Fantasy Updates

So, that draft that I wanted to steal Rose in round 7... well, somebody jumped the gun and took him in round 4. True, that's where he might *potentially* be worth at the end of the year. But why pay full price? That's crazy. Ah wells, better deals for me then.

Every year there's 2-3 mostly undrafted or lowly drafted players that end up exploding to become top 50 players in fantasy. For example, Mike James in '05, Al Jefferson and Barbosa in '06, and Grant Hill and Turkoglu in '07. You want to watch the early box scores and snap them up if you can.

It's not a great policy... but the way I usually approach it is, 1 good game pay attention, 2 good games in a row, pick up.

Most teams have only played one game so far, so here's some early movers you might want to pay attention to in the next couple nights:

Kelenna Azubuike (17 pts, 3 rebs, 2 asts, 3 stls)
Mario Chalmers (17 pts, 7 rebs, 8 asts, 2 threes)
Yi Jianlian (17 pts, 6 rebs, 1 stl, 2 blks, 2 threes)
Spencer Hawes (12 pts, 14 rebs, 6 blks, 1 three)

Important note: These guys are all STARTING. That's huge. It's all about games and minutes played in fantasy. You need the time to put up the stats. New time starters are good gambles. I personally have already picked up Kelena, Chalmers, and Yi in one or more of my leagues already and they're quickly disappearing in most leagues.

Also, if anybody is getting hit by injuries and dropping their stashed stars (Arenas, Ginobili, Ellis), I'd recommend taking a gamble on them too. Odds are no matter how well you drafted, there's a couple guys that are underwhelming you on your roster. (for me, it's been Felton, Nelson, and Conely. Decent PGs are hard to find late I guess). Feel free to play with those spots and make some moves!

Btw, I know the week is far from over, but I'm currently winning in all 3 of my Yahoo leagues and all 3 of my CBS leagues. More updates on those next Monday if I actually pull out all the wins. =)

Early Season Thoughts

So, I usually do a season prediction each year... and I totally missed it this year. I know I've already had 3 nights of the season to influence my picks, but I'm still gonna do it. You'll just have to trust that I'm making the same picks that I would have before the season started.

Eastern Conference -

1. Boston (no explanation needed. I bet they pick up a couple ring chasers late this year too)


2. Detroit (returns everybody, young guns Stucky and Maxiell will be 1 year better)


3. Cleveland (added Mo Williams. I also expect a big trade deadline splash with Wally's contract a la Kwame/Gasol last year)


4. Orlando (Dwight another year improved, added Pietrus, plus the rest of the Southeast is is pretty sad)


5. Philadelphia (Brand will make them compete, but they're still another allstar away from actually "contending")


6. Toronto (Jermaine O'neal helps out a lot, but I doubt he stays healthy. Their bench is also pretty bad)


7. Atlanta (8th last year, no reason they can't improve with another year of growth from all their youngins.)


8. Chicago (This team had the 3rd best record in the east 2 years ago, and they still have all the key players. Last year was a fluke and they got rewarded with Derrick Rose. I think returning to the playoffs is a minimum expectation)
   

Western Conference -

1. New Orleans (1 gm away from best record in the west last year. Paul and West will only improve and the Posey addition is surprisingly underated.)


2. Lakers (I hate to admit that they will be good. If I wasn't so biased, I'd probably put 'em first... but my hate won't let me ;-)


3. Houston (Injuries always a concern, but now with Artest, as long as they can keep 2 out of their big 3 on the court, they have a chance to beat almost any team in the league. If all 3 are healthy, watchout. Artest always has a honeymoon first year with his teams, so expect good things)


4. Utah (Could still use some better interior D to be true "contenders", I like the move of AK off the bench though. Same minutes for him, but he gets a bigger/happier role)


5. Phoenix (Amare/Nash/Shaq is still a formidable trio and now we actually have a bench. We'll prove D'Antoni was severly overated with a playoff series win over SA)


6. San Antonio (Steady as always. Ginobili out the first 4-6 weeks make dent their wins a bit, but they'll still be there come April)


7. Dallas (I don't consider them "contenders" anymore, but they're still good enough to make the playoffs. Kidd still has some left in the tank)


8. Portland (Roy/Aldridge/Outlaw all impove 1 year. Oden will improve their D tremendously and Fernandez is the real deal. He's gonna be our Spanish Ginobili.)
   

