Bye Week

So, this week is the start of fantasy playoffs in Yahoo. If you rocked your leagues (like me) and got a top 2 seed, then you've got a nice and relaxing bye week ahead. To be honest, I only rocked it in one of my three leagues this year. I'm riding high in first in my keeper league and my roster is stacked (Paul, Boozer, Roy, Kidd, Iggy, etc, the list goes on and on!) and I'm feeling really confident about it. My other two leagues... eh... not so much. I'm 5th in both leagues and with mediocre teams. At least my fantasy playoff streak is alive, 20 h2h and counting.

My "expert" league though, I'm especially proud of. The league has 15 man rosters (10 active, 5 bench) and I have ZERO players from my original draft. That's right, every single one of my guys had been either dropped or traded. I rebuilt that team on the fly when my team was under performing. At my worst in early December, I was actually dead last in the league. And as few as a month ago, I was stuck in 9th and nearly 14 games back from 6th place. But some timely trades and pickups (McDyess FTW!), I dominated these last 4 weeks, going 41-11, and secured myself a 5th seed.

I think this shows that no matter how bad your team might be, you can still make the playoffs if you're willing to make the adjustments (trades, drops). The important thing is to recognize your problem early (don't wait until February) and stay active on the FA lists. I'd say if you were over 1.5 full weeks behind 6th place around December/January, it's time for a major shakeup. For standard Yahoo leagues with 9 cats, that'd be ~13-14 games behind. And when it's time for a major shakeup, don't get too hung up on your major names that might be slumping/injured. When you're behind, it's important to get your games played. Even scrapping my 5-4 or 4-5 is better than consistent 2-7 beatdowns. You don't want to slip too far back in the rankings.

FWIW, here's my original roster and their current replacements, obtained either via trade or pickup.

	Drafted	Current Roster
1	Carlos Boozer	Steve Nash
2	Deron Williams	Jason Kidd
3	Chris Kaman	Antonio McDyess
4	Gerald Wallace	Andre Igudala
5	Andrew Bogut	Kendrick Perkins
6	David Lee	Chris Anderson
7	Derrick Rose	Mike Miller
8	Raymond Felton	Raja Bell
9	Monta Ellis	Jason Terry
10	Kirk Hinrich	Anthony Randolph
11	Rudy Fernandez	JR Smith
12	Grant Hill	Ronnie Brewer
13	Tyrus Thomas	Thabo Sefolosha
14	Luke Ridnour	Ramon Sessions
15	Quentin Richardson	Darius Songalia

And on a semi-related note, I'm also dominating my March Madness Bracket too. 42/48 correct picks and I still got every team going to the sweet 16. Yes, that means #12 Arizona and #5 Purdue. Go me! I rock at fantasy. Somebody should hire me to be a real gm/analyst ;-)

And now, here's a couple random new Shaq videos. Cuz you know, I'm all about the Diesel.

Grandpa

Greg Oden. It's not a case of faked birth dates or other shenanigans. He really just looks old. Honest. And as proof, here's him in middle school. Click the link. It's EPIC.

Click to See

The road to nowhere

If you don't know by now, my Phoenix Suns have been all but eliminated from playoff contention. They're currently 5 games behind Dallas with 17 games to go and they still have tough games in Utah, NO, POR, DAL, and home games again HOU and Utah again. So yeah, basically the Mavs can play .500 ball for the rest of the season and still make it easily over the Suns. Season OVER!

I was going to write up a big 'ol post about the state of the Suns and what I hope they'll do in the offseason. But the reality is that there's really not much they can do and GM Kerr (as much as he tries) haven't proven himself to be either a shrewd drafter (see: Dragic, Lopez) nor an above average trader (see: Shaq trade, Bell/Diaw trade). Even worse, even if the Suns wanted to trade or draft, they have very few assets. This year they'll get the 14th pick, which unless you luck into a Granger type (17th pick, 2005), is probably gonna be a mediocre player. The Suns can tank next year, but they don't even have their 2010 pick as a result of the Kurt Thomas salary dump from a couple years ago.

And in terms of trades... Shaq is a large $20 mil expiring but I just don't think there'll be a real market for him unless the Suns want to take back longer/worse contacts (which they don't). I think a real possibility would be for the Suns to just buy Shaq out. Lets say Shaq swallows his ego a bit (haha, I know) and takes $15 out of $20 mil for the buyout. The Suns save $5 mil in salary and $5 mil in tax right away. If Shaq can get a MLE type deal around $5-6 mil (which I belive he can) then the Suns get half off that too (due to a "set off" provision). So overall, the Suns would save $12-13 mil and Shaq "only" looses $2-3 mil and can go play for a contender of his choice.

