Anyhoo, a large part of this blog is gonna be about fantasy basketball... draft, strategies, trades, matchups, etc. But why should you listen to me about fantasy bball? Well, I like to think I'm pretty good, esp. at head to head. My profiles on yahoo are DellQz01 and DellQz02... look 'em up if you can. I've played in 17 h2hs over the last 4 years in a mix of private, public, and winner's leagues. From standard rules to 15 stat categories to 14 managers to 16 man rosters, I've played under just about every kind of rules & settings possible. Last year I even played in a league where every week the winner of the h2h got to "steal" the best player from the losing team. Through it all, 17 leagues, and I have NEVER missed the playoffs. I've won first 8x (incl. 2 winner's leagues), second 4x, and third 3x. That means out of 17 leagues, I have only not finished in the medal twice. And this year I'm putting my money where my mouth is by taking it to the pay leagues at CBS Sportsline.
That said, I think it's never too early to start thinking about the playoffs. I think one of the most important stats in h2h that's rarely tracked is the number of games played per week. I mean, a crappy 10/5 guy off the FA wire who plays 4 games a week is arguably just as productive for your team as a stud 20/10 early round pick. And if you're getting your 20/10 four or five games a week, that's just dominating. So, in light of that, here's the # games played by each team in the most critical weeks, March 23rd-April 15th.
| Team | Playoff W1 | Playoff W2 | Playoff W3 | 1+2 | 2+3 | Total |
| Jazz | 3 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 13 |
| 76ers | 4 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 14 |
| Magic | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 13 |
| Hornets | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 13 |
| Grizzlies | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 13 |
| Kings | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 12 |
| Knicks | 4 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 13 |
| Pistons | 4 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 13 |
| Heat | 4 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 13 |
| Lakers | 4 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 13 |
| Nets | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 |
| Cavaliers | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 |
| Bobcats | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 |
| Mavericks | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 |
| Warriors | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 |
| Nuggets | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 12 |
| Bucks | 3 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 11 |
| Spurs | 4 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 13 |
| Raptors | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 12 |
| Blazers | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 12 |
| Thunder | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 12 |
| Suns | 5 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| Hawks | 4 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 12 |
| Twolves | 4 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 12 |
| Clippers | 4 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 12 |
| Pacers | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 |
| Rockets | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 10 |
| Wizards | 4 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 11 |
| Celtics | 4 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 11 |
| Bulls | 4 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 11 |
Now you can use that data however you want. A few things worth noting is that the Suns are the only team with 5 games in week 1 of the playoffs and the Jazz are the only team with 5 games in week 2. Also the Sixers have the best schedule through the entire playoffs with 4-4-6 games, respectively. Personally, I usually have a top 2 record going into the playoffs so I like to concentrate on week 2 the most so I'll definitely be watching out for Jazz and Sixers players in the draft. That's not to say that you should be drafting Okur or Igudala in the first round... but if a Jazz or Sixer player is available and it's a toss-up value wise or maybe even 1 round early, you should feel good about drafting a Jazz or Sixer.
If you're always just squeaking into the playoffs as a 5th or 6th seed, you might want to consider stocking your team with some Suns. 5 games a week is a lot and could potentially put you over the hump into the next week. Just think about it. You can probably draft Amare and Nash in rounds 1 and 2 relatively easily. Using last year's averages, they alone would get you 210/63/63 in 5 games in week 1 of the playoffs. Even if you had TWO Lebron James, the Cavs only play 3 games, and they'll *only* get you 180/47/43.
On the flip side, notice that the Rockets, Bulls, and Celtics have just 2 games in some of the fantasy weeks. The Rockets are probably the worst with just 2 games in week 1 and 3 games in week 2. Add to that all the injury history with Yao, McGrady, and Artest (55, 66, and 55 games played last year, respectively) and I will NOT be drafting a Rocket at all. I'd advise you to do the same as well.
It's important to note that this strategy only really works for your studs in the early rounds (assuming typical 12 team, 9 cat leagues, I'd consider everything 6 and higher, "early" rounds). You shouldn't really care about your l1th round, 3rd string guys playing 4-5 games a week, odds are, those are the spots you'll be add/dropping when the numbers get tight.
Stay tuned... I'll be recommending specific players in the coming posts.
2 comments:
Here's another solid draft hint. Don't draft Andrei Kirilenko. Ever.
You have your own fantasy basketball blog. I love you...and Andrew sucks.
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