Other Awards -

• Western Finals = New Orleans over Houston (Yeah, Houston taking out LA in round 2, book it!)


• Eastern Finals = Boston over Cleveland


• Finals = Boston over New Orleans


• MVP = Lebron James


• Roookie of the Year = Greg Oden (see: I'm being honest, I'm gonna pretend he didn't get hurt in game 1)


• Coach of the Year = Maurice Cheeks (It's always the turnaround team, never the best teams)


• Most Improved = Jamal Crawford (beware the D'Antoni effect on stats)


• Sixth of the Year = Andre Kirilenko (hey, he's a former all-star! 5x5!)

Drafts, Drafts, Drafts

Over two weeks and no updates... yeah, I'm not doing too well on keeping this up to date at all. Now I have a whole lot more respect for the blogs (Truehoop, Ball Don't Lie) that I do read everyday. It's surprisingly a LOT of work to keep a blog updated frequently, let alone everyday. Props to any and all of you who are keeping your blogs updated.

Anyhoo... we did our keeper draft last weekend at my place. It's a 8 team league, 14-man roster, standard yahoo cats, 3 keepers. We managed to get 5 of us in person to draft, 2 others joined us online, and 1 manager auto-drafted. I made a little webpage that I updated live as we drafted so those unable to attend were able to follow along at home. Everything played out pretty traditionally. It would have been fun if we were able to trade keepers or draft picks like real GMs, but still all in all, I'd say it was a pretty successful first attempt at a live draft..

I'm pretty happy with my team. I reached a bit and took Oden with my second pick (#34 overall, including keepers), but I think it's worth it. This is a keeper league afterall and Oden is going to be one of my favorite players for years to come. I'm going to tentatively predict ROY honors and a rookie line of 13-10-2.5 blks on solid percentages for a playoff bound Blazers. And even if it doesn't pan out... I drafted Gilbert Arenas last year with my first 1-2 picks in ALL of my leagues last year and still took 2nd place in all of 'em ;-)

Couple of other observations... Ginobili got snatched 2 picks ahead of me in round 12 and Zach Randolph got snatched 1 pick ahead of me in round 14. I think both of those will end up being draft day steals. Here's my draft results:

1	(K)	Chris Paul
2	(K)	Danny Granger
3	(K)	David West
4	(31)	Andre Iguodala
5	(34)	Greg Oden
6	(46)	Chris Kaman
7	(49)	Jason Kidd
8	(62)	David Lee
9	(65)	Samuel Dalembert
10	(78)	John Salmons
11	(81)	Jason Terry
12	(94)	Tayshaun Prince
13	(97)	Al Thornton
14	(110)	Rudy Fernandez

So far I've done 2 Yahoo style drafts (1 in-person, 1 online public) and I have an "experts" league online scheduled for tomorrow. With Yahoo, I like to stick with my general Jazz/76ers strategy and gun for Deron, Brand, Boozer, Iggy in rounds 2-3 and Dalembert, Kirilenko, Andre Miller in late round 5 and after. In the mid rounds I like non Jazz /76ers like Kaman and David Lee. Ginobili is also a good steal starting around round 7. He'll be back before Christmas and unlike the long list of other injured stars (Ellis, Arenas), Manu should have no problem returning to form quickly. Keep in mind that Manu was a top 50 player last year (41 by Yahoo rank end of the season) and with the competitiveness of the west, the Spurs should still be playing their starters all the way until the last week of the season (unlike the likes of Chauncy, Pierce, and Allen). Late round flyers, I like to to gamble on Fernandez, Thorton, Thaddeous Young, and some random Knicks like Richardson or Robinson. The first 3 because they're up and coming young guys who can potentially have a big role in their team's rotation early on and Knicks, cuz well, D'Antoni style is very favorable to fantasy owners so why not take a chance of some Knickerbocker chuckers?