Besides Shaq... that's about it. J-Rich is owed $28 mil over the next two years. I doubt anybody touches that. Barbs is on a relatively cheap deal and won't bring back anything more than he's worth. Ditto that for Nash. Amare HAD value, but with the severity of his injefoury, I doubt any team will trade for him before he plays a game. So if anything, he'll be dealt during the next season and not during the summer.

Too bad. If the Suns HAD their 2010 pick, the plan would have been REALLY easy. Buyout Shaq. Let Hill and Barnes walk. Don't pick up the team option on Nash and try to do a sign and trade if possible for some youth and/or picks. Tank 2010 and hope for a high pick. Let Amare rehab even more in-season if necessary. Drot out a lineup Dragic, Barbs, J-Rich, Amundon, and Lopez and TANK. Then in 2010, rebuild around Amare + high pick(s) + ~$15 mil in cap space. 'Course then they wouldn't be my Suns anymore, considering I hate Amare and they don't have Shaq or Nash, but that would be the best course for the team. But alas, they don't have their 2010 so they still should try to win (not the championship, I'm realistic, just games) next year. How the hell Kerr & Sarver plan/hope to do that? I really can't even guess. Odds are, they stand pat and we end up being another middling team fighting for the 8th spot next season. (yay!)

Hmmph, so enough Suns prattling for now. It's just depressing. This is like my worst basketball fan season too. No Shaq in the playoffs, Oden has been constantly injured, and I just might miss my FIRST ever fantasy playoffs. I'm currently in 9th and 4 games back with two weeks to go. Basically, I gotta blow out my opponent both weeks and hope those ahead of me get some bad losses too. We'll see if I'm more clutch then the real life Suns.

SEASON OVER

SEASON OVER!!!

Jason is crying in a corner somewhere clutching one of his Shaq jerseys. When the tears stop maybe he'll find the energy/will to write up a rant about all that's wrong in the desert. But for now just tears.

Friday Lines

Last week was my best predictions ever... picking 17/26 right. I guess that all-star break helped me out too ;-)

So here's tonight's lines... kinda interesting that the MIA/TOR is player's choice. I know they're on the road and all... but you'd think that MIA would get a little more respect than that considering they're the 5th seed with an MVP candidate while the Raps are the 2nd worst in the east and have RuPaul on the team instead. ;-)

By the way, I planned on writing a post about Shaq's recent verbal shenanigans but I just haven't gotten around to it yet. Will do this weekend for sure. Anyway, here's tonight's lines...

New Jersey	9.5	+201.5
Orlando	-9.5	-201.5
Atlanta	3	+183
Charlotte	-3	-183
Miami	0	+202.5
Toronto	0	-202.5
Golden State	9	+208
Detroit	-9	-208
Cleveland	1.5	+186
Boston	-1.5	-186
Phoenix	5.5	+226
Houston	-5.5	-226
Washington	12.5	+187.5
San Antonio	-12.5	-187.5
Milwaukee	6.5	+205.5
Chicago	-6.5	-205.5
Denver	9	+209.5
Utah	-9	-209.5
Minnesota	15	+215.5
LA Lakers	-15	-215.5

The Race for Eighth

So, the Mavericks lost last night. To Oklahoma City of all teams. The fact that they almost lost at home, to a Durant-less OKC team three nights ago, should have at least made the Mavericks take notice of the Thunder, if not come straight out ready to make a statement. Instead, they proceed to suck it up on the road in OKC and almost get blown out. They were actually down 20 going into the 4th before they tightened their D up to make it a semi-close game, eventually losing by 9, 96-87. Really, that's just pathetic. And you can't even complain about matchup problems like their old Warriors series. Both Durant AND Green sat out in that Maverick loss. One of the WORST and YOUNGEST teams in the league spot you their two best players, and you almost lose by double digits, in the thick of the playoff race? WTF? Seriously, how are the Suns behind them in the standings?

Speaking of standings... in my opinion there's really five teams battling for the last 4 spots in the West, with one team left out of the playoff party. I don't think the Jazz will miss. They're surging hard right now, going 10-1 in February, and finally have their whole team back. Boozer and AK just returned from surgeries and will be playing back into shape shortly, meanwhile Deron has shook off his early season rust (also from surgery) and have been putting up All-Star type numbers for the past 6 weeks or so. And with their earlier injuries, former role players Brewer and Millsap have really come into their own this season. Brewer's ppg has been climbing all season, from 14 ppg in January to 17 ppg in February, and post all-star break, he's been averaging close to 20/5. Meanwhile Millsap has been a fantastic fill-in for Boozer and has shown that with starter minutes, he's a 16/10, 1 stl, 1 blk kinda guy. With that kind of production from their "role players" and their notoriously tough home court, the Jazz are a lock for the playoffs. Ff anything, the Jazz just might grab the 3rd seed.

No, in my opinion, the 5 teams fighting for the 4 spots are Houston, Dallas, New Orleans, Phoenix, and Portland. Currently, Phoenix is the one in 9th and 1 game back from Dallas. So I crunch some numbers, so here's how the rest of their schedules match up.

