’m not releasing that footage. (Host: Is there footage somewhere?) There’s footage, I might let people see it one day, it was funny. So, tomorrow I’m gonna go see a Mexican family and I’m gonna go eat some Mexican food.”
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Rubio not coming to the NBA
Well, at least not for a while. The latest news is that Rubio has just signed a 6 year contract with Regal Barcelona (his previous Euro team was DKV Joventut). No idea how much he's getting paid per year, but Barcelona paid ~$3.7 million Euros ($5.3 million U.S.) for his buyout from Joventut. There's supposedly an affordable buyout in 2011... so that's the most likely time for Rubio to come over. I guess Rubio and Minnesota fans will just have to wait two more years. =( The link is in Spanish but that's the gist of it.
http://www.marca.com/2009/08/26/baloncesto/acb/1251278631.html
You know... this situation probably could have all been avoided by some better planning by NBA and Minnesota office folks. Rubio had said he was willing to come to the NBA this year if he was a top 3 pick, but instead, he fell to 5th. Since NBA rookie contracts are locked into a sliding scale, the difference between being a 3rd pick or a 5th pick is about ~$3 million U.S. FWIW, the difference between 4th and 5th pick is about $1.5 mil.
IMO, at the least, OKC or SAC should have explored a draft swap with MIN. James Harden (OKC) and Tyreke Evans (SAC) would have still been available at the 5th pick. I mean, if OKC took Rubio at 3, SAC would still take Evans at 4. I don't think SAC would have taken Harden (a SG) considering their "franchise" player, Kevin Martin, is a SG too. And obvious if SAC took Rubio at 4, Evans would be available at 5. Now, why would the other teams want to help MIN out like this with a pick swap? Cuz they get to pay their rookie a bit less... that's cash savings. $3 mil for OKC or $1.5 for SAC if they had made the trade. MIN probably would have thrown in a 2nd rounder or too just to sweeten the deal. But instead... now we all have to wait for Rubio. =(
And you know what... even when Rubio comes in two years... the situation in Minn. is just gonna be f*cked. I mean, suppose their 6th pick this year, 6' PG, Jonny Flynn turns out to be a decent PG in this league. Then what? And at least to start in 2011, Flynn will *look* better than Rubio, considering he'd have 2 years of the NBA grind under his belt and 2 years with the Minn. system and chemistry with the other players.
You can't just demote him to the bench for Rubio. Not after he's earned the starting job and played in front of Minn. fans for two years. That'd be a slap in the face. If you deal him, it's gonna be pennies on the dollar considering Flynn will still be on his rookie deal and everybody in the league knows your team is in a quandary. You can probably start with Rubio off the bench... but how long is that gonna last before Rubio starts wanting more minutes. Half a season, if that? In Rubio's eyes, he's gonna be a legit star in Europe by then and he's paying money out of his own pocket to come to the NBA... and that's not to be a backup PG. This situation is just gonna get messier and messier. Good job Khan!
And yeah, I know I haven't been updating much at all this summer. Things will pick up in Oct. once we're in fantasy basketball season. I got a few good ideas in my head so I check back then!
http://www.marca.com/2009/08/26/baloncesto/acb/1251278631.html
You know... this situation probably could have all been avoided by some better planning by NBA and Minnesota office folks. Rubio had said he was willing to come to the NBA this year if he was a top 3 pick, but instead, he fell to 5th. Since NBA rookie contracts are locked into a sliding scale, the difference between being a 3rd pick or a 5th pick is about ~$3 million U.S. FWIW, the difference between 4th and 5th pick is about $1.5 mil.
IMO, at the least, OKC or SAC should have explored a draft swap with MIN. James Harden (OKC) and Tyreke Evans (SAC) would have still been available at the 5th pick. I mean, if OKC took Rubio at 3, SAC would still take Evans at 4. I don't think SAC would have taken Harden (a SG) considering their "franchise" player, Kevin Martin, is a SG too. And obvious if SAC took Rubio at 4, Evans would be available at 5. Now, why would the other teams want to help MIN out like this with a pick swap? Cuz they get to pay their rookie a bit less... that's cash savings. $3 mil for OKC or $1.5 for SAC if they had made the trade. MIN probably would have thrown in a 2nd rounder or too just to sweeten the deal. But instead... now we all have to wait for Rubio. =(
And you know what... even when Rubio comes in two years... the situation in Minn. is just gonna be f*cked. I mean, suppose their 6th pick this year, 6' PG, Jonny Flynn turns out to be a decent PG in this league. Then what? And at least to start in 2011, Flynn will *look* better than Rubio, considering he'd have 2 years of the NBA grind under his belt and 2 years with the Minn. system and chemistry with the other players.
You can't just demote him to the bench for Rubio. Not after he's earned the starting job and played in front of Minn. fans for two years. That'd be a slap in the face. If you deal him, it's gonna be pennies on the dollar considering Flynn will still be on his rookie deal and everybody in the league knows your team is in a quandary. You can probably start with Rubio off the bench... but how long is that gonna last before Rubio starts wanting more minutes. Half a season, if that? In Rubio's eyes, he's gonna be a legit star in Europe by then and he's paying money out of his own pocket to come to the NBA... and that's not to be a backup PG. This situation is just gonna get messier and messier. Good job Khan!
And yeah, I know I haven't been updating much at all this summer. Things will pick up in Oct. once we're in fantasy basketball season. I got a few good ideas in my head so I check back then!
Friday, July 24, 2009
Starbury... Keeping it Real
Random post... but apparently Marbury is streaming LIVE right now, talking about everything. If he's still on whenever you read this... I guarantee it's better than anything on TV right now.
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/have-at-it
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/have-at-it
Monday, July 13, 2009
I really should be a GM
So, apparently the Orlando Magic have decided to match Dallas's offer for Marcin Gortat. I'm pretty sure the offer was for the full MLE so probably ~$5.5 million. While I think the Polish Hammer is totally worth that in a vacuum, Orlando do already have Dwight. $5.5 mil is a whole a lot of money for 12 min. a night from your backup center. And consider the fact that the Magic also just signed Brandon Bass to a 4 year, $18 mil deal... that's $10 mil between Gortat and Bass. Two role players at best for the Magic.