As for CBS leagues, I've done two as well, with my third and last one scheduled for tonight. A big difference is that there is no position flexibility at CBS. That means no FCs and no GFs, just Guards, Forwards, and Centers. And you can only draft a maximum amount of 5, 6, 2 at those positions, respectively, despite a 3 person "bench". So what I've found is that you actually DON'T want to draft centers too early. You only need to start 1 center and teams can ONLY draft 2 centers max. So you can usually snag a tier 2 center like Kaman, Camby, or Brad Miller WAAAYY late (rounds 7-8) when they're really worth round 4-5 production. You can always see one of those names stuck at the top of the queue late because everybody there ahead of you already took 2 centers and can't take anymore. Keep in mind that guys in rounds 4-5 generally produce 32-30 fantasy points while guys in rounds 7-8 generally produce 25-20 points. All things being equal, take the guard or forward instead and steal a cheap (but still PRODUCTIVE!) center later, and pocket that 5-7 fantasy points difference per week as a bonus! That just might be the edge to put you over the top.

Some other CBS notes... I haven't been able to yet, but I would like to draft Rose around round 7 tonight. He's been getting snatched in late 7, early 8 in most drafts that I see. All news out of preseason is that he has been tearing it up for the Bulls. It's a lot of conjecture, but if Rose can put up numbers equal to other "star" PGs in their rookie seasons (Paul, Francis, Marbury)... maybe we can project a stat line of 17 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assits, 2 steals, 3 turnovers. If he does that, that's worth 35 fantasy points, which is worth round 3 talent. Late rounds, I also like to go the injured players and Rodney Stuckey. With CBS's weekly rosters and stat averages, the bench almost becomes like roto where you literally just stash prospects for the whole season without any detriment to the team. Stuckey might come on slow, but by the end of the year I expect the Pistons to be coasting and Stucky to be playing starter's minutes. Last April when the Pistons coasted the last couple weeks, Stucky put up 14 pts, 3.3 reb, 4.2 asts, 1 stl, and 2 to in 27 minutes. That's 24.7 fantasy points. I'd expect slightly better numbers at the end of this season, 26+ points would make him a solid 7th rounder. Not bad for a last pick. You might be thinking that's too much worrying/conjecture now. But keep in mind, Paul Pierce (average pick #33.75) only put up 23.7 fantasy points (15.3 pts, 3 reb, 3.1 ast, 1 stl, 2.1 to) last April. So my last pick is going to be putting up similiar (maybe even slightly better) stats than your 3rd rounder come fantasy playoffs? No wonder I always do so well ;-) Remember folks, it's all about the games played and the schedule in fantasy. Don't shortchange yourself at draft time... think about the long game, and them trophies. =)

Another reason to love Gil

Hmm, I don't think anybody is reading this. How should I advertise this blog and get more viewers? Got a suggestion, let me know.

Anyway, I signed up for my first CBS leagues this week. Things are a bit different there compared to the Yahoo that I'm used to. First of all, lineups are weekly so there's no cheap add/dropping shenanigans which is nice. Stats are also averaged individually by games played by the player that week, which eliminates unfortunate injuries and irregular schedules, which is nice too. Only thing a bit weird is that it's a point based system and not straight up stat categories. So it breaks down like this:

Points: 1 pt
Rebounds: 1 pt
Assists: 2 pt
Steals: 1 pt
Blocks: 1 pt
Turnovers: -1 pt

So usual fantasy studs like Josh Smith and Shawn Marion fall a lot in value because steals and blocks are so much less valuable and 3 pointers are not tracked at all. There's no FG% or FT% in there either so there's no accounting for efficiency. The emphasis is on scoring and assists, which makes guards in general a lot more valuable. It's a bit different, but I'm sure I'll get the hang of it.

Anyhoo, this is just a quick post. More later, but for now, here's a funny from SLAM..

SLAM: What do you know about Sarah Palin?

Gil: That she’s a female Bush. Retarded. I’m not that into politics, I try to stay away until things get closer. But just from what I can tell she’s a moron. She can’t bullshit yet. As a politician she doesn’t know how to bullshit. She’ll just run around the question. “Who’s better, Kobe or LeBron?” “Well you know D.Wade, he’s been looking nice lately, so those are tough choices.” What the f*ck are you talking about?!

