So, I got 6/7 on both the East and West teams and 8/9 on both the rookie and sophomore teams... not too bad I guess. The rookies and sophomore misses... I don't have a problem with at all. Aaron Brooks instead of Nick Young, Marc Gasol instead of Kevin Love. Both Brooks and Gasol were on my first honorable mentions and have put up excellent and comparable campaigns thus far this season. Congrats to them.
The all-stars though... I'm upset with both of my misses. Ray Allen seriously got screwed. Despite their little 2-7 slide after Christmas, the Celtics are just as formidable as ever and are still ranked 1st in the Eastern conference as of this post. Ray Allen in 2nd in minutes played (by mere seconds) to Pierce. He's also second in scoring, again to Pierce (though on much better percentages, 50% fg, 41% 3pt).
Advance stats wise... Allen has the greatest DRtg and ORtg difference on the Celtics at 20 (points scored per 100 possessions vs. points given per 100 possessions). He's also got the highest Win Share (7.3 vs. 64.) and is 2nd in PER. Oh yeah, and he also leads the team in +/- at 11.9. It'd be easy to argue that he's the best Celtic so far, or at least better than Pierce. He totally deserved to go over Harris... who like I noted, has been slumping for the past 5-6 weeks and is playing on a worse team.
And in the west, David West is an even worse all-star selection. I'm sorry, but if you're a big (PF/C) and "all-star" level, you need to friggin grab 10 rebounds or be damn close to it.
Lets go back to advance stats, cuz well, I like stats! Lets compare West to his other PF all-star mates in Gasol, Amare, and Dirk... keep in mind that I've already said that Amare doesn't deserve his all-star nod, so technically, West should have BETTER stats than Amare, but he doesn't. Per 36 min, he has the worst rebounding numbers at 6.7 rpg. That's like a small forward's numbers. Pathetic. True rebound rate (adjusting for # of possessions), West still comes in last at 11.6%. FG% wise, he's 2nd to last, and just .003% better than Dirk, though Dirk shoots 3s. When you look at True Shooting % (adjusts for 3s and FTs) or Effective FG % (adjusts for 2s and 3s), he's dead last. He's also dead last in PER as well.
I understand he was an all-star last year, but that was partially because the Hornets were the top team then and such a pleasant surprise to everyone. This year, the Hornets are slightly worse (28 wins through their first 42 games vs. 30 wins last year), and West is having a down season on top of missing his last 5 games (and counting). That's a piss poor selection imho. I didn't even mention him at all (honorable mentions or otherwise) cuz I didn't think he was even close to all-star level. Ah well, at least that means Aldridge will soon be an all-star too, considering their stats are actually VERY close.
Oh yeah, big props to Shaq for making it. I'm sure the whole Shaq/Kobe union will be the dominant topic for all-star weekend. Being the big host and all, I expect lots of fun shenanigans from Shaq that weekend and maybe even a Kobe to Shaq alley-oop too ;-)
In honor of Shaq, here's a retread of his impromptu dance off with LeBron and Dwight at his last all-star appearance.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Friday Postings
Here's my lines for tonight... since I've been doing so bad lately at this and have only cracked 50% or better once... I'm taking the opposite approach tonight. I made my picks beforehand, but am posting the opposite picks instead. If I suddenly go 75% or such, well, then I'll be on to something then... Oh yeah, All-Star reactions in my next post, I just want to get this out before any games actually starts. Gotta be truthful about it, right?
| Washington | 10 | +194 |
| Phila. | -10 | -194 |
| Milwaukee | 7.5 | +199.5 |
| Toronto | -7.5 | -199.5 |
| Boston | -6.5 | +181 |
| Detroit | 6.5 | -181 |
| Miami | 3 | +207.5 |
| Indiana | -3 | -207.5 |
| New Jersey | 7 | +198 |
| Atlanta | -7 | -198 |
| LA Clippers | 15.5 | +189 |
| Cleveland | -15.5 | -189 |
| LA Lakers | -7 | +208.5 |
| Minnesota | 7 | -208.5 |
| Oklahoma City | 10 | +212 |
| Utah | -10 | -212 |
| Charlotte | 10 | +193 |
| Denver | -10 | -193 |
| Golden State | 9.5 | +215 |
| New Orleans | -9.5 | -215 |
| Chicago | 0 | +212.5 |
| Sacramento | 0 | -212.5 |
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
All-Star
So, tomorrow night TNT will announce the reserve lineups for the All-Star game. Since I like to make predictions/speculations about everything else, I'd be remiss if I didn't make my own choices as well. So here we go...
West...
C - S. O'Neal (18/9 for the season, 21/9.5 since Dec. + all the nostalgia + the name = 'nuff said)
F - P. Gasol
F - D. Nowitzki
G - B. Roy
G - C. Billups
O - T. Parker
O - C. Anthony
... basically every team in the top 9 in the west gets to send at least 1 guy. And the best ones (LAL, SAS, DEN) get to send two. PHX gets two even though they're not in the top 3 cuz they're the host city and all. Though, imho, Amare really doesn't deserve it (but the fans, or at least the NBA rigged it that way). If I had my choice, Nash would get that last spot and Melo would have been voted into the starting lineup (and I hate Melo). Utah doesn't get any because all their stars have been hurt too much. If Boozer had played all season, he'd be a shoo-in (probably over Melo). As for Deron, he missed almost all of November and played hurt/rusty through the first week of Decemeber. It hasn't been until the new year, that he's looked liked an all-star (19.7/10.8 for the year), though his shot has still been off (43%). It'sa shame, but I think he'll miss the all-star game again this year. It's really weird/sad, but most fans would probably rank Deron as a top3 PG in the league, yet he hasn't been able to make the All-Star game for 4 years now. Maybe next year. Honorable mention goes out to Al Jefferson and Kevin Durant... both are putting on gaudy numbers and their teams have been playing much better lately. Still, though, with all that competition in the west... I think you have to reward the team records.
As for the East...