Instead of those two deals, why not just cough up the extra million and keep Turkoglu instead? At first most thought the Magic wouldn't keep Turk because of salary and tax implications but they practically spent the same amount on Bass and Gortat combined. I would think a line up of Nelson/Carter/Turkoglu/Lewis/Howard is a whole lot scarier than Nelson/Carter/Lewis/Bass/Howard... with Gortat being like 9th man off the bench. (anybody want to take a bet that Pietrus, Riddick, and Anderson will all avg. more minutes in an ORL uni than Gortat?) I mean that first lineup would rival the Lakers in firepower and having four 3 point bombers around Dwight is a whole better than 3. Now, I'm sure the Magic will be fine... but the thing is, if they were willing to spend this much all along, they could have been SOOO much better.
On other GMing news around the league, apparently one of the richest owners in sports (ex-Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen) is playing hardball with Brandon Roy's extension. Roy thinks he deserves a max 5 year deal, but Portland is only offering a 4 year deal (though still maxed). Really? I don't even understand why this is an issue. Yeah, yeah, it's not my money... but Roy has shown that he's an elite player and easily top 10-15 in the entire league. How do you NOT max him? And to be petty over one year? IMHO, if your young superstar WANTS to stay with you for another year, that's a GOOD thing. Who doesn't think Cleveland or Miami would like to worry about James' or Wade's impending free agency until the summer of 2011? Now, I'm sure this is all just posturing by the Portland front office and eventually Roy will get his deal. But if that's true... why bother with these number games at all? It's just building unnecessary animosity between the player, organization, and fans.
And on a similar note... that 4 year number rears its ugly head again in the Millsap situation. To catch up... Portland offered Paul Millsap a 4 year, $32 million deal last Friday. It averages out to $8 mil a year, but is front loaded, so Millsap will get about ~$11 million in the first year with descending amounts in the next 3 years. While that it certainly a large offer it is by no mean unfair and not nearly "toxic" enough to persuade the Jazz not to match. Portland could have made it much more difficult for the Jazz by raising the average salary to $9-10 mil (Portland has the cap space after all) and/or adding a 5th year... which also allows them to "front-load" even more money.
IMHO, the Jazz will match and try to deal Boozer. If they can't get anything of value for Boozer... worst case they can do a straight salary dump. He's only due 1 year left at $12 mil for next season anyways. They were entirely prepared to just let Boozer walk earlier this summer so if I don't think the Jazz brass would be too upset if they had to just give him away. DET, OKC, and MEM are all still under the cap. No need for any teams to give up any picks or other young talents. Just Boozer for straight dump or maybe the other teams can even send back a small $3-4 mil unwanted contract to Utah (Kwame, Wilkins, etc.) to offset Boozer's 1 year salary a bit. Would all three say really "no" to Boozer if all they had to do was pay him for 1 year? I doubt it.
Instead of those two deals, why not just cough up the extra million and keep Turkoglu instead? At first most thought the Magic wouldn't keep Turk because of salary and tax implications but they practically spent the same amount on Bass and Gortat combined. I would think a line up of Nelson/Carter/Turkoglu/Lewis/Howard is a whole lot scarier than Nelson/Carter/Lewis/Bass/Howard... with Gortat being like 9th man off the bench. (anybody want to take a bet that Pietrus, Riddick, and Anderson will all avg. more minutes in an ORL uni than Gortat?) I mean that first lineup would rival the Lakers in firepower and having four 3 point bombers around Dwight is a whole better than 3. Now, I'm sure the Magic will be fine... but the thing is, if they were willing to spend this much all along, they could have been SOOO much better.
On other GMing news around the league, apparently one of the richest owners in sports (ex-Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen) is playing hardball with Brandon Roy's extension. Roy thinks he deserves a max 5 year deal, but Portland is only offering a 4 year deal (though still maxed). Really? I don't even understand why this is an issue. Yeah, yeah, it's not my money... but Roy has shown that he's an elite player and easily top 10-15 in the entire league. How do you NOT max him? And to be petty over one year? IMHO, if your young superstar WANTS to stay with you for another year, that's a GOOD thing. Who doesn't think Cleveland or Miami would like to worry about James' or Wade's impending free agency until the summer of 2011? Now, I'm sure this is all just posturing by the Portland front office and eventually Roy will get his deal. But if that's true... why bother with these number games at all? It's just building unnecessary animosity between the player, organization, and fans.
And on a similar note... that 4 year number rears its ugly head again in the Millsap situation. To catch up... Portland offered Paul Millsap a 4 year, $32 million deal last Friday. It averages out to $8 mil a year, but is front loaded, so Millsap will get about ~$11 million in the first year with descending amounts in the next 3 years. While that it certainly a large offer it is by no mean unfair and not nearly "toxic" enough to persuade the Jazz not to match. Portland could have made it much more difficult for the Jazz by raising the average salary to $9-10 mil (Portland has the cap space after all) and/or adding a 5th year... which also allows them to "front-load" even more money.
IMHO, the Jazz will match and try to deal Boozer. If they can't get anything of value for Boozer... worst case they can do a straight salary dump. He's only due 1 year left at $12 mil for next season anyways. They were entirely prepared to just let Boozer walk earlier this summer so if I don't think the Jazz brass would be too upset if they had to just give him away. DET, OKC, and MEM are all still under the cap. No need for any teams to give up any picks or other young talents. Just Boozer for straight dump or maybe the other teams can even send back a small $3-4 mil unwanted contract to Utah (Kwame, Wilkins, etc.) to offset Boozer's 1 year salary a bit. Would all three say really "no" to Boozer if all they had to do was pay him for 1 year? I doubt it.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
The Spanish Armada is Sinking
So the newest rumor via ESPN is that Rudy Fernandez is outraged by the courtship of Turkoglu by the Blazers and that Rudy is on the verge of demanding a trade or going back to Europe.
For those not in the know... the previous latest rumor is that Portland is about to offer Turkoglu a 5 year / $50 million dollar deal. As for why Rudy is upset... basically he sees Turk's addition as a threat to his role on the team and I don't blame him at all. They both serve a similar purpose in terms of ball handling and shooting 3s. Even though Rudy averaged the 5th most minutes of any Blazer at 25 mpg last year, it's only natural to expect an increase in minutes from your rookie year. But if you add Turk's 30-32 minutes a game to Portland's already tight rotation, where are the minutes going to come from? That's not even considering the returning Martell Webster who will want 20+ minutes as well.
It's also worth noting that most Blazer fans reaction has been negative so far (judging from forum posts over at RealGM) calling him selfish and a whiner. It's really sad/shocking how fast some fans turn on their players. I mean, Rudy was a HUGE fan favorite last year among Blazer fans. And Turk at $10 million for 5 years isn't even that good of a deal. Those Blazer fans are gonna be kicking themselves in a couple years when Rudy is blowing up like an all-star on another team (on a rookie contract!) while they're stuck with mediocre Turkoglu at $10 mil per.
