Nitpicking the Blazers

Yeah, the Blazers are off to a relatively good start... 10-5, 8-2 over their last 10, currently sitting 5th in the west in a virtual tie with 4th seed Denver. This is all in spite of a season ending injury to probable starter Nicolas Batum and a broken foot Travis Outlaw that will keep the 6th man out for 3-5 months.

Still though, I can't help but think that this team *could* be so much better. First, there's the Andre Miller signing. Now, I don't want to really call it a mistake because Steve Blake is clearly the inferior player and *should* be a backup PG on contending/elite teams. And Miller can definitely be a starter on a contender/elite team. McMillan did try starting Miller for a couple of weeks (although along side Blake instead of in lieu of) and despite some shaky moments, the Blazers rattled off a 7-2 record during that stretch. However, last Saturday saw the end of that experiment (after a 94-108 loss the previous night to GS) with Miller back as a sub off the bench. The Blazers still won with a 106-78 smackdown of lowly Minnesota, but still, the idea of Miller and his talents (and $7 million salary) being wasted on 20 uninspiring minutes off the bench just seems like a total waste.

Of course, the real problem in all this is that Roy just doesn't seem comfortable playing for long stretches with a ball-dominant PG. Rather than continuing to teach and make adjustments, McMillan seems content to just acquiescence to his star's playing demands. Even though I don't agree with it, I wouldn't be surprised if Miller is dealt either before the trade deadline or this summer (where he'll be an expiring contract for 2011).

Now, who would Miller be traded for is the question? Unless a shoot first PG was available (i.e. a Jason Terry, Mo Williams type), I think the Blazers should address another glaring need in terms of a backup PF. The recent injury to Travis Outlaw has really exposed our lack size at the PF position. At C behind Oden we have Pryzbilla, but behind Aldridge (who already is a more finesse PF) we have NOBODY! Before his injury, Outlaw was our backup PF and he was already a tweener that barely gets on the glass. Now we're trotting out super-vet (as in super old) Juwan Howard out there. REALLY? I don't know if you've seen any Portland games (or just Juwan Howard) lately, but he's seriously old and just plain terrible. I have no idea why he's getting any minutes at all... let along 10+ since Outlaw's injury. FWIW, you can always tell when Howard is in the game, because that's when we're either losing or letting the other team back in the game. In the last 5 games, despite playing only ~10 minutes per, Howard has amassed an impressive -19 +/-. That's with the Blazers winning 3-2 and outscoring their opponents by 22. In fact, Howard has had a negative +/- in all but the Charlotte game, where he was a +3. At least point, I'd rather McMillan experiment more with either the Twin Towers look (Oden & Pryzbilla) or 4 guard look. At least we'd either has some real size/toughness out there or a speed/shooting advantage. With Howard, it's like we're 4 on 5, on offense AND defense.

Of course, hindsight 20/20, but if they knew there would be problems with Roy and Miller coexisting... maybe the Blazers should have spent their free agent money on a backup big instead. I know they did tender an offer on Millsap (which got matched by Utah), but want about offers for Hakim Warrick, Brandon Bass, or Drew Gooden? All three were FAs that signed with other teams this past summer and would have been fine coming off the Portland bench and would have been much better PF options than Old Man Howard.

And one last bit... you know I can't talk about the Blazers without talking about Greg Oden. So far, Oden has been playing pretty well for the Blazers and is a defensive force whenever he's in the game. FWIW, he has the highest +/- of any Blazer at +9.7. (unsurprisingly, Juwan Howard is a team worst -20.6). He's 3rd in the league in rebound percentage and third in blocks and if he could ever stay on the court, his per 36 stats project out to a very impressive 15.5/12.1 and 3.5 blks. 'Course he's constantly battling foul trouble, with a NBA leading 60 fouls so far, and his per 36 is exactly 6.0 fouls per game (hey, at least it's down from his 6.5 fpg last year).

So, naturally a lot of games, Oden will pick up two quick fouls in the 1st quarter and have to end up watching the majority of the half from the bench. I get that. You gotta protect your guy from fouling out in a quarter. My problem with McMillan is that if you yank him with 2 quick fouls... shouldn't you keep him in the game when he's NOT fouling? I mean, Oden's already missed so much of his first two years... shouldn't it be a priority to play him as much as you can, when you can? Case in point, last Saturday's game against Minnesota. It's the first quarter... Oden is playing well (2 pts, 1 reb, 2 blks), the team is playing well (up 14-6), and most importantly Oden has ZERO fouls. But what does McMillan do? Sub in Pryzbilla at the 5:39 mark. To make it even more obvious, Oden was the FIRST starter to the bench! The other four starters got to stay on the floor! WHY?!?! And no, it wasn't a fatigue kind of thing... Oden only played 24 minutes the night before at GS. FWIW, the other two Portland "stars" Roy and Aldridge got to play the rest of the first quarter. And this isn't an isolated incident either. Foul trouble or not, McMillan seems content to just play Oden for ~24 minutes. 7 times so far this season (out of 15 games played) Oden has recorded 4 or less fouls in a game, yet never broke 29 minutes (averaged 25:44 in those 7 games). I simply can't think of a reason for this. If you want your stud 1st pick to play like a franchise player, you need to PLAY him like a franchise player, not some role player in a timeshare.

