Fantasy Tip Off 2009

YAY! Fantasy basketball season is finally upon us. You all know my creds... but if not, here's a reminder... just add two more 1st place and another 3rd place finish on those totals for 2008 ;-)

Anyhoo, I usually like to start by emphasizing the NBA schedules. It should be obvious that 1-2 extra games by your superstar during a crucial fantasy playoff week can be a huge difference maker. Sure, your superstar can get hurt, his team can be tanking/resting due to standings, hell, he can even can traded mid-season. We can't control those variables, so we just have to make due with what we do know now. That said, here's the breakdown on games played for each team during the crucial fantasy playoff weeks.



Schedules seemed a lot more important last year, when there was a clear winner and loser in games played (14 by PHI and 10 by the HOU). This year, the schedule is a lot more even and a bit less exciting. There's 6 teams with 14 games played, no teams with 10, and 3 teams with 11 games. Also, no teams with 5 or 2 games in Playoff Week 2 (the most important week imho). The Jazz do have 5 games in Playoff Week 1, so if you usually find yourself sneaking into the playoffs, you might want to slot D-Will or Okur a bit higher (the Boozer/Millsap situation is a crapshoot, I'd avoid that altogether if I were you). Personally, Week 1 games don't really matter to me, cuz I count on getting a top 2 record for the regular season and earning a bye for Week 1, cuz I'm awesome ;-)

Looking over the schedule the only teams I'd value a bit more would be the Rockets, Wizards, and Thunder. The only teams I'd value a bit less would be Cavs, Hornets, and Blazers... though the difference is really so small this year, that the edge you gain in schedule evaluation might not be worth the trouble of drafting a Caron Butler or passing a LeMarcus Aldridge. And if you have a shot at Lebron James or Chris Paul, you draft them, EVERY TIME!

Okay, so my "schedule" advice probably won't be very helpful this year... so here's some extra stuff for this post. Yahoo now has a pretty convenient feature showing the average pick # of each player by all of Yahoo's leagues. That will give you a pretty good idea of when a player will probably get taken. Depending on where you are in the draft order... it can get confusing when to take the player though. So here's a couple of simple spreadsheets for you to download... so you know exactly what pick # is in what round. Say for example, you were dead set on nabbing Black Griffin (avg. 67.4). If you were 6th or later in draft order, you can afford to take in round 6. If you were 5 or higher in draft order though, you gotta take him in round 5, cuz chances are, he won't make it back to you in round 6.

Another way to use the sheet is to scout your potential team ahead of time. If you know your draft position (either by logging in early to an online draft or in a offline draft), you can see what players will *probably* be available at each of your picks and you can plan accordingly. Let's say you're top 3 in draft order and you're taking guards early on... make sure there's centers you like in the 70s or 90s based on avg. pick. Don't just assume a Scola or Hawes will be available late... both of them are averaging in the late 80s, if you're top 3 in draft order... you'll have to reach up for them by round 7... else by round 8-9 you're gonna get stuck with chafe like J-O or Brad Miller. During the draft, you can also look up potential avg. picks and plug in some players you'd like at each of your slots on the spreadsheet... it'll give you something to do while waiting for your next pick and maybe let you craft a better team.

Alrighty... that's all I got for now. Check in later this week when I'll have give you some concrete names to watch out for (or avoid). And also a walkthrough of my first draft this season.