The thing is, Rudy probably sees himself as a starter quality player in this league and I completely agree with him. If the Blazers want him off the bench then he needs to at least get the Ginobili/Terry treatment. That means 27-28 minutes a night and be in the game in clutch moments. That's a difficult task with Roy and Turk ahead and Outlaw next to him on the depth chart.
I really do hope Rudy's situation works out and he stays a Blazer. IMHO, Portland GM Kevin Pritchard REALLY needs to condense that lineup. If he's so inclined to sign Turk, then go ahead, but ask Rudy to reserve judgment until mid-summer. By then, he needs to jettison Webster, Outlaw, and probably Batum as well for low usage guys. Straight salary dump if absolutely necessary. If not... trade him to Minnesota! Maybe that way we can see Rubio this year as well (new Spanish Connection).
For those not in the know... the previous latest rumor is that Portland is about to offer Turkoglu a 5 year / $50 million dollar deal. As for why Rudy is upset... basically he sees Turk's addition as a threat to his role on the team and I don't blame him at all. They both serve a similar purpose in terms of ball handling and shooting 3s. Even though Rudy averaged the 5th most minutes of any Blazer at 25 mpg last year, it's only natural to expect an increase in minutes from your rookie year. But if you add Turk's 30-32 minutes a game to Portland's already tight rotation, where are the minutes going to come from? That's not even considering the returning Martell Webster who will want 20+ minutes as well.
It's also worth noting that most Blazer fans reaction has been negative so far (judging from forum posts over at RealGM) calling him selfish and a whiner. It's really sad/shocking how fast some fans turn on their players. I mean, Rudy was a HUGE fan favorite last year among Blazer fans. And Turk at $10 million for 5 years isn't even that good of a deal. Those Blazer fans are gonna be kicking themselves in a couple years when Rudy is blowing up like an all-star on another team (on a rookie contract!) while they're stuck with mediocre Turkoglu at $10 mil per.
The thing is, Rudy probably sees himself as a starter quality player in this league and I completely agree with him. If the Blazers want him off the bench then he needs to at least get the Ginobili/Terry treatment. That means 27-28 minutes a night and be in the game in clutch moments. That's a difficult task with Roy and Turk ahead and Outlaw next to him on the depth chart.
I really do hope Rudy's situation works out and he stays a Blazer. IMHO, Portland GM Kevin Pritchard REALLY needs to condense that lineup. If he's so inclined to sign Turk, then go ahead, but ask Rudy to reserve judgment until mid-summer. By then, he needs to jettison Webster, Outlaw, and probably Batum as well for low usage guys. Straight salary dump if absolutely necessary. If not... trade him to Minnesota! Maybe that way we can see Rubio this year as well (new Spanish Connection).
Dolla Dolla Bills, Y'All
Long time no post... but I just read this today and had to share. SI just published their top 50 highest paid American athletes for the year. No surprise, Tiger Woods is way ahead of the pack at $99 million for last year and that's actually down from the previous year. First basketball player is James at $42 mil, then Shaq, Garnett, Kobe, Iverson, yada, yada. That's all expected. The sad/funny part comes at #30 and 31... Rashard Lewis and Shawn Marion. LOL... that's a shammockery of the NBA salary system and economic model if there ever was one. I mean, sure lots of the people on the list are making way more than they deserve right now (i.e. Shaq & AI), but at least they were worth that much at some point of their contracts. But Lewis and Marion? A couple of third options on winning teams? And the fact that this is just the 2nd year of Rashard's 6 year, $118 million dollar deal means that we'll be seeing his name on this list for years to come.
You can check out the list yourself here...
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/more/specials/fortunate50/2009/index.html
You can check out the list yourself here...
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/more/specials/fortunate50/2009/index.html
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Sunday, May 31, 2009
So long Cavs
I know hindsight is 20/20 and all, but I bet the Cavs sure wish they had made a play for Shaq at the trade deadline now. I mean, if they had offered Wally/Pavlovic for Shaq... I bet the Suns would have taken it in a heartbeat (Wally is an expiring and Pavlovic only has $2 mil guaranteed next year... that'd save the Suns ~$17 mil next year, not including tax). Hell, even a bigger trade of Wally/Pavlovic/Wallace for Shaq/J-Rich probably would have gotten done as well. I mean, yeah, the Cavs were all scared of messing with their chemistry and defense and all... but Varejao and Big Z's defense weren't much to write home about either. The Cavs defense got shredded by Dwight to the tune of 25.8 pts, 13 rebs, on 65% shooting for the series. For a comparison, Perkins and the Garnett-less Celtics frontline "contained" Dwight to the tune of 16.4 pts, 17 rebs, on 55% shooting. Keep in mind that the rebounding differential is mostly due to the higher volume of shots (attempted and missed) by the Celts. Offensive rebound wise, Dwight averaged 4 per in both series. If this loss ends up tipping James on the decision to leave Cleveland, the CLE front office is gonna be kicking themselves for YEARS to come. What an opportunity wasted... sad, sad, sad.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Another Suns Draft Failure
Though its technically old news, this was new (surprisingly) to me... but apparently Marcin Gortat (aka "The Polish Hammer") was a 2nd round pick of the Suns back in 2005. Good job Phoenix front office and Mike D'Antoni... that's ANOTHER good solid young building block that you gave up for CASH CONSIDERATIONS. I hope that million dollars or two feels good in your pocket books while the Suns sit at home this spring.
I know Marcin's not a star by any means but he's a legit 7 footer and banger who would be great as the 1st big off the bench and a decent starter in a pinch. Basically everything you would WANT Robin Lopez to be (but probably never will). And for those that think I'm overhyping a scrub... in 3 games as a starter this season (when Dwight was out), the Polish Hammer averaged a double-double with 10 pts, 11.7 rebs, and 3 blks, in 33 minutes resulting in a 2-1 record. And when Dwight was suspended for game 6 of the Philly series, Marcin came through with a 11 pt, 15 reb, 4 stl performance in 40 minutes for a closeout playoff win against the 76ers (on the road too!).