C - C. Bosh (they're gonna cheat him into this spot, just like last year, cuz there's no other Cs in the east)
F - D. Granger (26 pts, 4th best in the NBA)
F - P. Pierce
G - J. Johnson
G - J. Nelson
O - R. Allen
O - R. Lewis
That's right, Celts and the Magic both get to send 3. That's what you get for being so far and away from anyone else. Big Z probably would have made it from the Cavs too, but he's been hurt too long. Mo Williams of the Cavs is a long shot but Nelson's stats are just so much better. And really... the Cavs are a one man, Lebron show. He means so much more to that team the KG or Dwight to their teams. As for the rest... the east is a bit different in that there's no that much difference bettween the eighth seed (currently MIL @ 22-26) and the 2nd worst record in the East (currently IND @ 17-27). Record wise, it's 2.5 games back, but I like to count just losses (since you don't get those back), so really, it's like 1 game separating 8th and 14th. As such, there's no clear cut guarantee for a "playoff bound" team to get an All-Star. Your really have to stand out from your peers and nobody from DET, PHI, or MIL really do that. That's same reason why great players (Bosh and Granger) from bad teams get to make it.
Honorable mentions go out to Devin Harris, Vince Carter, and Andre Igudala. Harris looked like a sure thing through early December, but he's been fading fast recently (15 pts in Jan, down from 22 in Dec, and 26 in Nov). While Carter's stats hasn't fallen that much, he's hurt by the Nets overall drop, going 11-18 since the start of Dec. As for Igudala, he's actually the opposite. Iggy started slow in Nov (13 pts), picked up speed in Dec (19 pts), and am now playing near all-star levels (22.6 pts, 5.9 rebs, 6.2 asts, 2.2 stls, 54% fg in Jan). And the Sixers are actually sitting in 7th and playoff bound. Still though, most people thought the Sixers would be BETTER than they are currently (myself included). If Iggy was playing this well all season then he'd be a shoo in as well, as it is, he'll probably have to wait for next year like Deron too.
So yup, that's my picks for the All-Star game. I'll tentatively give the All-Star MVP nod to James as well.
And while I'm at it... here's my picks for the rookie/sophmore games too, no explanations given/needed ;-)
Rookies:
G. Oden
K. Love
M. Beasley
O. Mayo
D. Rose
B. Lopez
R. Westbrook
E. Gordon
R. Fernandez
... honorable mentions goes out to M. Gasol, M. Chalmers, and J. Thompson... but this crop of rookies are just too good. If somebody was gonna steal that last spot from Rudy, it'd be Gasol, but for now, I'm gonna have to slot Fernandez in there. And I'm going to go ahead and give the rookies the nod this time to win the game.
Sophmores:
A. Horford
J. Green
A. Thornton
K. Durant
R. Stuckey
L. Scola
T. Young
W. Chandler
N. Young
...honorable mentions goes out to A. Brooks, S. Hawes, and D. Cook. Weird/interesting observation, but like the sophomores are almost all natural SFs. I count T. Young, Chandler, Green, Thornton, and Durant as all SFs. I guess that's just how the cookie crumbles. Green and Chandler can both play bigger at the 4 and Durant can play the 2 so I guess it'll be alright.
West...
C - S. O'Neal (18/9 for the season, 21/9.5 since Dec. + all the nostalgia + the name = 'nuff said)
F - P. Gasol
F - D. Nowitzki
G - B. Roy
G - C. Billups
O - T. Parker
O - C. Anthony
... basically every team in the top 9 in the west gets to send at least 1 guy. And the best ones (LAL, SAS, DEN) get to send two. PHX gets two even though they're not in the top 3 cuz they're the host city and all. Though, imho, Amare really doesn't deserve it (but the fans, or at least the NBA rigged it that way). If I had my choice, Nash would get that last spot and Melo would have been voted into the starting lineup (and I hate Melo). Utah doesn't get any because all their stars have been hurt too much. If Boozer had played all season, he'd be a shoo-in (probably over Melo). As for Deron, he missed almost all of November and played hurt/rusty through the first week of Decemeber. It hasn't been until the new year, that he's looked liked an all-star (19.7/10.8 for the year), though his shot has still been off (43%). It'sa shame, but I think he'll miss the all-star game again this year. It's really weird/sad, but most fans would probably rank Deron as a top3 PG in the league, yet he hasn't been able to make the All-Star game for 4 years now. Maybe next year. Honorable mention goes out to Al Jefferson and Kevin Durant... both are putting on gaudy numbers and their teams have been playing much better lately. Still, though, with all that competition in the west... I think you have to reward the team records.
As for the East...
C - C. Bosh (they're gonna cheat him into this spot, just like last year, cuz there's no other Cs in the east)
F - D. Granger (26 pts, 4th best in the NBA)
F - P. Pierce
G - J. Johnson
G - J. Nelson
O - R. Allen
O - R. Lewis
That's right, Celts and the Magic both get to send 3. That's what you get for being so far and away from anyone else. Big Z probably would have made it from the Cavs too, but he's been hurt too long. Mo Williams of the Cavs is a long shot but Nelson's stats are just so much better. And really... the Cavs are a one man, Lebron show. He means so much more to that team the KG or Dwight to their teams. As for the rest... the east is a bit different in that there's no that much difference bettween the eighth seed (currently MIL @ 22-26) and the 2nd worst record in the East (currently IND @ 17-27). Record wise, it's 2.5 games back, but I like to count just losses (since you don't get those back), so really, it's like 1 game separating 8th and 14th. As such, there's no clear cut guarantee for a "playoff bound" team to get an All-Star. Your really have to stand out from your peers and nobody from DET, PHI, or MIL really do that. That's same reason why great players (Bosh and Granger) from bad teams get to make it.
Honorable mentions go out to Devin Harris, Vince Carter, and Andre Igudala. Harris looked like a sure thing through early December, but he's been fading fast recently (15 pts in Jan, down from 22 in Dec, and 26 in Nov). While Carter's stats hasn't fallen that much, he's hurt by the Nets overall drop, going 11-18 since the start of Dec. As for Igudala, he's actually the opposite. Iggy started slow in Nov (13 pts), picked up speed in Dec (19 pts), and am now playing near all-star levels (22.6 pts, 5.9 rebs, 6.2 asts, 2.2 stls, 54% fg in Jan). And the Sixers are actually sitting in 7th and playoff bound. Still though, most people thought the Sixers would be BETTER than they are currently (myself included). If Iggy was playing this well all season then he'd be a shoo in as well, as it is, he'll probably have to wait for next year like Deron too.