Fantasy Creds

Wow, a week and no posts, I really need to step this up... ;-)

Anyhoo, a large part of this blog is gonna be about fantasy basketball... draft, strategies, trades, matchups, etc. But why should you listen to me about fantasy bball? Well, I like to think I'm pretty good, esp. at head to head. My profiles on yahoo are DellQz01 and DellQz02... look 'em up if you can. I've played in 17 h2hs over the last 4 years in a mix of private, public, and winner's leagues. From standard rules to 15 stat categories to 14 managers to 16 man rosters, I've played under just about every kind of rules & settings possible. Last year I even played in a league where every week the winner of the h2h got to "steal" the best player from the losing team. Through it all, 17 leagues, and I have NEVER missed the playoffs. I've won first 8x (incl. 2 winner's leagues), second 4x, and third 3x. That means out of 17 leagues, I have only not finished in the medal twice. And this year I'm putting my money where my mouth is by taking it to the pay leagues at CBS Sportsline.

That said, I think it's never too early to start thinking about the playoffs. I think one of the most important stats in h2h that's rarely tracked is the number of games played per week. I mean, a crappy 10/5 guy off the FA wire who plays 4 games a week is arguably just as productive for your team as a stud 20/10 early round pick. And if you're getting your 20/10 four or five games a week, that's just dominating. So, in light of that, here's the # games played by each team in the most critical weeks, March 23rd-April 15th.

Team	Playoff W1	Playoff W2	Playoff W3	1+2	2+3	Total
Jazz	3	5	5	8	10	13
76ers	4	4	6	8	10	14
Magic	3	4	6	7	10	13
Hornets	3	4	6	7	10	13
Grizzlies	3	4	6	7	10	13
Kings	2	4	6	6	10	12
Knicks	4	4	5	8	9	13
Pistons	4	4	5	8	9	13
Heat	4	4	5	8	9	13
Lakers	4	4	5	8	9	13
Nets	3	4	5	7	9	12
Cavaliers	3	4	5	7	9	12
Bobcats	3	4	5	7	9	12
Mavericks	3	4	5	7	9	12
Warriors	3	4	5	7	9	12
Nuggets	4	4	4	8	8	12
Bucks	3	4	4	7	8	11
Spurs	4	3	6	7	9	13
Raptors	3	3	6	6	9	12
Blazers	3	3	6	6	9	12
Thunder	3	3	6	6	9	12
Suns	5	3	5	8	8	13
Hawks	4	3	5	7	8	12
Twolves	4	3	5	7	8	12
Clippers	4	3	5	7	8	12
Pacers	3	3	5	6	8	11
Rockets	2	3	5	5	8	10
Wizards	4	3	4	7	7	11
Celtics	4	2	5	6	7	11
Bulls	4	2	5	6	7	11

Now you can use that data however you want. A few things worth noting is that the Suns are the only team with 5 games in week 1 of the playoffs and the Jazz are the only team with 5 games in week 2. Also the Sixers have the best schedule through the entire playoffs with 4-4-6 games, respectively. Personally, I usually have a top 2 record going into the playoffs so I like to concentrate on week 2 the most so I'll definitely be watching out for Jazz and Sixers players in the draft. That's not to say that you should be drafting Okur or Igudala in the first round... but if a Jazz or Sixer player is available and it's a toss-up value wise or maybe even 1 round early, you should feel good about drafting a Jazz or Sixer.

If you're always just squeaking into the playoffs as a 5th or 6th seed, you might want to consider stocking your team with some Suns. 5 games a week is a lot and could potentially put you over the hump into the next week. Just think about it. You can probably draft Amare and Nash in rounds 1 and 2 relatively easily. Using last year's averages, they alone would get you 210/63/63 in 5 games in week 1 of the playoffs. Even if you had TWO Lebron James, the Cavs only play 3 games, and they'll *only* get you 180/47/43.

On the flip side, notice that the Rockets, Bulls, and Celtics have just 2 games in some of the fantasy weeks. The Rockets are probably the worst with just 2 games in week 1 and 3 games in week 2. Add to that all the injury history with Yao, McGrady, and Artest (55, 66, and 55 games played last year, respectively) and I will NOT be drafting a Rocket at all. I'd advise you to do the same as well.

It's important to note that this strategy only really works for your studs in the early rounds (assuming typical 12 team, 9 cat leagues, I'd consider everything 6 and higher, "early" rounds). You shouldn't really care about your l1th round, 3rd string guys playing 4-5 games a week, odds are, those are the spots you'll be add/dropping when the numbers get tight.

Stay tuned... I'll be recommending specific players in the coming posts.