Of course, this is not first, nor the biggest blunder of the PHX front office in recent years. No, those mistakes have been well documented. Luol Deng (7th, 2004), Nate Robinson (21st, 2005), Rajon Rondo (21st, 2006), Rudy Fernandez (24th, 2007)... all traded away for cash. Way to mortgage you future guys! Now I know if the Suns HAD kept some of these picks then of course records/draft positions would have been different in subsequent years, so its likely they would not have gotten ALL of these players. And also, in most cases the Suns were probably picking for other teams so its not for certain they would have picked the same players if they were going to keep them. Still though, its a nice example of all the wasted opportunities that the Phoenix Suns COULD have had. Its one thing to screw up once or twice in a draft (Darko anybody?) but to do some in 4 CONSECUTIVE drafts, I mean, come on... that has to be record or something.
Seriously, from now on, they should just send out feelers to let other teams *think* PHX is gonna sell their pick and get an idea of who the other teams are gonna take, then just draft the guys themselves.
I know Marcin's not a star by any means but he's a legit 7 footer and banger who would be great as the 1st big off the bench and a decent starter in a pinch. Basically everything you would WANT Robin Lopez to be (but probably never will). And for those that think I'm overhyping a scrub... in 3 games as a starter this season (when Dwight was out), the Polish Hammer averaged a double-double with 10 pts, 11.7 rebs, and 3 blks, in 33 minutes resulting in a 2-1 record. And when Dwight was suspended for game 6 of the Philly series, Marcin came through with a 11 pt, 15 reb, 4 stl performance in 40 minutes for a closeout playoff win against the 76ers (on the road too!).
Of course, this is not first, nor the biggest blunder of the PHX front office in recent years. No, those mistakes have been well documented. Luol Deng (7th, 2004), Nate Robinson (21st, 2005), Rajon Rondo (21st, 2006), Rudy Fernandez (24th, 2007)... all traded away for cash. Way to mortgage you future guys! Now I know if the Suns HAD kept some of these picks then of course records/draft positions would have been different in subsequent years, so its likely they would not have gotten ALL of these players. And also, in most cases the Suns were probably picking for other teams so its not for certain they would have picked the same players if they were going to keep them. Still though, its a nice example of all the wasted opportunities that the Phoenix Suns COULD have had. Its one thing to screw up once or twice in a draft (Darko anybody?) but to do some in 4 CONSECUTIVE drafts, I mean, come on... that has to be record or something.
Seriously, from now on, they should just send out feelers to let other teams *think* PHX is gonna sell their pick and get an idea of who the other teams are gonna take, then just draft the guys themselves.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
UNSTOPPABLE
Here's another quicky... though I'm finding most of the Kobe/LeBron puppet commercials to be a bit underwhelming... this one is hilarious.
Also, we're less than a month away from the NBA draft (6/25). YAY!!!!!
Second also... GO NUGGETS!!!! (wow, never thought I'd be cheering on a Carmelo team, but anybody but Kobe, right?)
Also, we're less than a month away from the NBA draft (6/25). YAY!!!!!
Second also... GO NUGGETS!!!! (wow, never thought I'd be cheering on a Carmelo team, but anybody but Kobe, right?)
Friday, May 22, 2009
Who's the Boss
LOL... quicky, but in case there was ANY doubt who's calling the shots in Cleveland. Prior to game 2 of the CLE/ORL series, Sasha Pavolvic has played all of 4 min. in the last THREE games combined. That includes TWO double digit wins in Atlanta. Then after game 1 of the Orlando series, Lebron James publicly lobbies for more minutes for Sasha.
"I think Sasha can be huge for us," James said. "Mentally, if Sasha's in tune, he could be really good for us with his 6-7 or 6-8, 240-pound frame, he could really help us on the defensive end, and he's also an offensive threat. You just cannot leave him open on the offensive end because he can make shots. Mentally, if Sasha's in tune, which I think he can be, and if he's called upon, I think he can be really good for us. We need that type of active body on the defensive end who can take a little bit of the load of myself and Delonte. ... We could use him out there."
So what happens in game 2? Sasha is the first guy off the bench. In fact, as of this post (7 minutes left in the 2nd qtr) Sasha has already logged 8+ minutes and more than DOUBLE that of his last 3 games COMBINED. Maybe they should take back Mike Brown's COY award and give it to James instead ;-)
FWIW... as of this post, James was right. Sasha has played well (3/3 from the field, 7 pts total) and a +18 for the game with the Cavs enjoying an early 23 pt. lead (43-20).
"I think Sasha can be huge for us," James said. "Mentally, if Sasha's in tune, he could be really good for us with his 6-7 or 6-8, 240-pound frame, he could really help us on the defensive end, and he's also an offensive threat. You just cannot leave him open on the offensive end because he can make shots. Mentally, if Sasha's in tune, which I think he can be, and if he's called upon, I think he can be really good for us. We need that type of active body on the defensive end who can take a little bit of the load of myself and Delonte. ... We could use him out there."
So what happens in game 2? Sasha is the first guy off the bench. In fact, as of this post (7 minutes left in the 2nd qtr) Sasha has already logged 8+ minutes and more than DOUBLE that of his last 3 games COMBINED. Maybe they should take back Mike Brown's COY award and give it to James instead ;-)
FWIW... as of this post, James was right. Sasha has played well (3/3 from the field, 7 pts total) and a +18 for the game with the Cavs enjoying an early 23 pt. lead (43-20).
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Slow Season
Hi all, sorry about the lack of updates. To be honest, after the Suns got eliminated from playoff contention, I just haven't been THAT interested in basketball. Hence the lack of updates. I guess I'm what Shaq really despises, and that's a frontrunner. At least Shaq knows what he's talking about;-)
Anyhoo... lets see what's been going on in the month or so since my last post. Well, I managed to get out to Vegas on the weekend of the 28th. Tried out my "Friday Lines" on the Saturday games and placed a $10 bet on every spread and over/under (with exception of the DET/WAS game since that was Gil's first game back and I had no idea what to expect from him or the Wiz). 14 NBA bets total. Overall, I pretty much split all my NBA bets, which I guess is typical, since the odds are designed to be 50/50 by Vegas. What little profit I did make, I made from the March Madness games. $40 on Oklahoma over Syracuse and $20 on UConn over Purdue. Yay! I dunno... I made money betting on what I know the least (college bball) while I barely broke even on what I follow the most (NBA)... not sure if that's a good thing or not. Maybe I'm just full of hot air ;-)
On the fantasy front... I missed out on the playoffs in all three of my CBS leagues. Ah wells. It was worth a try. It was definitely different from the Yahoo experience and I'm pretty sure I WON'T be returning to CBS in the fall.
On the Yahoo fantasy front though... I was AWESOME. I was in three leagues total and I finished 1st in my keeper league, 1st in my expert league, and 3rd in my public league.