So yup, that's my picks for the All-Star game. I'll tentatively give the All-Star MVP nod to James as well.
And while I'm at it... here's my picks for the rookie/sophmore games too, no explanations given/needed ;-)
Rookies:
G. Oden
K. Love
M. Beasley
O. Mayo
D. Rose
B. Lopez
R. Westbrook
E. Gordon
R. Fernandez
... honorable mentions goes out to M. Gasol, M. Chalmers, and J. Thompson... but this crop of rookies are just too good. If somebody was gonna steal that last spot from Rudy, it'd be Gasol, but for now, I'm gonna have to slot Fernandez in there. And I'm going to go ahead and give the rookies the nod this time to win the game.
Sophmores:
A. Horford
J. Green
A. Thornton
K. Durant
R. Stuckey
L. Scola
T. Young
W. Chandler
N. Young
...honorable mentions goes out to A. Brooks, S. Hawes, and D. Cook. Weird/interesting observation, but like the sophomores are almost all natural SFs. I count T. Young, Chandler, Green, Thornton, and Durant as all SFs. I guess that's just how the cookie crumbles. Green and Chandler can both play bigger at the 4 and Durant can play the 2 so I guess it'll be alright.
Monday, January 26, 2009
You wanna be the champ, you gotta play like the champ
Hmm, so maybe the Suns are just following the Celtics' footsteps. They were looking great early, dropped a tough one against the Lakers on Christmas, then dropped 7 of 9 (mostly on the road) before righting their ship and rattling off 8 straight again to get right back in the thick for best record in the NBA.
So, the Suns were looking great right after the Richardson trade, winning 9 out of 12. Then they drop a tough one against the Nuggets, then procceded to drop 5 out of 6 before their win last night against the Hawks.
More likely though, the Suns are just a bad/incohesive team. Our bench is appalling bad and are frequently all double digit negatives in the +/- column. Our starters get off to a 5-10 pt lead, our subs go in, and it's a 5-10 pt deficit when the starters come back in. Our starters claw and fight to get back to even or better and our bench just coughes it all up again later. Rinse and repeat. Just check out the lines from our NYK and ATL games. This puts a huge burden on our already aging stars. The trade deadline is in less than a month (Feb. 19th). If the management won't/can't trade Amare, then I really hope they'll pay the vet min. for some waived vets in a month. Usually, a handful of expiring vets are waived after the trade deadline if their teams couldn't make a move and don't plan to play them for the rest of the season. This is usually done as a courtesy since those now literally unmovable and going to expire anyways and this gives the vets a chance to sign on with a new team.
Two years ago, the Suns picked up Tim Thomas this way and he played a HUGE role for them in the playoffs. Last year they got Giricek, which sadly, didn't do much at all. Just browsing for seldom used expirings... this year, some possible names include: Stephon Marbury, Malik Rose, Tyrone Lue, Damon Jones, Stromile Swift, Donyell Marshall, and Theo Ratliff. Not exactly an awesome crop, but maybe Marbury or Lue could be picked up to play some backup minutes for Nash.
Anyhoo, that's enough rambling about the Suns.
Here's a funny from the NBA store. So, if you didn't know... the Bulls and Knicks all wear special green jerseys for St. Patty's day, while the Celtics wear their regular greens with gold lettering. See here:
Well, if creating (and selling) a whole new jersey to just 3 of the largest markets in the U.S. wasn't enough for the greedy opportunists at the NBA... here comes possibly the WORST marketing idea I've ever seen (in the NBA at least)...
LOL. I bet those are selling as well as them Rudy Gay jerseys at the NBA store. ;-)
So, the Suns were looking great right after the Richardson trade, winning 9 out of 12. Then they drop a tough one against the Nuggets, then procceded to drop 5 out of 6 before their win last night against the Hawks.
More likely though, the Suns are just a bad/incohesive team. Our bench is appalling bad and are frequently all double digit negatives in the +/- column. Our starters get off to a 5-10 pt lead, our subs go in, and it's a 5-10 pt deficit when the starters come back in. Our starters claw and fight to get back to even or better and our bench just coughes it all up again later. Rinse and repeat. Just check out the lines from our NYK and ATL games. This puts a huge burden on our already aging stars. The trade deadline is in less than a month (Feb. 19th). If the management won't/can't trade Amare, then I really hope they'll pay the vet min. for some waived vets in a month. Usually, a handful of expiring vets are waived after the trade deadline if their teams couldn't make a move and don't plan to play them for the rest of the season. This is usually done as a courtesy since those now literally unmovable and going to expire anyways and this gives the vets a chance to sign on with a new team.
Two years ago, the Suns picked up Tim Thomas this way and he played a HUGE role for them in the playoffs. Last year they got Giricek, which sadly, didn't do much at all. Just browsing for seldom used expirings... this year, some possible names include: Stephon Marbury, Malik Rose, Tyrone Lue, Damon Jones, Stromile Swift, Donyell Marshall, and Theo Ratliff. Not exactly an awesome crop, but maybe Marbury or Lue could be picked up to play some backup minutes for Nash.
Anyhoo, that's enough rambling about the Suns.
Here's a funny from the NBA store. So, if you didn't know... the Bulls and Knicks all wear special green jerseys for St. Patty's day, while the Celtics wear their regular greens with gold lettering. See here:
Well, if creating (and selling) a whole new jersey to just 3 of the largest markets in the U.S. wasn't enough for the greedy opportunists at the NBA... here comes possibly the WORST marketing idea I've ever seen (in the NBA at least)...
