Fantasy Tip Off 2009

YAY! Fantasy basketball season is finally upon us. You all know my creds... but if not, here's a reminder... just add two more 1st place and another 3rd place finish on those totals for 2008 ;-)

Anyhoo, I usually like to start by emphasizing the NBA schedules. It should be obvious that 1-2 extra games by your superstar during a crucial fantasy playoff week can be a huge difference maker. Sure, your superstar can get hurt, his team can be tanking/resting due to standings, hell, he can even can traded mid-season. We can't control those variables, so we just have to make due with what we do know now. That said, here's the breakdown on games played for each team during the crucial fantasy playoff weeks.



Schedules seemed a lot more important last year, when there was a clear winner and loser in games played (14 by PHI and 10 by the HOU). This year, the schedule is a lot more even and a bit less exciting. There's 6 teams with 14 games played, no teams with 10, and 3 teams with 11 games. Also, no teams with 5 or 2 games in Playoff Week 2 (the most important week imho). The Jazz do have 5 games in Playoff Week 1, so if you usually find yourself sneaking into the playoffs, you might want to slot D-Will or Okur a bit higher (the Boozer/Millsap situation is a crapshoot, I'd avoid that altogether if I were you). Personally, Week 1 games don't really matter to me, cuz I count on getting a top 2 record for the regular season and earning a bye for Week 1, cuz I'm awesome ;-)

Looking over the schedule the only teams I'd value a bit more would be the Rockets, Wizards, and Thunder. The only teams I'd value a bit less would be Cavs, Hornets, and Blazers... though the difference is really so small this year, that the edge you gain in schedule evaluation might not be worth the trouble of drafting a Caron Butler or passing a LeMarcus Aldridge. And if you have a shot at Lebron James or Chris Paul, you draft them, EVERY TIME!

Okay, so my "schedule" advice probably won't be very helpful this year... so here's some extra stuff for this post. Yahoo now has a pretty convenient feature showing the average pick # of each player by all of Yahoo's leagues. That will give you a pretty good idea of when a player will probably get taken. Depending on where you are in the draft order... it can get confusing when to take the player though. So here's a couple of simple spreadsheets for you to download... so you know exactly what pick # is in what round. Say for example, you were dead set on nabbing Black Griffin (avg. 67.4). If you were 6th or later in draft order, you can afford to take in round 6. If you were 5 or higher in draft order though, you gotta take him in round 5, cuz chances are, he won't make it back to you in round 6.

Another way to use the sheet is to scout your potential team ahead of time. If you know your draft position (either by logging in early to an online draft or in a offline draft), you can see what players will *probably* be available at each of your picks and you can plan accordingly. Let's say you're top 3 in draft order and you're taking guards early on... make sure there's centers you like in the 70s or 90s based on avg. pick. Don't just assume a Scola or Hawes will be available late... both of them are averaging in the late 80s, if you're top 3 in draft order... you'll have to reach up for them by round 7... else by round 8-9 you're gonna get stuck with chafe like J-O or Brad Miller. During the draft, you can also look up potential avg. picks and plug in some players you'd like at each of your slots on the spreadsheet... it'll give you something to do while waiting for your next pick and maybe let you craft a better team.

Alrighty... that's all I got for now. Check in later this week when I'll have give you some concrete names to watch out for (or avoid). And also a walkthrough of my first draft this season.

Near, far, wherever you are...

LOL, new antics by Ron Artest. I was always high on Ron Artest... it sucks that he's a Laker now so I can't really root for him. But this is just pure awesome and easily up there with any of the crazy fan things Shaq has done. I can't paraphrase it to do it justice... so here's Artest's own words about what happened, courtesy of Sports Radio Interviews. And oh yeah, videos at the bottom too!