My Keeper team was just stacked. It wasn't really fair at all. I had Paul as a keeper and was able to snag Kidd and Terry late in the draft and also managed to steal Lee and Harrington off waivers (for the brief couple days they were on there at the beginning of the season). Towards the end of the season, one of the other guys straight up dropped Amare (even though we're a keeper league) and I was able to pick him up for free... who I then parlayed to one of the other teams already out of contention for Turkoglu. Yay me!
My expert league I'm especially proud of. I've already wrote a lot about that league and my team in my previous post... but suffice to say that I had a disaster of a draft and rebuilt my team completely throughout the season and was able to secure one of the last playoff spots during the last week of the season. Then through lots (and I emphasize LOTS) of timely pickups, I was able to secure the 1st place by beating the 1st and 3rd regular season teams.
I'm just throwing this out there cuz the last week in my expert league, the guy I was beating got a little chippy about it, but I'm not ashamed to say that I exploited the whole add/drop strategy to win my expert league. Yahoo has an option to limit max moves per week and/or max per season and I do advise commissioners out there to set them. FWIW, I have a max 4 moves per week limit in my keeper league. But IF there's no move limit, then I see no problem making as many moves as necessary to secure the win. While this is just a game, you should still try everything you can within the rules to win. And the strategy is available to all teams. The point is to be COMPETITIVE, right? Else why bother even playing?
Well, that's all I got for now. My posts will probably be sparse throughout the playoffs (baring some crazy play by the Blazers). Though expect some more posts around the draft lottery (May 19th) and leading up to the draft (June 25th). I love the draft and it's probably my second favorite day of the year (behind Christmas).
Oh and one early draft tidbit... Ricky Rubio is declaring for the draft. I bet he goes 2nd overall in the draft. The Suns have a 1.1% chance (.005 at 1st pick, .006 at 2nd pick) at landing the top 2 picks in the draft... that's better than the real lottery, right?
And finally, here's a couple playoff youtubes to make up for the past few weeks of inactivity.
TNT 2009 Playoff Promo - Game of Kings
Cavaliers 2009 Playoff Promo - Proposal
Anyhoo... lets see what's been going on in the month or so since my last post. Well, I managed to get out to Vegas on the weekend of the 28th. Tried out my "Friday Lines" on the Saturday games and placed a $10 bet on every spread and over/under (with exception of the DET/WAS game since that was Gil's first game back and I had no idea what to expect from him or the Wiz). 14 NBA bets total. Overall, I pretty much split all my NBA bets, which I guess is typical, since the odds are designed to be 50/50 by Vegas. What little profit I did make, I made from the March Madness games. $40 on Oklahoma over Syracuse and $20 on UConn over Purdue. Yay! I dunno... I made money betting on what I know the least (college bball) while I barely broke even on what I follow the most (NBA)... not sure if that's a good thing or not. Maybe I'm just full of hot air ;-)
On the fantasy front... I missed out on the playoffs in all three of my CBS leagues. Ah wells. It was worth a try. It was definitely different from the Yahoo experience and I'm pretty sure I WON'T be returning to CBS in the fall.
On the Yahoo fantasy front though... I was AWESOME. I was in three leagues total and I finished 1st in my keeper league, 1st in my expert league, and 3rd in my public league.
My Keeper team was just stacked. It wasn't really fair at all. I had Paul as a keeper and was able to snag Kidd and Terry late in the draft and also managed to steal Lee and Harrington off waivers (for the brief couple days they were on there at the beginning of the season). Towards the end of the season, one of the other guys straight up dropped Amare (even though we're a keeper league) and I was able to pick him up for free... who I then parlayed to one of the other teams already out of contention for Turkoglu. Yay me!
My expert league I'm especially proud of. I've already wrote a lot about that league and my team in my previous post... but suffice to say that I had a disaster of a draft and rebuilt my team completely throughout the season and was able to secure one of the last playoff spots during the last week of the season. Then through lots (and I emphasize LOTS) of timely pickups, I was able to secure the 1st place by beating the 1st and 3rd regular season teams.
I'm just throwing this out there cuz the last week in my expert league, the guy I was beating got a little chippy about it, but I'm not ashamed to say that I exploited the whole add/drop strategy to win my expert league. Yahoo has an option to limit max moves per week and/or max per season and I do advise commissioners out there to set them. FWIW, I have a max 4 moves per week limit in my keeper league. But IF there's no move limit, then I see no problem making as many moves as necessary to secure the win. While this is just a game, you should still try everything you can within the rules to win. And the strategy is available to all teams. The point is to be COMPETITIVE, right? Else why bother even playing?
Well, that's all I got for now. My posts will probably be sparse throughout the playoffs (baring some crazy play by the Blazers). Though expect some more posts around the draft lottery (May 19th) and leading up to the draft (June 25th). I love the draft and it's probably my second favorite day of the year (behind Christmas).
Oh and one early draft tidbit... Ricky Rubio is declaring for the draft. I bet he goes 2nd overall in the draft. The Suns have a 1.1% chance (.005 at 1st pick, .006 at 2nd pick) at landing the top 2 picks in the draft... that's better than the real lottery, right?
And finally, here's a couple playoff youtubes to make up for the past few weeks of inactivity.
TNT 2009 Playoff Promo - Game of Kings
Cavaliers 2009 Playoff Promo - Proposal
Monday, March 23, 2009
Bye Week
So, this week is the start of fantasy playoffs in Yahoo. If you rocked your leagues (like me) and got a top 2 seed, then you've got a nice and relaxing bye week ahead. To be honest, I only rocked it in one of my three leagues this year. I'm riding high in first in my keeper league and my roster is stacked (Paul, Boozer, Roy, Kidd, Iggy, etc, the list goes on and on!) and I'm feeling really confident about it. My other two leagues... eh... not so much. I'm 5th in both leagues and with mediocre teams. At least my fantasy playoff streak is alive, 20 h2h and counting.
My "expert" league though, I'm especially proud of. The league has 15 man rosters (10 active, 5 bench) and I have ZERO players from my original draft. That's right, every single one of my guys had been either dropped or traded. I rebuilt that team on the fly when my team was under performing. At my worst in early December, I was actually dead last in the league. And as few as a month ago, I was stuck in 9th and nearly 14 games back from 6th place. But some timely trades and pickups (McDyess FTW!), I dominated these last 4 weeks, going 41-11, and secured myself a 5th seed.