LOL. I bet those are selling as well as them Rudy Gay jerseys at the NBA store. ;-)
Friday, January 23, 2009
Friday Postings
Quick and dirty... here's my picks for tonight. If you don't care, then scroll to the bottom of the post for a funny from BDL and Garbage Time All Stars.
| Phoenix | -4.5 | +200.5 |
| Charlotte | 4.5 | -200.5 |
| Dallas | 3.5 | +186 |
| Detroit | -3.5 | -186 |
| Houston | -1 | +210 |
| Indiana | 1 | -210 |
| Milwaukee | 5.5 | +203 |
| Atlanta | -5.5 | -203 |
| Memphis | 5.5 | +203 |
| New York | -5.5 | -203 |
| New Orleans | -1 | +194 |
| Minnesota | 1 | -194 |
| New Jersey | 11 | +190 |
| San Antonio | -11 | -190 |
| Toronto | 2 | +197.5 |
| Chicago | -2 | -197.5 |
| Cleveland | -6.5 | +216 |
| Golden State | 6.5 | -216 |
| Oklahoma City | -2.5 | +194 |
| LA Clippers | 2.5 | -194 |
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Premature Speculation... Percentile Dysfunction
So, right before last Thursday night's game against the Nuggets, I stupidly bragged about how great the J-Rich trade was for the Suns, and how we were 9-3 since his acquisition, and will be a top 4 team in the west. Flash forward one week, and now the Suns have dropped 4/5, including a blowout to the Celtics and losses to sub .500 teams in the T-Wolves and Knicks. Humble pie, how I hate thee.
The only reason we're still in the thick of it has more to do with the equal ineptitude of our western competition than anything we're doing ourselves. Dallas, Portland, and Utah all lost last night too. In fact, we're only 5-5 in our last ten, but that's the same for Portland too. The Jazz (despite their myriad of injuries... Millsap just came back and now AK is out) are 6-4 in their last 10 while Dallas is actually 4-6. Speaking of Dallas... I guess you can say our blowout loss to the Celts was more respectable/understandable than their blowout loss to the Bucks. But naw, really, it's just sad/pathetic all over for seeds 5-8 in the west. With everybody else's struggles, this would have been a REALLY good time to put some distance between us and the rest of the pack. We SHOULD have gone at least 4-1 in this stretch, but alas, no, the Suns are chokers extraordinaires.
I really think the Suns need another trade. And like I said, the only chip we have left is Amare Stoudemire, and he REALLY needs to go. Yesterday against the Knicks, he let Steve Nash (6) and Grant Hill (5) outrebound him (4). And this is just 1 game after the Boston Massacre where Amare was outplayed by Brian friggin Scalabrine. His line in Boston? 3 pts (0-7 shooting), 1 rebound, 0 assists, 4 turnovers, in 30 minutes! Bah! That's the most pathetic line I've ever seen. It's one thing to be cold, but seriously, 1 rebound? How can you be 6-10 with his athleticism and get just 1 rebound? To be considered an All-Star and play 30 minutes and give such a pitiful effort is just sad.
Still though, despite all that ranting, he's probably the Suns' biggest trade asset right now, both in terms of perceived value and contract size. He can probably net us two quality players... ideally an above average starting quality PF (all-star not required) and a solid backup pg. Youth for both prefered but not necessary. You can see some of my previous Trade Amare ideas in this older post.
The only reason we're still in the thick of it has more to do with the equal ineptitude of our western competition than anything we're doing ourselves. Dallas, Portland, and Utah all lost last night too. In fact, we're only 5-5 in our last ten, but that's the same for Portland too. The Jazz (despite their myriad of injuries... Millsap just came back and now AK is out) are 6-4 in their last 10 while Dallas is actually 4-6. Speaking of Dallas... I guess you can say our blowout loss to the Celts was more respectable/understandable than their blowout loss to the Bucks. But naw, really, it's just sad/pathetic all over for seeds 5-8 in the west. With everybody else's struggles, this would have been a REALLY good time to put some distance between us and the rest of the pack. We SHOULD have gone at least 4-1 in this stretch, but alas, no, the Suns are chokers extraordinaires.
I really think the Suns need another trade. And like I said, the only chip we have left is Amare Stoudemire, and he REALLY needs to go. Yesterday against the Knicks, he let Steve Nash (6) and Grant Hill (5) outrebound him (4). And this is just 1 game after the Boston Massacre where Amare was outplayed by Brian friggin Scalabrine. His line in Boston? 3 pts (0-7 shooting), 1 rebound, 0 assists, 4 turnovers, in 30 minutes! Bah! That's the most pathetic line I've ever seen. It's one thing to be cold, but seriously, 1 rebound? How can you be 6-10 with his athleticism and get just 1 rebound? To be considered an All-Star and play 30 minutes and give such a pitiful effort is just sad.
Still though, despite all that ranting, he's probably the Suns' biggest trade asset right now, both in terms of perceived value and contract size. He can probably net us two quality players... ideally an above average starting quality PF (all-star not required) and a solid backup pg. Youth for both prefered but not necessary. You can see some of my previous Trade Amare ideas in this older post.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Friday Postings
Talk about a decisive win. Random news blurp, but a high school girl's basketball team held their opponent without a field goal for the ENTIRE game. They won, 94-1.
"I've had 100 points scored on me before, and I think it's important to respect the game and to respect your opponent," Frontier Academy head coach Nathan Buxman said this morning in a phone interview. "We show the most respect for our opponents by continuing to play hard."
That's damn impressive. And also sad for the other team. You figure, if all you did all game... for 40-50 possessions was to chuck crazy 3s anywhere from the arc to half court, you'd hit at least 1. Would be interesting to see some clips of that game.
Anyhoo, here's tonight's predictions...
"I've had 100 points scored on me before, and I think it's important to respect the game and to respect your opponent," Frontier Academy head coach Nathan Buxman said this morning in a phone interview. "We show the most respect for our opponents by continuing to play hard."
That's damn impressive. And also sad for the other team. You figure, if all you did all game... for 40-50 possessions was to chuck crazy 3s anywhere from the arc to half court, you'd hit at least 1. Would be interesting to see some clips of that game.