Good job Memphis

Y'all know I'm a Laker hater... but sometimes I gotta spread the hate a little, so this post is for the Memphis Grizzlies. Seriously, don't let the Net's 0-6 start fool you, they've been struck by quite a few injuries (Harris, Yi, CDR, Lee). No, the worst team in the league by far is the Memphis Grizzlies (1-5). I don't know how anyone thought acquiring Zach Randolph over the summer would have been a good thing. Yeah, he's always a 20-10 type of guy and he's even averaging a career best 3 apg this year, but those are probably the emptiest stats in the league. Every team he goes to just gets worse and I bet you thought that wasn't possible with the Grizzlies, but check this out...

The Grizzlies are now giving up a league worst 115 PPG, up from 99.3 PPG last season (18th). They're also third worst in opp. FG% (50.6%) that's from 6th worst last season (47.3%). They're also third worst in points differential (-9.8), from 5th worst last season (-5.4). All this despite suffering no major injuries to their entire roster and getting a spectacular start from 2nd year center Marc Gasol (16.3 pts, 11.7 rebs, 1.5 blks, 58% FG).

And what about their 2nd overall pick from last year? You know the guy they picked ahead of Rubio, Evans, Curry, Jennings, and basically everybody not named Griffin. Well, apparently Hasheem Thabeet is just not good enough to play sometimes... at least according to Grizzlies head coach Lionel Hollins.

"In the (Western Conference), there's going to be nights he can't play," Hollins said. "He can't play against Golden State. He can't play against Phoenix. It'll be about matchups, but he'll get his time."

Um, 2nd overall picks shouldn't be situational bench players, they should be damn near studs. Well unless you're that other 2nd overall pick... but Thabeet isn't an 18 year old unknown Euro project. He played 3 years of NCAA ball at a major college (UCONN) with lots of tournament exposure. You should know what you're getting when you draft him. Yeah, yeah, there was also that other high pick guy that did 3 years at a major college and turned out to be a major bust. But at least that bust played 30 minutes a game for 78 games in his rookie campaign... Thabeet isn't even getting a chance to play. Good job Memphis!

You know... Thabeet is supposed to be defensive minded (2x Big East Defensive Player of the Year) and the Grizzlies are obviously terrible at defensive. I'm pretty sure the leaner/meaner Marc Gasol can play some spot PF. Why not roll the both of them out there for a bit (and give Z-Bo a rest) and see what happens. Maybe just 3-4 minutes at a time, 1-2 quarters a game. They're already losing and getting blown out more often than not... the twin towers experiment can't be that much worse, can it?

Girls are crazy

Okay, this is probably my first non-bball post, but at least it's sports related. Women's soccer game between BYU and New Mexico... if you haven't seen it, #15 is just CRAZY! It's like Malice at the Palace x100 but for whatever reason, they let her keep playing. It's like Ron Artest + Mike Tyson + Zinedine Zidane all rolled into one. Check out the fouls, they're ALL of her, in the SAME game! The fact that they let her keep playing, those have got to be the worst refs of any sport at any level of the game. Just wow.

Nostradamous

I'll admit that I suck at real-world NBA predictions. 3/7 of my all time predictions went bust in the very first year and my preseason rankings for the 2008-09 season was just plain terrible. That's why I've refrained from making any rankings/predictions for this season. No need to make more excuses to laugh at myself at season's end, right?

But at least I know my fantasy stuff. What did I say about Martin and Redd being injury prone? Well, Redd is already out at least two weeks with a sprained knee and Martin just got diagnosed with a hairline fracture in his wrist (no word yet on how much time or if any he will miss). Also, I also told you to avoid Calderon, Brand, and Baron Davis... and that all turned out to be sound advice. I mean, last year was a year to forget for B Diddy and as impossible as it seems, he's actually playing WORSE so far this year... just 11 points on 33% shooting and one 3PTMs a game. Brand has been worse as well, averaging just 12/8 on 46% shooting. That's stats from your last guy, not somebody you spent a 5th round pick on.

Of course, I've wiffed a picked or two too. Most notably on Anthony Randolph. I had pretty high expectations on AR and happily used a 6th and a 7th round pick in two different drafts for him. To say that he's been underwhelming is an understatement, averaging just 8 pts and 4.7 rebs on 35% shooting without even a full block or steal to add to his line. A lot of the blame goes to Nellie though. I mean, AR is a young guy and inconsistent and you want to bring him along slowly, I get that. So Nellie starts Turiaf and lets Randolph come off the bench. That's understanable. But when Turiaf goes out with a sprained knee, you'd think Randolph would be in line for the those minutes. 'Cept instead Nellie goes and starts Stephen Jackson at PF and slots Randolph behind MIKKI FRIGGIN MOORE on the depth chart. 7 minutes is all AR got last night. WTF?!?! That is seriously messed up. Nellie just seems crazier and crazier by the game. He needs 22 more games to pass Lenny Wilkins for all-time winningest coach. What are the odds the Warriors can get that by all-star break and Nellie just up and quits when he gets the record?