I think this shows that no matter how bad your team might be, you can still make the playoffs if you're willing to make the adjustments (trades, drops). The important thing is to recognize your problem early (don't wait until February) and stay active on the FA lists. I'd say if you were over 1.5 full weeks behind 6th place around December/January, it's time for a major shakeup. For standard Yahoo leagues with 9 cats, that'd be ~13-14 games behind. And when it's time for a major shakeup, don't get too hung up on your major names that might be slumping/injured. When you're behind, it's important to get your games played. Even scrapping my 5-4 or 4-5 is better than consistent 2-7 beatdowns. You don't want to slip too far back in the rankings.
FWIW, here's my original roster and their current replacements, obtained either via trade or pickup.
And on a semi-related note, I'm also dominating my March Madness Bracket too. 42/48 correct picks and I still got every team going to the sweet 16. Yes, that means #12 Arizona and #5 Purdue. Go me! I rock at fantasy. Somebody should hire me to be a real gm/analyst ;-)
And now, here's a couple random new Shaq videos. Cuz you know, I'm all about the Diesel.
My "expert" league though, I'm especially proud of. The league has 15 man rosters (10 active, 5 bench) and I have ZERO players from my original draft. That's right, every single one of my guys had been either dropped or traded. I rebuilt that team on the fly when my team was under performing. At my worst in early December, I was actually dead last in the league. And as few as a month ago, I was stuck in 9th and nearly 14 games back from 6th place. But some timely trades and pickups (McDyess FTW!), I dominated these last 4 weeks, going 41-11, and secured myself a 5th seed.
I think this shows that no matter how bad your team might be, you can still make the playoffs if you're willing to make the adjustments (trades, drops). The important thing is to recognize your problem early (don't wait until February) and stay active on the FA lists. I'd say if you were over 1.5 full weeks behind 6th place around December/January, it's time for a major shakeup. For standard Yahoo leagues with 9 cats, that'd be ~13-14 games behind. And when it's time for a major shakeup, don't get too hung up on your major names that might be slumping/injured. When you're behind, it's important to get your games played. Even scrapping my 5-4 or 4-5 is better than consistent 2-7 beatdowns. You don't want to slip too far back in the rankings.
FWIW, here's my original roster and their current replacements, obtained either via trade or pickup.
| Drafted | Current Roster | |
| 1 | Carlos Boozer | Steve Nash |
| 2 | Deron Williams | Jason Kidd |
| 3 | Chris Kaman | Antonio McDyess |
| 4 | Gerald Wallace | Andre Igudala |
| 5 | Andrew Bogut | Kendrick Perkins |
| 6 | David Lee | Chris Anderson |
| 7 | Derrick Rose | Mike Miller |
| 8 | Raymond Felton | Raja Bell |
| 9 | Monta Ellis | Jason Terry |
| 10 | Kirk Hinrich | Anthony Randolph |
| 11 | Rudy Fernandez | JR Smith |
| 12 | Grant Hill | Ronnie Brewer |
| 13 | Tyrus Thomas | Thabo Sefolosha |
| 14 | Luke Ridnour | Ramon Sessions |
| 15 | Quentin Richardson | Darius Songalia |
And on a semi-related note, I'm also dominating my March Madness Bracket too. 42/48 correct picks and I still got every team going to the sweet 16. Yes, that means #12 Arizona and #5 Purdue. Go me! I rock at fantasy. Somebody should hire me to be a real gm/analyst ;-)
And now, here's a couple random new Shaq videos. Cuz you know, I'm all about the Diesel.
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Grandpa
Greg Oden. It's not a case of faked birth dates or other shenanigans. He really just looks old. Honest. And as proof, here's him in middle school. Click the link. It's EPIC.
Click to See
The road to nowhere
If you don't know by now, my Phoenix Suns have been all but eliminated from playoff contention. They're currently 5 games behind Dallas with 17 games to go and they still have tough games in Utah, NO, POR, DAL, and home games again HOU and Utah again. So yeah, basically the Mavs can play .500 ball for the rest of the season and still make it easily over the Suns. Season OVER!
I was going to write up a big 'ol post about the state of the Suns and what I hope they'll do in the offseason. But the reality is that there's really not much they can do and GM Kerr (as much as he tries) haven't proven himself to be either a shrewd drafter (see: Dragic, Lopez) nor an above average trader (see: Shaq trade, Bell/Diaw trade). Even worse, even if the Suns wanted to trade or draft, they have very few assets. This year they'll get the 14th pick, which unless you luck into a Granger type (17th pick, 2005), is probably gonna be a mediocre player. The Suns can tank next year, but they don't even have their 2010 pick as a result of the Kurt Thomas salary dump from a couple years ago.
And in terms of trades... Shaq is a large $20 mil expiring but I just don't think there'll be a real market for him unless the Suns want to take back longer/worse contacts (which they don't). I think a real possibility would be for the Suns to just buy Shaq out. Lets say Shaq swallows his ego a bit (haha, I know) and takes $15 out of $20 mil for the buyout. The Suns save $5 mil in salary and $5 mil in tax right away. If Shaq can get a MLE type deal around $5-6 mil (which I belive he can) then the Suns get half off that too (due to a "set off" provision). So overall, the Suns would save $12-13 mil and Shaq "only" looses $2-3 mil and can go play for a contender of his choice.
Besides Shaq... that's about it. J-Rich is owed $28 mil over the next two years. I doubt anybody touches that. Barbs is on a relatively cheap deal and won't bring back anything more than he's worth. Ditto that for Nash. Amare HAD value, but with the severity of his injefoury, I doubt any team will trade for him before he plays a game. So if anything, he'll be dealt during the next season and not during the summer.
Too bad. If the Suns HAD their 2010 pick, the plan would have been REALLY easy. Buyout Shaq. Let Hill and Barnes walk. Don't pick up the team option on Nash and try to do a sign and trade if possible for some youth and/or picks. Tank 2010 and hope for a high pick. Let Amare rehab even more in-season if necessary. Drot out a lineup Dragic, Barbs, J-Rich, Amundon, and Lopez and TANK. Then in 2010, rebuild around Amare + high pick(s) + ~$15 mil in cap space. 'Course then they wouldn't be my Suns anymore, considering I hate Amare and they don't have Shaq or Nash, but that would be the best course for the team. But alas, they don't have their 2010 so they still should try to win (not the championship, I'm realistic, just games) next year. How the hell Kerr & Sarver plan/hope to do that? I really can't even guess. Odds are, they stand pat and we end up being another middling team fighting for the 8th spot next season. (yay!)