Anyhoo, here's tonight's predictions...
| New York | 3.5 | +208 |
| Washington | -3.5 | -208 |
| Toronto | 4.5 | +214 |
| Indiana | -4.5 | -214 |
| San Antonio | -3 | +193.5 |
| Phila. | 3 | -193.5 |
| Detroit | -4.5 | +188.5 |
| Oklahoma City | 4.5 | -188.5 |
| Utah | -4.5 | +194.5 |
| Memphis | 4.5 | -194.5 |
| New Orleans | 3 | +185 |
| Cleveland | -3 | -185 |
| Minnesota | 8 | +215 |
| Phoenix | -8 | -215 |
| Milwaukee | 0 | +207 |
| Sacramento | 0 | -207 |
| Orlando | 4.5 | +215 |
| LA Lakers | -4.5 | -215 |
| Atlanta | -1 | +216.5 |
| Golden State | 1 | -216.5 |
Jason... Assistant Coach
I guess Porter didn't read about the importance of last night's game, huh? With the Suns playing two sets of back-to-backs on Thur (@DEN)/Fri (MIN) and Sun(@TOR)/Mon(@BOS), he decided to give Shaq the night off against the Nuggets. Now, I get the whole resting games bit, Shaq is old and we want to preserve him. But why sit the Denver game? They're a conference rival and seeding/home court could come down to tiebreakers. We NEEDED to win that game. If Shaq's gonna sit... sit him for MIN and TOR. He'll be even MORE rested for Boston on Monday. That's just sheer stupidity on coach Porter's fault.
And speaking of Porter's stupidity... the offense, defense, set plays, etc, I'll give him a pass on all of those. But his rotations, man, that's just absurd. I have better rotations in 2K9. For two minutes there at the start of the 2nd quarter, he had an ALL bench lineup of Lopez, Barnes, Dudley, Tucker, and Barbosa in there. WTF?!?! In the first and third quarters, he should sub for J-Rich earlier so he can play more with Barbosa and the 2nd team. If you want to play Dudley or Tucker, fine, but only play them ONE at a time, and preferably with Nash being the decision maker out there. And Robin Lopez has just been TERRIBLE. The man is 7 ft tall and he manages to snag just TWO rebounds in 22 minutes, only 1 of which was a defensive rebound. He coughed up 3 turnovers to go with that failure on the boards. Not surprisingly, he also had the worst +/- of the team at -19. Couldn't Porter had found more minutes for Amundson? Lou had been playing much better recently, was a +6 for the game, yet only got 13 minutes. Btw, he managed to grab 6 boards (4 defensive) , block 2 shots, and commit 0 turnovers during that stretch. Bench is bench, play your best guys!
Nash and Amare should play together more. Having Amare out there with the 2nd team is a bit counterproductive since Amare CAN'T create for himself (no back to the basket game) and we have no real backup PG. Play J-Rich and Hill with Barbs and the 2nd team more, since all three of them can reasonably create for themselves.
Here's what I would do... you take J-Rich and Hill out around the 5 minute mark, bring in Barbs and Barnes. Amundson comes in whenever Lopez is tired, playing crappy, and/or in foul trouble. When Nash and Amare sit at the end of the 1st or start of the 2nd, return J-Rich and Hill and go small with Amundson at the C. That's an eight man rotation. That's good enough. If you really want to, you can cheat a few of Hill, Amundson, or Barnes's minutes (while Nash is on the court) and get Dudley and/or Tucker in there for 2-3 minutes at a a time. Lopez and Amundson should be playing even minutes, if not more for Amundson since he'll combo the F-C while Lopez is stricly C. Also, tell Barbs that if his shot isn't falling (1-11 from the field, 0-5 from the 3), chucking up rainbows over Nene probably ain't the best idea. ATTACK the friggin basket!!!
Anyhoo... yeah, that's about all I have for that game. Missed the Portland game against New Jersey so I don't have much to say about that. 'Cept just 13 min w/ 2 fouls for Oden. I'm VERY disappointed. Granted he had a -9 in that brief stretch, but at least give the man a chance to redeem himself. With his recent suckage, I'm seriously contemplating dropping Oden in one of my fantasy leagues (hold him in two). Oh yeah, I did catch this SICK dunk by Bayless on the highlight reel though...
And speaking of Porter's stupidity... the offense, defense, set plays, etc, I'll give him a pass on all of those. But his rotations, man, that's just absurd. I have better rotations in 2K9. For two minutes there at the start of the 2nd quarter, he had an ALL bench lineup of Lopez, Barnes, Dudley, Tucker, and Barbosa in there. WTF?!?! In the first and third quarters, he should sub for J-Rich earlier so he can play more with Barbosa and the 2nd team. If you want to play Dudley or Tucker, fine, but only play them ONE at a time, and preferably with Nash being the decision maker out there. And Robin Lopez has just been TERRIBLE. The man is 7 ft tall and he manages to snag just TWO rebounds in 22 minutes, only 1 of which was a defensive rebound. He coughed up 3 turnovers to go with that failure on the boards. Not surprisingly, he also had the worst +/- of the team at -19. Couldn't Porter had found more minutes for Amundson? Lou had been playing much better recently, was a +6 for the game, yet only got 13 minutes. Btw, he managed to grab 6 boards (4 defensive) , block 2 shots, and commit 0 turnovers during that stretch. Bench is bench, play your best guys!
Nash and Amare should play together more. Having Amare out there with the 2nd team is a bit counterproductive since Amare CAN'T create for himself (no back to the basket game) and we have no real backup PG. Play J-Rich and Hill with Barbs and the 2nd team more, since all three of them can reasonably create for themselves.
Here's what I would do... you take J-Rich and Hill out around the 5 minute mark, bring in Barbs and Barnes. Amundson comes in whenever Lopez is tired, playing crappy, and/or in foul trouble. When Nash and Amare sit at the end of the 1st or start of the 2nd, return J-Rich and Hill and go small with Amundson at the C. That's an eight man rotation. That's good enough. If you really want to, you can cheat a few of Hill, Amundson, or Barnes's minutes (while Nash is on the court) and get Dudley and/or Tucker in there for 2-3 minutes at a a time. Lopez and Amundson should be playing even minutes, if not more for Amundson since he'll combo the F-C while Lopez is stricly C. Also, tell Barbs that if his shot isn't falling (1-11 from the field, 0-5 from the 3), chucking up rainbows over Nene probably ain't the best idea. ATTACK the friggin basket!!!
