Draft Picks... Part 1

Right... so who should you draft and when, that's the big question. In general, if you just follow Yahoo's O-Rank and Rank, you'll be *okay*. If the difference between O-Rank and Rank are fairly even, then it's a "safe pick". What you want to watch out for are the large discrepancies, either plus or minus. Here I'll list some of the prominent ones that caught my eye. Players are numbered by their O-Rank.

12) Kevin Garnett - Last year rank 41. Garnett himself says that he's 80-90% healthy but getting better everyday. Early reviews out of training camp shows that he has to wear a knee brace and is showing obvious difficultly making quick lateral movements. He's also 33 and entering his 15th season, personally I'd pass on him in the draft. He's gonna be a lot closer to top 50 than top 12.

16) Caron Butler - Last year rank 36. Injury prone, Butler hasn't played 70 games in the last 3 seasons. Add in the return of Gilbert Arenas (shots taken) and Mike Miller off the WAS bench (minutes played), and at best Butler gives you a repeat performance of last year... which is still 20 spots lower than he's ranked. Pass.

21) Jose Calderon - Last year rank 28. Though not that big of difference between 21 and 28, I think Jose's numbers are gonna drop this year. He now has a legitimate backup that can potentially steal some minutes in Jarret Jack and a new point-forward teammate that can steal his assist in Turkoglu. If he's still there at the end of round 3, fine, pick up Calderon. But don't waste that round 2 pick on hims!

23) Jason Kidd - Last year rank 9. Old reliable. Kidd might have lost a step on the court, but he's still a fantasy monster and surprisingly sturdy with 80+ games played each of the last 3 seasons. His ast numbers dipped a bit last year from 9.5 to 8.7, but with the addition of Marion as a finisher... I think Kidd can inch back towards 10 apg again. He's a solid pick at 23. I'd definately take him there.

30) Kevin Martin - Last year rank 100. One of the most efficient offensive players in the game, but can you really count on him being there? 61 and 51 games played in the past two seasons. I say pass.

31) Gilbert Arenas - Last year rank 404. Early reports say his knees are alright. And now reports say he had a dislocated finger a few weeks ago and that it might be a lingering issue throughout the season. He's only 27 and when he's on, Gil's a top 10 player in the league. However, he's only played 15 games total in the last 2 years, which is obviously terrible. All that said, you *should* avoid him. 'Cept this is the first and best example of take everything I say with a grain of salt because even I ignored my own advice and took him in round 3 of my first draft. Guess I'm just a glutton for punishment ;-) If you remember, I also took Gil in 3 out of 3 leagues back in 2007 when he only played 13 games. =(

35) Troy Murphy - Last year rank 15. Murphey is a steal anywhere at 35. With any luck, you're nabbing him a bit late in early round 4. A double-double FC with two 3s is definately solid in late round 3 and a steal for round 4. He does tend to miss 15-20 games a year though, so hopefully it's not when you need him the most.

36) Rashard Lewis - Last year rank 17. Suspended first 10 games of the season for steroid use. That'll make him unavailable for your first 3 weeks... if you can deal with that, he's a good pick in rounds 3-4 considering he was a top 20 guy last year.

37) Elton Brand - Last year rank 272. Early reports from training camp say he's not showing any ill effects from his shoulder surgery last year. However even before he was injured last year, Brand was having problems meshing with the 76ers full court offense. How will he fair this year? I say let someone else take that gamble, pass.

40) LeMarcus Aldridge - Last year rank 27. I admit I have a bit of a pro-bias for Portland players... but Aldridge is the real deal. Even last year, he was already better than his current top 40 rank. He's only 24 and this is only his 4th season in the league, just from growth/experience, I'd expect him to at least improve modestly over last year. And if Oden pans out at all... that's just less attention from the opposing bigs and more room for Aldridge to operate. Pick him up!

41) Baron Davis - Last year rank 141. Last year was a horrible year statistically for Baron (.370 FG%, really?!?). But even discounting the stats, Baron is injury prone, with only one 70+ game season in the past 8 years. They've shipped out the bad-juju in Zach Randolph and they got an exciting #1 rookie in Blake Griffin... BUT they're still the Clippers. Bad things tend to happen, even IF the player is really trying. I say pass.

47) Marcus Camby - Last year rank 42. The glassman. He had one healthy season two years ago, don't count on that happening again. Add to that a #1 pick (Griffin) waiting on the bench to steal his minutes and I'd say let someone else take the risk on Camby.

48) David Lee - Last year rank 18. The D'Antoni effect is a godsend for contract players and fantasy managers. Lee averaged an elite 16/11 last year and I see no reason why he can't offer a repeat performance. Rookie Jordan Hill won't really threaten for minutes right away and even if D'Antoni goes small with lots of wings... I expect Lee to still stay in the game a center to clean up the boards. For a late 4th rounder, Lee's a steal.

Alrighty... that gets us to the top 50 players. More to come soon!