Hmmph, so enough Suns prattling for now. It's just depressing. This is like my worst basketball fan season too. No Shaq in the playoffs, Oden has been constantly injured, and I just might miss my FIRST ever fantasy playoffs. I'm currently in 9th and 4 games back with two weeks to go. Basically, I gotta blow out my opponent both weeks and hope those ahead of me get some bad losses too. We'll see if I'm more clutch then the real life Suns.
I was going to write up a big 'ol post about the state of the Suns and what I hope they'll do in the offseason. But the reality is that there's really not much they can do and GM Kerr (as much as he tries) haven't proven himself to be either a shrewd drafter (see: Dragic, Lopez) nor an above average trader (see: Shaq trade, Bell/Diaw trade). Even worse, even if the Suns wanted to trade or draft, they have very few assets. This year they'll get the 14th pick, which unless you luck into a Granger type (17th pick, 2005), is probably gonna be a mediocre player. The Suns can tank next year, but they don't even have their 2010 pick as a result of the Kurt Thomas salary dump from a couple years ago.
And in terms of trades... Shaq is a large $20 mil expiring but I just don't think there'll be a real market for him unless the Suns want to take back longer/worse contacts (which they don't). I think a real possibility would be for the Suns to just buy Shaq out. Lets say Shaq swallows his ego a bit (haha, I know) and takes $15 out of $20 mil for the buyout. The Suns save $5 mil in salary and $5 mil in tax right away. If Shaq can get a MLE type deal around $5-6 mil (which I belive he can) then the Suns get half off that too (due to a "set off" provision). So overall, the Suns would save $12-13 mil and Shaq "only" looses $2-3 mil and can go play for a contender of his choice.
Besides Shaq... that's about it. J-Rich is owed $28 mil over the next two years. I doubt anybody touches that. Barbs is on a relatively cheap deal and won't bring back anything more than he's worth. Ditto that for Nash. Amare HAD value, but with the severity of his injefoury, I doubt any team will trade for him before he plays a game. So if anything, he'll be dealt during the next season and not during the summer.
Too bad. If the Suns HAD their 2010 pick, the plan would have been REALLY easy. Buyout Shaq. Let Hill and Barnes walk. Don't pick up the team option on Nash and try to do a sign and trade if possible for some youth and/or picks. Tank 2010 and hope for a high pick. Let Amare rehab even more in-season if necessary. Drot out a lineup Dragic, Barbs, J-Rich, Amundon, and Lopez and TANK. Then in 2010, rebuild around Amare + high pick(s) + ~$15 mil in cap space. 'Course then they wouldn't be my Suns anymore, considering I hate Amare and they don't have Shaq or Nash, but that would be the best course for the team. But alas, they don't have their 2010 so they still should try to win (not the championship, I'm realistic, just games) next year. How the hell Kerr & Sarver plan/hope to do that? I really can't even guess. Odds are, they stand pat and we end up being another middling team fighting for the 8th spot next season. (yay!)
Hmmph, so enough Suns prattling for now. It's just depressing. This is like my worst basketball fan season too. No Shaq in the playoffs, Oden has been constantly injured, and I just might miss my FIRST ever fantasy playoffs. I'm currently in 9th and 4 games back with two weeks to go. Basically, I gotta blow out my opponent both weeks and hope those ahead of me get some bad losses too. We'll see if I'm more clutch then the real life Suns.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
SEASON OVER
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SEASON OVER!!!
Jason is crying in a corner somewhere clutching one of his Shaq jerseys. When the tears stop maybe he'll find the energy/will to write up a rant about all that's wrong in the desert. But for now just tears.
Friday, March 6, 2009
Friday Lines
Last week was my best predictions ever... picking 17/26 right. I guess that all-star break helped me out too ;-)
So here's tonight's lines... kinda interesting that the MIA/TOR is player's choice. I know they're on the road and all... but you'd think that MIA would get a little more respect than that considering they're the 5th seed with an MVP candidate while the Raps are the 2nd worst in the east and have RuPaul on the team instead. ;-)
By the way, I planned on writing a post about Shaq's recent verbal shenanigans but I just haven't gotten around to it yet. Will do this weekend for sure. Anyway, here's tonight's lines...
So here's tonight's lines... kinda interesting that the MIA/TOR is player's choice. I know they're on the road and all... but you'd think that MIA would get a little more respect than that considering they're the 5th seed with an MVP candidate while the Raps are the 2nd worst in the east and have RuPaul on the team instead. ;-)
By the way, I planned on writing a post about Shaq's recent verbal shenanigans but I just haven't gotten around to it yet. Will do this weekend for sure. Anyway, here's tonight's lines...
| New Jersey | 9.5 | +201.5 |
| Orlando | -9.5 | -201.5 |
| Atlanta | 3 | +183 |
| Charlotte | -3 | -183 |
| Miami | 0 | +202.5 |
| Toronto | 0 | -202.5 |
| Golden State | 9 | +208 |
| Detroit | -9 | -208 |
| Cleveland | 1.5 | +186 |
| Boston | -1.5 | -186 |
| Phoenix | 5.5 | +226 |
| Houston | -5.5 | -226 |
| Washington | 12.5 | +187.5 |
| San Antonio | -12.5 | -187.5 |
| Milwaukee | 6.5 | +205.5 |
| Chicago | -6.5 | -205.5 |
| Denver | 9 | +209.5 |
| Utah | -9 | -209.5 |
| Minnesota | 15 | +215.5 |
| LA Lakers | -15 | -215.5 |
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
The Race for Eighth
So, the Mavericks lost last night. To Oklahoma City of all teams. The fact that they almost lost at home, to a Durant-less OKC team three nights ago, should have at least made the Mavericks take notice of the Thunder, if not come straight out ready to make a statement. Instead, they proceed to suck it up on the road in OKC and almost get blown out. They were actually down 20 going into the 4th before they tightened their D up to make it a semi-close game, eventually losing by 9, 96-87. Really, that's just pathetic. And you can't even complain about matchup problems like their old Warriors series. Both Durant AND Green sat out in that Maverick loss. One of the WORST and YOUNGEST teams in the league spot you their two best players, and you almost lose by double digits, in the thick of the playoff race? WTF? Seriously, how are the Suns behind them in the standings?