Anyhoo... yeah, that's about all I have for that game. Missed the Portland game against New Jersey so I don't have much to say about that. 'Cept just 13 min w/ 2 fouls for Oden. I'm VERY disappointed. Granted he had a -9 in that brief stretch, but at least give the man a chance to redeem himself. With his recent suckage, I'm seriously contemplating dropping Oden in one of my fantasy leagues (hold him in two). Oh yeah, I did catch this SICK dunk by Bayless on the highlight reel though...
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Ankle Insurance
So, tonight's a big night for the Suns. If we beat the Nuggets, we'll move into the top 4 in the west. I'd just like to take a moment here and confirm what a great trade Jason Richardson turned out to be. With J-Rich in the lineup, we're 9-3, with two of those losses due to last second 3s from the opponent (SAS & IND). Sure, we've beaten our share of scrub teams during this recent run, but we've also had quality wins against playoff bound teams like the Hawks, Mavs, Nuggets, and Magic. IMHO, we will end up with home court in the first round.
And I saw the triple overtime game between GS and Sacto last night. Sacto was up three at the end of the first OT. Turiaf caught the inbound pass and instead of fouling him (career 70% FT), Sacto lets him screen for and pass to Azubuike for the game tying 3. Then at the end of the second OT, it was GS who was up 3. With 6 seconds to go and Sacto out of timeouts, GS let Kevin Martin dribble all the way up court to make the game tying 3 to send in to triple OT. While that was exciting and all... it was just stupid, stupid, stupid basketball. It was the same last year in the playoffs, when the Suns let the Spurs kill them with 3s by Finely and Duncan at the end of regulation and overtime. I seriously don't understand why so few teams foul when they're up 3 late. When you have great FT shooters like Martin (86%), Crawford (85%), and Nash (90%), I'd take my chances on my guy to hit those FTs over stopping the opponent anyday.
I also caught the LAL/SAS game... and damn, SAS probably has the best front office in the league. I hate to give them their props, but they do just about EVERYTHING well. From drafting, to trades, to FA signings. I don't watch that many SAS games but that's two game winners so far this year I've seen by Roger Mason (PHO on Christmas being the other). Mason was a great AND cheap ($7 mil / 2 years) signing. It's amazing how SAS continues to keep their weapons stocked despite minimal cap room and late 1st picks. They lost Brent Barry this offseason and Bowen has noticeably lost a step due to age. But SAS just continues to roll along, drafting George Hill and signing Mason, and now their swing positions are as strong as ever.
And since the Lakers lost yesterday day and the Suns are doing so well lately, here's a rare Kobe post by me. Kobe, Insurance Salesman.
And I saw the triple overtime game between GS and Sacto last night. Sacto was up three at the end of the first OT. Turiaf caught the inbound pass and instead of fouling him (career 70% FT), Sacto lets him screen for and pass to Azubuike for the game tying 3. Then at the end of the second OT, it was GS who was up 3. With 6 seconds to go and Sacto out of timeouts, GS let Kevin Martin dribble all the way up court to make the game tying 3 to send in to triple OT. While that was exciting and all... it was just stupid, stupid, stupid basketball. It was the same last year in the playoffs, when the Suns let the Spurs kill them with 3s by Finely and Duncan at the end of regulation and overtime. I seriously don't understand why so few teams foul when they're up 3 late. When you have great FT shooters like Martin (86%), Crawford (85%), and Nash (90%), I'd take my chances on my guy to hit those FTs over stopping the opponent anyday.
I also caught the LAL/SAS game... and damn, SAS probably has the best front office in the league. I hate to give them their props, but they do just about EVERYTHING well. From drafting, to trades, to FA signings. I don't watch that many SAS games but that's two game winners so far this year I've seen by Roger Mason (PHO on Christmas being the other). Mason was a great AND cheap ($7 mil / 2 years) signing. It's amazing how SAS continues to keep their weapons stocked despite minimal cap room and late 1st picks. They lost Brent Barry this offseason and Bowen has noticeably lost a step due to age. But SAS just continues to roll along, drafting George Hill and signing Mason, and now their swing positions are as strong as ever.
And since the Lakers lost yesterday day and the Suns are doing so well lately, here's a rare Kobe post by me. Kobe, Insurance Salesman.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Darius Miles and the Cap
So, Darius Miles got resigned by the Grizzlies. With games tomorrow against the Cavs and the Jazz on Friday, by this weekend, Portland's salary cap situation could be seriously impacted. For a quick recap... Miles is owed $18 million over the next two years. His previous injuries were deemed career ending so his salary was being paid for by insurance (he still gets paid either way) and won't count against Portland's cap space. However, if he plays 10 games, then his salary goes back on Portland's cap and they have to pay it. He's already logged 8 games this season (6 in preseason with the Celts and 2 with the Griz) so it's pretty much a done deal he's gonna get that 10 games played this year.
I don't really want to get into who's ultimately wrong in this whole mess. Miles screwed up by not wanting to rehab properly and slacking off during his time with the Blazers. He never put in the effort in the gym and with the trainers to get back on the court until he was cut by the Blazers. The Blazers screwed up by threatening the every team in the league with frivolous lawsuits in a petty and ineffective attempt to keep them from signing Miles. And the Griz screwed up by signing Miles just to mess with Portland's cap space. I doubt any fan really think the Griz are signing Miles to help them win games. Not when a perfectly healthy Jaric is getting zero minutes and the Griz already have two vets (Buckner and Ross) coming off the bench in the wing positions.
Still though, it's not the end of the world for the Blazers. If they let Frye and Diogu walk (both seldom used), they'll be at $46 mil this summer. Assuming the cap will be ~$59 mil, they'll have $13 mil in space With max years and max raises (8%), they can hand out a 5 year, $75 million contract this summer (or split it between a couple players). Too bad Granger already re-upped or else he'd be an ideal target. Here's a list of all the RFA and FA for '09 and '10. IMHO, the only appealing targets are Turkoglu and A. Miller. So while having the option would have been nice, it's not like Portland really had enough target(s) for $20+ mil in cap space anyways. The only real hit is probably having to pay Mile's salary instead of having insurance pick it up.