Team	Games	Home	Away	Avg Opp.	Vs. Bigs	Vs. Bigs (a)
HOU	22	11	11	0.539	14	8
DAL	22	11	11	0.528	12	6
NO	23	11	12	0.472	10	3
PHX	23	11	12	0.488	12	7
POR	23	11	12	0.497	10	4

The above chart shows how many games each team has left as of tonight (March 3) and how many are home or away games. It also shows the average winning % of their opponents, how many against the big 12 teams in the league (Western top 9 + BOS, CLE, ORL), and how many of those big matchups are away.

From that list, Houston seems to have the toughest schedule. Over half of their remaining games are against powerhouse teams and over half of those are on the road. PHX and DAL looks like a close tie with both having 12 matchups with the Biggies. PHX has 1 more overal road game (11 vs. 12) and one more overall road biggie (6 vs. 7), but their average opponent winning percentage is much lower (.488 vs .528). Meanwhile, another "lock" looks to be New Orleans who has the easiest schedule. Their opponent winning % is the lowest at .472 and only 3 of their 10 big matchups are on the road.

Looking at this and after last night's embarassingly loss to the Thunder... I'm willing to bet that the Mavs are the ones that will miss the playoffs. 'Course that's not always too bad. At least they'll get a swing at the lotto. And whoever gets the 7th or 8th seeds probably won't last too long against LA or San Antonio.

By the way, if you want to play around with the numbers yourself. My spreadsheet is available here.

Edit: Just realized I forgot to explain why I think Houston makes it despite having the hardest schedule. First of all, they only have 22 losses, so they're actually 4 games ahead of the Suns (26L) after our lost tonight against the Magic and 2 games ahead of the Mavericks (24L). That's a HUGE difference with so few games remaining. Also, I know McGrady is out for the season with microfracture surgery, but I think they're actually better without him. Since T-Mac has been out, the Rockets have gone 7-1. Yeah, 6 of those victories were at home, but they still include quality wins against the likes of CLE, POR, and DAL. The defensive advantages of having Battier and Artest out there at the same time have been tremendous. For a more in depth look at their D, check out this excellent article by ESPN, breaking down how the Rockets decided to cover and contain Lebron James, holding him to just 7-21 shooting and a career low 0 assist.

Mini Mac NOOOO

So Luther Head has been waived by the Rockets. Kinda surprising. It must mean that the Rockets are about to bring somebody new aboard.

"Mini Mac" is a nickname that I coined for Luther Head a few years ago (yes I coined it, came up with it myself, and I've never heard anybody call him that before.) If you've ever watched any Rocket games, you'll know what I mean. The guy is definitely a chucker and loves to shoot (though he's pretty good from the arc, career 39.6% from the 3). He can heat up quickly and hit a couple back-to-back 3s to trigger a run and he's not afraid at all to take the big shots at the end of close games. He's not much of a ball handler/playmaker though (despite attempts to make him one) and he's a bit under sized (6-3, 185lb) for the 2-spot. But he's good in spot minutes and has even done okay when forced into bigger roles. FYI, in 2006, as a starter in 10 games, he averaged 16 pts, 4 asts, 4 rebs in 38 minutes... though that is not an endorsement in anyway that I think he should be a starter. No, he's solid backup 7-8th man in this league but he definitely belongs on a roster.

He's basically a younger and slightly more athletic Eddie House. Too bad the Suns and coach Gentry seems to have a renewed commitment to Gragic or I'd love for Phoenix to pick him up for the stretch run. Sure, he can't really be a playmaker/backup PG, but then neither can Dragic. And at least he's not a TO machine and he can shoot. All he'd need to do is to dribble the ball up and hand it to Barbs or Hill and then go camp in a corner. That would be more productive than Dragic. Hell, that'd be more productive than Tucker... who's just as seldom used and an even worse chucker when he does get into the game. Seriously, for a such a penny pinching organization, why are the Suns paying so much money ($1 mil+) for scrubs that won't even (or at least really shouldn't) play when there are other scrubs and d-leaguers that can do the same things for like 1/2 the pay.

Edit... it now appears that the Nets are interested in signing Head. Meanwhile, the Suns are interested in Stromile Swift. Seriously?!?! Swift. Talk about a headcase + scrub. He hasn't been productive in 4+ seasons on 3 different teams and apparently went AWOL on the Nets this year (after being dumped as a cancer by the Grizzlies last year). I'd rather have Mikki Moore a thousand times over. At least Moore, by all indications, is a veteran professional and good locker room presence. Bah! What's wrong with the PHX front office? At least TRY for the better talents in Moore or Gooden, else roll with a d-league. Stromile is DONE!