Speaking of standings... in my opinion there's really five teams battling for the last 4 spots in the West, with one team left out of the playoff party. I don't think the Jazz will miss. They're surging hard right now, going 10-1 in February, and finally have their whole team back. Boozer and AK just returned from surgeries and will be playing back into shape shortly, meanwhile Deron has shook off his early season rust (also from surgery) and have been putting up All-Star type numbers for the past 6 weeks or so. And with their earlier injuries, former role players Brewer and Millsap have really come into their own this season. Brewer's ppg has been climbing all season, from 14 ppg in January to 17 ppg in February, and post all-star break, he's been averaging close to 20/5. Meanwhile Millsap has been a fantastic fill-in for Boozer and has shown that with starter minutes, he's a 16/10, 1 stl, 1 blk kinda guy. With that kind of production from their "role players" and their notoriously tough home court, the Jazz are a lock for the playoffs. Ff anything, the Jazz just might grab the 3rd seed.
No, in my opinion, the 5 teams fighting for the 4 spots are Houston, Dallas, New Orleans, Phoenix, and Portland. Currently, Phoenix is the one in 9th and 1 game back from Dallas. So I crunch some numbers, so here's how the rest of their schedules match up.
The above chart shows how many games each team has left as of tonight (March 3) and how many are home or away games. It also shows the average winning % of their opponents, how many against the big 12 teams in the league (Western top 9 + BOS, CLE, ORL), and how many of those big matchups are away.
From that list, Houston seems to have the toughest schedule. Over half of their remaining games are against powerhouse teams and over half of those are on the road. PHX and DAL looks like a close tie with both having 12 matchups with the Biggies. PHX has 1 more overal road game (11 vs. 12) and one more overall road biggie (6 vs. 7), but their average opponent winning percentage is much lower (.488 vs .528). Meanwhile, another "lock" looks to be New Orleans who has the easiest schedule. Their opponent winning % is the lowest at .472 and only 3 of their 10 big matchups are on the road.
Looking at this and after last night's embarassingly loss to the Thunder... I'm willing to bet that the Mavs are the ones that will miss the playoffs. 'Course that's not always too bad. At least they'll get a swing at the lotto. And whoever gets the 7th or 8th seeds probably won't last too long against LA or San Antonio.
By the way, if you want to play around with the numbers yourself. My spreadsheet is available here.
Edit: Just realized I forgot to explain why I think Houston makes it despite having the hardest schedule. First of all, they only have 22 losses, so they're actually 4 games ahead of the Suns (26L) after our lost tonight against the Magic and 2 games ahead of the Mavericks (24L). That's a HUGE difference with so few games remaining. Also, I know McGrady is out for the season with microfracture surgery, but I think they're actually better without him. Since T-Mac has been out, the Rockets have gone 7-1. Yeah, 6 of those victories were at home, but they still include quality wins against the likes of CLE, POR, and DAL. The defensive advantages of having Battier and Artest out there at the same time have been tremendous. For a more in depth look at their D, check out this excellent article by ESPN, breaking down how the Rockets decided to cover and contain Lebron James, holding him to just 7-21 shooting and a career low 0 assist.
Speaking of standings... in my opinion there's really five teams battling for the last 4 spots in the West, with one team left out of the playoff party. I don't think the Jazz will miss. They're surging hard right now, going 10-1 in February, and finally have their whole team back. Boozer and AK just returned from surgeries and will be playing back into shape shortly, meanwhile Deron has shook off his early season rust (also from surgery) and have been putting up All-Star type numbers for the past 6 weeks or so. And with their earlier injuries, former role players Brewer and Millsap have really come into their own this season. Brewer's ppg has been climbing all season, from 14 ppg in January to 17 ppg in February, and post all-star break, he's been averaging close to 20/5. Meanwhile Millsap has been a fantastic fill-in for Boozer and has shown that with starter minutes, he's a 16/10, 1 stl, 1 blk kinda guy. With that kind of production from their "role players" and their notoriously tough home court, the Jazz are a lock for the playoffs. Ff anything, the Jazz just might grab the 3rd seed.
No, in my opinion, the 5 teams fighting for the 4 spots are Houston, Dallas, New Orleans, Phoenix, and Portland. Currently, Phoenix is the one in 9th and 1 game back from Dallas. So I crunch some numbers, so here's how the rest of their schedules match up.
| Team | Games | Home | Away | Avg Opp. | Vs. Bigs | Vs. Bigs (a) |
| HOU | 22 | 11 | 11 | 0.539 | 14 | 8 |
| DAL | 22 | 11 | 11 | 0.528 | 12 | 6 |
| NO | 23 | 11 | 12 | 0.472 | 10 | 3 |
| PHX | 23 | 11 | 12 | 0.488 | 12 | 7 |
| POR | 23 | 11 | 12 | 0.497 | 10 | 4 |
The above chart shows how many games each team has left as of tonight (March 3) and how many are home or away games. It also shows the average winning % of their opponents, how many against the big 12 teams in the league (Western top 9 + BOS, CLE, ORL), and how many of those big matchups are away.
From that list, Houston seems to have the toughest schedule. Over half of their remaining games are against powerhouse teams and over half of those are on the road. PHX and DAL looks like a close tie with both having 12 matchups with the Biggies. PHX has 1 more overal road game (11 vs. 12) and one more overall road biggie (6 vs. 7), but their average opponent winning percentage is much lower (.488 vs .528). Meanwhile, another "lock" looks to be New Orleans who has the easiest schedule. Their opponent winning % is the lowest at .472 and only 3 of their 10 big matchups are on the road.
Looking at this and after last night's embarassingly loss to the Thunder... I'm willing to bet that the Mavs are the ones that will miss the playoffs. 'Course that's not always too bad. At least they'll get a swing at the lotto. And whoever gets the 7th or 8th seeds probably won't last too long against LA or San Antonio.
By the way, if you want to play around with the numbers yourself. My spreadsheet is available here.
Edit: Just realized I forgot to explain why I think Houston makes it despite having the hardest schedule. First of all, they only have 22 losses, so they're actually 4 games ahead of the Suns (26L) after our lost tonight against the Magic and 2 games ahead of the Mavericks (24L). That's a HUGE difference with so few games remaining. Also, I know McGrady is out for the season with microfracture surgery, but I think they're actually better without him. Since T-Mac has been out, the Rockets have gone 7-1. Yeah, 6 of those victories were at home, but they still include quality wins against the likes of CLE, POR, and DAL. The defensive advantages of having Battier and Artest out there at the same time have been tremendous. For a more in depth look at their D, check out this excellent article by ESPN, breaking down how the Rockets decided to cover and contain Lebron James, holding him to just 7-21 shooting and a career low 0 assist.
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