Conspiracy Theories

In case you didn't know, Tim Donaghy is the disgraced former NBA ref that was caught betting on NBA games (including those that he reffed). He went to jail, did his time, got out, broke his probation, and is now back in jail. During his first jail stint... Donaghy wrote a tell-all book, "Blowing the Whistle", about all the crookedness/craziness in the NBA. The book was picked up by Triumph Books, which has since canceled the printing and now Donaghy is looking for new publishers. In typical internet fashion, excerpts are now available online. Of course, the validity/trustworthiness of Donaghy's word is debatable... but still, it's some fascinating/shocking stuff. Full excerpts are available at deadspin.com though my personal favs are quoted below...

We had another variation of this gag simply referred to as the "first foul of the game" bet. While still in the locker room before tip-off, we would make a wager on which of us would call the game's first foul. [...] There were occasions when we would hold back for two or three minutes — an eternity in an NBA game — before blowing the whistle. It didn't matter if bodies were flying all over the place; no fouls were called because no one wanted to lose the bet.

We played this little game during the regular season and summer league. After a game, all three refs would gather around the VCR and watch a replay of the game. Early in the contest, the announcers would say, "Holy cow! They're really letting them play tonight!" If they only knew...

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You would think that the NBA would love a guy who plays such great defense. Think again! Star stoppers hurt the promotion of marquee players. [...]

If a player of Kobe's stature collides with the likes of Raja Bell, the call will almost always go for Kobe and against Bell. As part of our ongoing training and game preparation, NBA referees regularly receive game-action video tape from the league office. Over the years, I have reviewed many recorded hours of video involving Raja Bell. The footage I analyzed usually illustrated fouls being called against Bell, rarely for him. The message was subtle but clear — call fouls against the star stopper because he's hurting the game.

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From my earliest involvement with Bavetta, I learned that he likes to keep games close, and that when a team gets down by double-digit points, he helps the players save face. He accomplishes this act of mercy by quietly, and frequently, blowing the whistle on the team that's having the better night. Team fouls suddenly become one-sided between the contestants, and the score begins to tighten up. That's the way Dick Bavetta referees a game — and everyone in the league knew it.

[...] Is the conscious act of helping a team crawl back into a contest "cheating"? The credo of referees from high school to the NBA is "call them like you see them." Of course, that's a lot different than purposely calling more fouls against one team as opposed to another. Did Bavetta have a hidden agenda? Or was he the ultimate company man, making sure the NBA and its fans got a competitive game most times he was on the court?

If you have the time, I'd highly recommend reading the full link above, there's a LOT more quotes and examples there. Pretty crazy stuff imho, though surprisingly not all that shocking or unbelievable from a fan's perspective. I really wish the NBA would institute a challenge-like system a la the NFL. Coaches can ask for video review of any calls, if the coach is right, the call is reversed. If the coach is wrong, the team is charged a full timeout (to cut down on frivolous challenges). And added benefit is that we'd have a public record for the number/frequency of reversed calls per ref, for greater accountability.

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Oh and fantasy update... I hope you picked up Danillo Gallinari when I recommended him last week, cuz odds are he's gone by now and I think he's gonna be the pickup of the year. He's averaging SIX 3PTM over his last 3 games... 80% of his FGA are from behind the arc (12/15) and he's just been promoted to the NY starting lineup. That's insane!

Similar insanity goes out to Channing Frye, who's averaging 4.3 3PTMs and 19.7 through 3 games. Actually everybody on the Suns ('cept Amare) are playing out of their minds right now. 35 year old SF Grant Hill is averaging 20/10 through 3 games and Nash is back to MVP form, posting 18/3/14. I expect them to cool off somewhat, but it's nice to see the old run and gun Suns back to form.

Also Chris Douglas Roberts finally had a breakout game. Your choice whether to nab him now or wait for one more good performance. With Devin Harris out for 2 weeks, I think CDR can get a lot more looks in their offense. Having 3 position eligibility is nice too. For another temp pickup, you can check out Charlie Bell, who'll be starting for Redd for the next 2 weeks.

It's almost tough sometimes cuz there's lots of options out there on the FA list but you just don't have the roster space to make the move. If you can swing some 2-1 deals to upgrade your top talents, DO IT. Even if you're slightly overpaying... because the stuff on the wire (esp. early in the season) is always good. If you can't free that spot though, sometimes you have to consider your team's needs/strengths when you're dealing with the last spots your roster instead of just the best/better player available.

Personally I've had to let someone else take Frye in a league just because I didn't have anybody I was willing to drop. And I had to drop Tyreke Evans to take Brandon Jennings in another league. In Frye's case, my team was already really strong in 3s so I'd rather keep a true big like Thompson or Speights instead of picking up Frye to pad a stat I'd carry anyways.