But this situation brings up an interesting problem regarding guaranteed contracts and the salary cap. Just about every team out there are bogged down by one or more bad contract(s). Whether it's the players' fault (lack of effort) or not (plagued by injuries), these contracts, coupled with the restrictions on the salary cap makes roster moves difficult. In turn, as fans, we get an inferior product because either players play lackadaisically and/or teams have to undergo "rebuilding" stages as they dump talent and wait for bad contracts to expire.
So with that in mind, here's a couple of my ideas for fixing the cap problem. I think either or both options can seriously help and if the NBA ever adopts anything like these... just remember you read it here first. ;-)
1) Stop fully guaranteeing contracts. Too many players simply go into cruise control after they get a fat pay day, or else start sulking when their team stops wining (causing more losses, less effort, etc.) So, here's what I propose... for non-rookie deals, only 50% of the amount equal to the MLE (Mid Level Exception, the average salary of all NBA players) and 50% of any amounts thereafter can be fully guaranteed. The rest of the contract must be incentive/goal based.
So, here's an example. Say Marbury's contract is $20 million. The MLE is $5.5 million. So, he'll have the first $2.75 million guaranteed, plus 50% of the remaining amount ($17.25 million / 2 = $8.625 million ). So he'll have $13.75 million guaranteed. The remaining $8.265 million must be "earned". I think that's a big enough incentive for him to want to play well and work hard to get back from injuries.
Here's another example... Jerome James contract is $6.2 million. So he'll have the first $2.75 guaranteed, then 50% of the remaining amount ($3.45 million / 2 = $1.75 million). So he'll have $4.475 million guaranteed and $1.75 million in incentives. Obviously, these deals are more significant for superstar type players getting max or near max deals. But usually, it's those players and their dead weight deals that can really wreck a franchise.
The number and type of incentives/goals can be whatever the team and player agrees upon on a case by case basis. Some examples could be individual based like "play in 60 games" or "average 15 points". Others could be team based like "win 41 games" or "make the playoffs". Some could just be behavior based like "no altercations with the law" or "no more than 10 technical fouls". The exact number and type of incentives is up to the player and team. If the team is dumb enough to just have a "win 1 game" goal or something similar, then it's their own fault.
And players can't really complain because they're still getting a good chunk of their money. Well more than enough to feed their families ;-) And they agreed on the incentives too... so they should think they're able to achieve those marks. And if you're Grant Hill from his Orlando days or Steve Francis since '04-'05... do you really think you deserve ALL of that money?
By the way, the reason for guaranteeing the first part of the MLE is to protect the end of the bench guys. If you're a NBA player and only earning $1 mil, it'd suck to have half of it get taken away. To further protect players, all unearned incentives are paid into a general pool at the end of the season, kind of like the escrow tax, and then redistributed to the players (proportions to be determined later). That way, teams won't intentionally bench a player or tank games just to save some money since they have to pay that amount anyways. And the players' whole salary (guaranteed and incentives) count against the cap, so teams don't give out stupid contracts thinking players won't earn them.
2) My second idea is a lot simpler... just DON'T count waived or retired players against the salary cap. They'll still count against the luxury cap, so teams still have to be wary of paying dollar for dollar if they spend too much. But the salary cap should be just for players that are actually PLAYING on the team. This will make it much easier for teams to make roster changes. Since it still incurs the luxury tax, I don't think this would be abused that much, since only very few teams (Portland, New York, maybe Dallas) have the rich and willing owners to go over the lux. If they do go over, the poor teams also get bigger luxury tax shares at the end of the season. They might also be able to pick up more bargains among waived vets who are now willing to play for near vet minimums since they're already getting a paycheck elsewhere.
Well, that's all I got for now. A bit of a serious/boring post, but those ideas have just been rolling around in my head for a while. More youtube and funnies later this week, I promise!
I don't really want to get into who's ultimately wrong in this whole mess. Miles screwed up by not wanting to rehab properly and slacking off during his time with the Blazers. He never put in the effort in the gym and with the trainers to get back on the court until he was cut by the Blazers. The Blazers screwed up by threatening the every team in the league with frivolous lawsuits in a petty and ineffective attempt to keep them from signing Miles. And the Griz screwed up by signing Miles just to mess with Portland's cap space. I doubt any fan really think the Griz are signing Miles to help them win games. Not when a perfectly healthy Jaric is getting zero minutes and the Griz already have two vets (Buckner and Ross) coming off the bench in the wing positions.
Still though, it's not the end of the world for the Blazers. If they let Frye and Diogu walk (both seldom used), they'll be at $46 mil this summer. Assuming the cap will be ~$59 mil, they'll have $13 mil in space With max years and max raises (8%), they can hand out a 5 year, $75 million contract this summer (or split it between a couple players). Too bad Granger already re-upped or else he'd be an ideal target. Here's a list of all the RFA and FA for '09 and '10. IMHO, the only appealing targets are Turkoglu and A. Miller. So while having the option would have been nice, it's not like Portland really had enough target(s) for $20+ mil in cap space anyways. The only real hit is probably having to pay Mile's salary instead of having insurance pick it up.
But this situation brings up an interesting problem regarding guaranteed contracts and the salary cap. Just about every team out there are bogged down by one or more bad contract(s). Whether it's the players' fault (lack of effort) or not (plagued by injuries), these contracts, coupled with the restrictions on the salary cap makes roster moves difficult. In turn, as fans, we get an inferior product because either players play lackadaisically and/or teams have to undergo "rebuilding" stages as they dump talent and wait for bad contracts to expire.
So with that in mind, here's a couple of my ideas for fixing the cap problem. I think either or both options can seriously help and if the NBA ever adopts anything like these... just remember you read it here first. ;-)
1) Stop fully guaranteeing contracts. Too many players simply go into cruise control after they get a fat pay day, or else start sulking when their team stops wining (causing more losses, less effort, etc.) So, here's what I propose... for non-rookie deals, only 50% of the amount equal to the MLE (Mid Level Exception, the average salary of all NBA players) and 50% of any amounts thereafter can be fully guaranteed. The rest of the contract must be incentive/goal based.
