Drafts, Drafts, Drafts

Over two weeks and no updates... yeah, I'm not doing too well on keeping this up to date at all. Now I have a whole lot more respect for the blogs (Truehoop, Ball Don't Lie) that I do read everyday. It's surprisingly a LOT of work to keep a blog updated frequently, let alone everyday. Props to any and all of you who are keeping your blogs updated.

Anyhoo... we did our keeper draft last weekend at my place. It's a 8 team league, 14-man roster, standard yahoo cats, 3 keepers. We managed to get 5 of us in person to draft, 2 others joined us online, and 1 manager auto-drafted. I made a little webpage that I updated live as we drafted so those unable to attend were able to follow along at home. Everything played out pretty traditionally. It would have been fun if we were able to trade keepers or draft picks like real GMs, but still all in all, I'd say it was a pretty successful first attempt at a live draft..

I'm pretty happy with my team. I reached a bit and took Oden with my second pick (#34 overall, including keepers), but I think it's worth it. This is a keeper league afterall and Oden is going to be one of my favorite players for years to come. I'm going to tentatively predict ROY honors and a rookie line of 13-10-2.5 blks on solid percentages for a playoff bound Blazers. And even if it doesn't pan out... I drafted Gilbert Arenas last year with my first 1-2 picks in ALL of my leagues last year and still took 2nd place in all of 'em ;-)

Couple of other observations... Ginobili got snatched 2 picks ahead of me in round 12 and Zach Randolph got snatched 1 pick ahead of me in round 14. I think both of those will end up being draft day steals. Here's my draft results:

1	(K)	Chris Paul
2	(K)	Danny Granger
3	(K)	David West
4	(31)	Andre Iguodala
5	(34)	Greg Oden
6	(46)	Chris Kaman
7	(49)	Jason Kidd
8	(62)	David Lee
9	(65)	Samuel Dalembert
10	(78)	John Salmons
11	(81)	Jason Terry
12	(94)	Tayshaun Prince
13	(97)	Al Thornton
14	(110)	Rudy Fernandez

So far I've done 2 Yahoo style drafts (1 in-person, 1 online public) and I have an "experts" league online scheduled for tomorrow. With Yahoo, I like to stick with my general Jazz/76ers strategy and gun for Deron, Brand, Boozer, Iggy in rounds 2-3 and Dalembert, Kirilenko, Andre Miller in late round 5 and after. In the mid rounds I like non Jazz /76ers like Kaman and David Lee. Ginobili is also a good steal starting around round 7. He'll be back before Christmas and unlike the long list of other injured stars (Ellis, Arenas), Manu should have no problem returning to form quickly. Keep in mind that Manu was a top 50 player last year (41 by Yahoo rank end of the season) and with the competitiveness of the west, the Spurs should still be playing their starters all the way until the last week of the season (unlike the likes of Chauncy, Pierce, and Allen). Late round flyers, I like to to gamble on Fernandez, Thorton, Thaddeous Young, and some random Knicks like Richardson or Robinson. The first 3 because they're up and coming young guys who can potentially have a big role in their team's rotation early on and Knicks, cuz well, D'Antoni style is very favorable to fantasy owners so why not take a chance of some Knickerbocker chuckers?

As for CBS leagues, I've done two as well, with my third and last one scheduled for tonight. A big difference is that there is no position flexibility at CBS. That means no FCs and no GFs, just Guards, Forwards, and Centers. And you can only draft a maximum amount of 5, 6, 2 at those positions, respectively, despite a 3 person "bench". So what I've found is that you actually DON'T want to draft centers too early. You only need to start 1 center and teams can ONLY draft 2 centers max. So you can usually snag a tier 2 center like Kaman, Camby, or Brad Miller WAAAYY late (rounds 7-8) when they're really worth round 4-5 production. You can always see one of those names stuck at the top of the queue late because everybody there ahead of you already took 2 centers and can't take anymore. Keep in mind that guys in rounds 4-5 generally produce 32-30 fantasy points while guys in rounds 7-8 generally produce 25-20 points. All things being equal, take the guard or forward instead and steal a cheap (but still PRODUCTIVE!) center later, and pocket that 5-7 fantasy points difference per week as a bonus! That just might be the edge to put you over the top.

Some other CBS notes... I haven't been able to yet, but I would like to draft Rose around round 7 tonight. He's been getting snatched in late 7, early 8 in most drafts that I see. All news out of preseason is that he has been tearing it up for the Bulls. It's a lot of conjecture, but if Rose can put up numbers equal to other "star" PGs in their rookie seasons (Paul, Francis, Marbury)... maybe we can project a stat line of 17 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assits, 2 steals, 3 turnovers. If he does that, that's worth 35 fantasy points, which is worth round 3 talent. Late rounds, I also like to go the injured players and Rodney Stuckey. With CBS's weekly rosters and stat averages, the bench almost becomes like roto where you literally just stash prospects for the whole season without any detriment to the team. Stuckey might come on slow, but by the end of the year I expect the Pistons to be coasting and Stucky to be playing starter's minutes. Last April when the Pistons coasted the last couple weeks, Stucky put up 14 pts, 3.3 reb, 4.2 asts, 1 stl, and 2 to in 27 minutes. That's 24.7 fantasy points. I'd expect slightly better numbers at the end of this season, 26+ points would make him a solid 7th rounder. Not bad for a last pick. You might be thinking that's too much worrying/conjecture now. But keep in mind, Paul Pierce (average pick #33.75) only put up 23.7 fantasy points (15.3 pts, 3 reb, 3.1 ast, 1 stl, 2.1 to) last April. So my last pick is going to be putting up similiar (maybe even slightly better) stats than your 3rd rounder come fantasy playoffs? No wonder I always do so well ;-) Remember folks, it's all about the games played and the schedule in fantasy. Don't shortchange yourself at draft time... think about the long game, and them trophies. =)