Monday, November 23, 2009

Nitpicking the Blazers

Yeah, the Blazers are off to a relatively good start... 10-5, 8-2 over their last 10, currently sitting 5th in the west in a virtual tie with 4th seed Denver. This is all in spite of a season ending injury to probable starter Nicolas Batum and a broken foot Travis Outlaw that will keep the 6th man out for 3-5 months.

Still though, I can't help but think that this team *could* be so much better. First, there's the Andre Miller signing. Now, I don't want to really call it a mistake because Steve Blake is clearly the inferior player and *should* be a backup PG on contending/elite teams. And Miller can definitely be a starter on a contender/elite team. McMillan did try starting Miller for a couple of weeks (although along side Blake instead of in lieu of) and despite some shaky moments, the Blazers rattled off a 7-2 record during that stretch. However, last Saturday saw the end of that experiment (after a 94-108 loss the previous night to GS) with Miller back as a sub off the bench. The Blazers still won with a 106-78 smackdown of lowly Minnesota, but still, the idea of Miller and his talents (and $7 million salary) being wasted on 20 uninspiring minutes off the bench just seems like a total waste.

Of course, the real problem in all this is that Roy just doesn't seem comfortable playing for long stretches with a ball-dominant PG. Rather than continuing to teach and make adjustments, McMillan seems content to just acquiescence to his star's playing demands. Even though I don't agree with it, I wouldn't be surprised if Miller is dealt either before the trade deadline or this summer (where he'll be an expiring contract for 2011).

Now, who would Miller be traded for is the question? Unless a shoot first PG was available (i.e. a Jason Terry, Mo Williams type), I think the Blazers should address another glaring need in terms of a backup PF. The recent injury to Travis Outlaw has really exposed our lack size at the PF position. At C behind Oden we have Pryzbilla, but behind Aldridge (who already is a more finesse PF) we have NOBODY! Before his injury, Outlaw was our backup PF and he was already a tweener that barely gets on the glass. Now we're trotting out super-vet (as in super old) Juwan Howard out there. REALLY? I don't know if you've seen any Portland games (or just Juwan Howard) lately, but he's seriously old and just plain terrible. I have no idea why he's getting any minutes at all... let along 10+ since Outlaw's injury. FWIW, you can always tell when Howard is in the game, because that's when we're either losing or letting the other team back in the game. In the last 5 games, despite playing only ~10 minutes per, Howard has amassed an impressive -19 +/-. That's with the Blazers winning 3-2 and outscoring their opponents by 22. In fact, Howard has had a negative +/- in all but the Charlotte game, where he was a +3. At least point, I'd rather McMillan experiment more with either the Twin Towers look (Oden & Pryzbilla) or 4 guard look. At least we'd either has some real size/toughness out there or a speed/shooting advantage. With Howard, it's like we're 4 on 5, on offense AND defense.

Of course, hindsight 20/20, but if they knew there would be problems with Roy and Miller coexisting... maybe the Blazers should have spent their free agent money on a backup big instead. I know they did tender an offer on Millsap (which got matched by Utah), but want about offers for Hakim Warrick, Brandon Bass, or Drew Gooden? All three were FAs that signed with other teams this past summer and would have been fine coming off the Portland bench and would have been much better PF options than Old Man Howard.

And one last bit... you know I can't talk about the Blazers without talking about Greg Oden. So far, Oden has been playing pretty well for the Blazers and is a defensive force whenever he's in the game. FWIW, he has the highest +/- of any Blazer at +9.7. (unsurprisingly, Juwan Howard is a team worst -20.6). He's 3rd in the league in rebound percentage and third in blocks and if he could ever stay on the court, his per 36 stats project out to a very impressive 15.5/12.1 and 3.5 blks. 'Course he's constantly battling foul trouble, with a NBA leading 60 fouls so far, and his per 36 is exactly 6.0 fouls per game (hey, at least it's down from his 6.5 fpg last year).

So, naturally a lot of games, Oden will pick up two quick fouls in the 1st quarter and have to end up watching the majority of the half from the bench. I get that. You gotta protect your guy from fouling out in a quarter. My problem with McMillan is that if you yank him with 2 quick fouls... shouldn't you keep him in the game when he's NOT fouling? I mean, Oden's already missed so much of his first two years... shouldn't it be a priority to play him as much as you can, when you can? Case in point, last Saturday's game against Minnesota. It's the first quarter... Oden is playing well (2 pts, 1 reb, 2 blks), the team is playing well (up 14-6), and most importantly Oden has ZERO fouls. But what does McMillan do? Sub in Pryzbilla at the 5:39 mark. To make it even more obvious, Oden was the FIRST starter to the bench! The other four starters got to stay on the floor! WHY?!?! And no, it wasn't a fatigue kind of thing... Oden only played 24 minutes the night before at GS. FWIW, the other two Portland "stars" Roy and Aldridge got to play the rest of the first quarter. And this isn't an isolated incident either. Foul trouble or not, McMillan seems content to just play Oden for ~24 minutes. 7 times so far this season (out of 15 games played) Oden has recorded 4 or less fouls in a game, yet never broke 29 minutes (averaged 25:44 in those 7 games). I simply can't think of a reason for this. If you want your stud 1st pick to play like a franchise player, you need to PLAY him like a franchise player, not some role player in a timeshare.

1 comment:

MadStalk said...

Jason, you batshit crazy!!!!