Shaq Shaq Shaq

Ask and ye shall receive. 45 pts, 11 rebs, 2 asts, 3stls, 1 blk, on ridiculously stupid percentages of 20-25 from the field and 5-8 from the line. Without Nash and Amare, the Suns needed somebody to step up and boy did Shaq ever step up. For one more night at least, old Shaq looked like the Shaq of old on Friday night. In fact, his 45 point performance against the Raptors was actually his highest output since his Laker days. With only 25 FGA and 8 FTA, despite playing 35+ minutes and the team amassing 98 FGA... Shaq probably could have gotten 50 pts easily if his teammates were looking for him even more. The last 3 min of the 1st half was especially glaring. The Raptors were making a run and instead of waiting and feeding Shaq, Barbs and J-Rich both made ill-advised drives (going 1 on 4) that resulted in bad shots while Hill committed a turnover trying to drive and kickout to Barbs instead of dumping into an open Diesel in the paint. In that brief 1:30 stretch the Raptors went on a 11-0 run to cut Phoenix’s from 12 points to 1 to close the first half. If it wasn’t for that run, the game would probably have been in the can by the end of the 3rd.

Postgame, Bosh complained about a lack of 3 second calls against Shaq. All I gotta say is that's a B.S. complaint. All you have to do is step out of the paint after 3 seconds and you can step right back in and Shaq was doing that, actively moving from side to side in the paint and sealing his man while calling for the ball. Still though, some credit (or discredit) much be given considering his "defenders" were a mix of Bosh, Bargani, and Voskul. Bosh and Bargs are two of the softer power forwards in the league and both are giving up 50+ pounds to the Diesel. Neither forwards really enjoy contact or bodying up in the paint and on most possessions, they'd just let Shaq bump and move 'em wherever the Big Fella wanted to. As for Voskul, despite being in 6 fantasy leagues, I actually didn't even know he was still in the league until Friday's game. A quick look at his profile shows that he's only played in 25 games this year and is averaging a paltry 6:30 minutes a game... so I don't feel too bad about not knowing him. He was basically a non factor as well, drawing 6 fouls and fouling out in a quick 7:30.

The Raptors as a team also played Shaq really poorly. I'm not sure if it’s the players or the coach... but with Shaq, normally you'd want to attack him in the paint and try to draw some fouls. The Raps don't really have any elite/athletic guards so that job has to fall to the bigs, but both Bargs and Bosh elected for the jump shot more often than not than to try and take the Diesel off the dribble. And on defense, despite absolutely KILLING them in the paint (Shaq was actually 20 for 23 up until the last 4:56, his last two attempts were misses), Toronto decided for whatever reason not to double Shaq for most of the game. And they couldn't really afford to waste any fouls from Bosh or Bargs so basically Shaq had his way in the paint. I would think that most other teams in the league would have sent a small in to double Shaq and commit the fouls if necessary. The fact that Shaq only had 8 attempts at the line despite the high number of touches/attempts that he got is really indicative of the Raptor's failed defensive scheme.

And I know I promised to stop lamenting about the Porter days... but it's games like this like makes me wonder why it didn't all work out and why the players couldn't have made it work. I mean, look at the evidence... the last time Nash was out and we played a bottom feeder... it was the Kings and we barely won by 2. We only had 78 FGA (even with OT), Shaq only had 15 FGA, and Amare only grabbed 5 boards. Our leading "playmaker" that game was Shaq and he only had 6 asts. Flash forward a few months and now we're scoring 133 points and hoisting 98 shots. Barbs, J-Rich, and Barnes all had 12+ FGA and Hill (in the playmaker role) had 12 asts while Amundson (in the PF role) had 20-10. And despite all that, this was as a post-up, Shaq centered game as we could get, but we still ran when we could and dumped it to Shaq when we couldn’t. Shaq had 45 but there was still lots of stats to go around. And it’s not like the Kings are better than the Raptors and I still refuse to give too much credit to new coach Alvin Gentry. But THIS is how we should have been playing all season... more so than the stand around offense of Porter and more so than the seven-seconds-or-less offense of those 140 pt. Clipper blowouts. It’s about balance and this is how we should play going forward and in the playoffs (if we make it).

Ah wells, I swear that was my very last post concerning the Porter era. Let bygones be bygones, I will not mention the name "Porter" again on this blog (unless he gets hired somewhere or something like that). Lets just be happy with Shaq's 45 points and our 20 point win. Hooray!

Speaking of hooray, the Lakers also lost badly to the Nuggets on the same night as well so it was pretty much the best Friday game night I could ask for. Hopefully we can carry some of our play/momentum into Sunday's rematch with the Lake Show. At least we're at home this time. Probably without Nash still but maybe we can steal one... or at least keep in competitive. PLEASE KEEP IT COMPETITIVE! Don’t ruin my Sunday!

And lastly, in case you missed it, here's some of Shaq's highlights from the game...