So, here's an example. Say Marbury's contract is $20 million. The MLE is $5.5 million. So, he'll have the first $2.75 million guaranteed, plus 50% of the remaining amount ($17.25 million / 2 = $8.625 million ). So he'll have $13.75 million guaranteed. The remaining $8.265 million must be "earned". I think that's a big enough incentive for him to want to play well and work hard to get back from injuries.
Here's another example... Jerome James contract is $6.2 million. So he'll have the first $2.75 guaranteed, then 50% of the remaining amount ($3.45 million / 2 = $1.75 million). So he'll have $4.475 million guaranteed and $1.75 million in incentives. Obviously, these deals are more significant for superstar type players getting max or near max deals. But usually, it's those players and their dead weight deals that can really wreck a franchise.
The number and type of incentives/goals can be whatever the team and player agrees upon on a case by case basis. Some examples could be individual based like "play in 60 games" or "average 15 points". Others could be team based like "win 41 games" or "make the playoffs". Some could just be behavior based like "no altercations with the law" or "no more than 10 technical fouls". The exact number and type of incentives is up to the player and team. If the team is dumb enough to just have a "win 1 game" goal or something similar, then it's their own fault.
And players can't really complain because they're still getting a good chunk of their money. Well more than enough to feed their families ;-) And they agreed on the incentives too... so they should think they're able to achieve those marks. And if you're Grant Hill from his Orlando days or Steve Francis since '04-'05... do you really think you deserve ALL of that money?
By the way, the reason for guaranteeing the first part of the MLE is to protect the end of the bench guys. If you're a NBA player and only earning $1 mil, it'd suck to have half of it get taken away. To further protect players, all unearned incentives are paid into a general pool at the end of the season, kind of like the escrow tax, and then redistributed to the players (proportions to be determined later). That way, teams won't intentionally bench a player or tank games just to save some money since they have to pay that amount anyways. And the players' whole salary (guaranteed and incentives) count against the cap, so teams don't give out stupid contracts thinking players won't earn them.
2) My second idea is a lot simpler... just DON'T count waived or retired players against the salary cap. They'll still count against the luxury cap, so teams still have to be wary of paying dollar for dollar if they spend too much. But the salary cap should be just for players that are actually PLAYING on the team. This will make it much easier for teams to make roster changes. Since it still incurs the luxury tax, I don't think this would be abused that much, since only very few teams (Portland, New York, maybe Dallas) have the rich and willing owners to go over the lux. If they do go over, the poor teams also get bigger luxury tax shares at the end of the season. They might also be able to pick up more bargains among waived vets who are now willing to play for near vet minimums since they're already getting a paycheck elsewhere.
Well, that's all I got for now. A bit of a serious/boring post, but those ideas have just been rolling around in my head for a while. More youtube and funnies later this week, I promise!
Friday, January 9, 2009
Friday Posting
Sorry, I promised to update more and then I don't write for a week. I swear I'll write more this weekend (including rants/opinions on the current Darius Miles situation). In the meantime though, here's my predictions for tonight. I just want to get my picks in before the first tip-off. More thoughtful stuff later, I swear.
| Memphis | +6 | +190.5 |
| Toronto | -6 | -190.5 |
| Atlanta | +5 | +192.5 |
| Orlando | -5 | -192.5 |
| Charlotte | +5.5 | +191 |
| Phila. | -5.5 | -191 |
| Boston | +4 | +183 |
| Cleveland | -4 | -183 |
| Houston | -6.5 | +196.5 |
| Oklahoma City | +6.5 | -196.5 |
| LA Clippers | +15.5 | +185 |
| New Orleans | -15.5 | -185 |
| New Jersey | +7 | +193.5 |
| Milwaukee | -7 | -193.5 |
| Washington | +4.5 | +196.5 |
| Chicago | -4.5 | -196.5 |
| Detroit | +4 | +192.5 |
| Denver | -4 | -192.5 |
| Miami | -4 | +193.5 |
| Sacramento | +4 | -193.5 |
| Indiana | +14 | +225.5 |
| LA Lakers | -14 | -225.5 |
| Dallas | +6 | +209 |
| Phoenix | -6 | -209 |
Friday, January 2, 2009
Hold the Booze
Boozer apparently will now undergo surgery after Jan. 9th. You figure he'll need at least another month to recover, maybe more. So the earliest he's back will probably be late Feb. Worst case, he's not back till late March if at all. If you're riding at the top of your league... feel free to hold on to him, but if you're struggling for a top 6 spot, you might want to consider trading him super cheap or even cutting him altogether (once he's becomes droppable). And if you followed my whole 76ers/Jazz drafting strategy... I'm sorry. Between Boozer and Brand's currently injuries, Deron's earlier injuries and Igudala's earlier inconsistency... your team is probably a mess.
Sorry about my lack of updates in the last week... with the holidays and traveling... I haven't been watching that many games or reading that much bball stuff. New Years resolution... I'll write more, I promise. Also, speaking of the year and all... here's NBA TV's top 10 plays of the season.
Sorry about my lack of updates in the last week... with the holidays and traveling... I haven't been watching that many games or reading that much bball stuff. New Years resolution... I'll write more, I promise. Also, speaking of the year and all... here's NBA TV's top 10 plays of the season.
Friday Lines
So, last week I got 10/20 picks right. 8/10 on the over under and 2/10 on the spread. This is the second time that's happened. If this continues, I think I might just do the opposite of my intuition for the spread ;-)
Tonight's a BIG basketball night. New Years day is one of the few days in the season where NO team plays. Random trivia... the other days being Christmas Eve, the Monday after the all-star break, and the night of the NCAA championship game. Before this year, Thanksgiving night was also one of those days.
Anyhoo, considering nobody played yesterday, tonight, all 30 teams are playing. 15 game, 30 picks. Here we go...
Tonight's a BIG basketball night. New Years day is one of the few days in the season where NO team plays. Random trivia... the other days being Christmas Eve, the Monday after the all-star break, and the night of the NCAA championship game. Before this year, Thanksgiving night was also one of those days.
Anyhoo, considering nobody played yesterday, tonight, all 30 teams are playing. 15 game, 30 picks. Here we go...
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