What happened was I had a contest; all LA fans get access to Ron Artest. So, what I did, I gave my number out and my Twitter out, so I speak directly to my fans and I give contests - I invite people places, I go to people’s houses. So, this one contest, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, I need something to do. Whoever comes up with the most interesting thing to do, I will come and visit you anywhere you’re at. Some people asked me to be their best man, come play basketball, a bunch of other things. The one thing that was interesting was the Filipino food; this whole family asked me to come to their house and eat Filipino food, and I have a Filipino son, half-black, half-Filipino. And, I knew that the Filipinos, they love karaoke, some Vietnamese people, a couple other cultures, they love to do karaoke. So, what I didn’t think was they would ask me to do karaoke. So, the first night, we went over, we had dinner, we laughed, I got outta there. It was the third day, me and my friends was hungry, so we said, ‘Hey, what about calling the Filipino family again and eat some more dinner, some more free dinner.’ So, we go over there, eat some free dinner, by the end of the night, they wanted to do karaoke. I’m like, ‘I’m not doing karaoke.’ The mom said, ‘No, Ron. You have to do karaoke, please do karaoke.’ I said, ‘Ah, are you serious?’ Four songs passed and I said, ‘Nah, I’m not doing this karaoke.’ She asked me again, I respected her, I did the karaoke, I did Celine Dion, and it was just classic, classic footage. I was gonna save it for my reality show but I just thought the fans probably wanna see it now. I actually did a lot of crazy things in a house that night that I had never been in. I was eating dinner, laughing at one of my friends, and I had some gas… So, now, I’m laughing at my friend, I’m laughing so hard at the dinner table, and I just let one loose: PRRAAHAHAAHAHAHAH. Real loud! Real loud, Mr. Carmichael. I’m not releasing that footage. (Host: Is there footage somewhere?) There’s footage, I might let people see it one day, it was funny. So, tomorrow I’m gonna go see a Mexican family and I’m gonna go eat some Mexican food.”

Rubio not coming to the NBA

Well, at least not for a while. The latest news is that Rubio has just signed a 6 year contract with Regal Barcelona (his previous Euro team was DKV Joventut). No idea how much he's getting paid per year, but Barcelona paid ~$3.7 million Euros ($5.3 million U.S.) for his buyout from Joventut. There's supposedly an affordable buyout in 2011... so that's the most likely time for Rubio to come over. I guess Rubio and Minnesota fans will just have to wait two more years. =( The link is in Spanish but that's the gist of it.

http://www.marca.com/2009/08/26/baloncesto/acb/1251278631.html

You know... this situation probably could have all been avoided by some better planning by NBA and Minnesota office folks. Rubio had said he was willing to come to the NBA this year if he was a top 3 pick, but instead, he fell to 5th. Since NBA rookie contracts are locked into a sliding scale, the difference between being a 3rd pick or a 5th pick is about ~$3 million U.S. FWIW, the difference between 4th and 5th pick is about $1.5 mil.

IMO, at the least, OKC or SAC should have explored a draft swap with MIN. James Harden (OKC) and Tyreke Evans (SAC) would have still been available at the 5th pick. I mean, if OKC took Rubio at 3, SAC would still take Evans at 4. I don't think SAC would have taken Harden (a SG) considering their "franchise" player, Kevin Martin, is a SG too. And obvious if SAC took Rubio at 4, Evans would be available at 5. Now, why would the other teams want to help MIN out like this with a pick swap? Cuz they get to pay their rookie a bit less... that's cash savings. $3 mil for OKC or $1.5 for SAC if they had made the trade. MIN probably would have thrown in a 2nd rounder or too just to sweeten the deal. But instead... now we all have to wait for Rubio. =(

And you know what... even when Rubio comes in two years... the situation in Minn. is just gonna be f*cked. I mean, suppose their 6th pick this year, 6' PG, Jonny Flynn turns out to be a decent PG in this league. Then what? And at least to start in 2011, Flynn will *look* better than Rubio, considering he'd have 2 years of the NBA grind under his belt and 2 years with the Minn. system and chemistry with the other players.

You can't just demote him to the bench for Rubio. Not after he's earned the starting job and played in front of Minn. fans for two years. That'd be a slap in the face. If you deal him, it's gonna be pennies on the dollar considering Flynn will still be on his rookie deal and everybody in the league knows your team is in a quandary. You can probably start with Rubio off the bench... but how long is that gonna last before Rubio starts wanting more minutes. Half a season, if that? In Rubio's eyes, he's gonna be a legit star in Europe by then and he's paying money out of his own pocket to come to the NBA... and that's not to be a backup PG. This situation is just gonna get messier and messier. Good job Khan!

And yeah, I know I haven't been updating much at all this summer. Things will pick up in Oct. once we're in fantasy basketball season. I got a few good ideas in my head so I check back then!

Starbury... Keeping it Real

Random post... but apparently Marbury is streaming LIVE right now, talking about everything. If he's still on whenever you read this... I guarantee it's better than anything on TV right now.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/have-at-it

I really should be a GM

So, apparently the Orlando Magic have decided to match Dallas's offer for Marcin Gortat. I'm pretty sure the offer was for the full MLE so probably ~$5.5 million. While I think the Polish Hammer is totally worth that in a vacuum, Orlando do already have Dwight. $5.5 mil is a whole a lot of money for 12 min. a night from your backup center. And consider the fact that the Magic also just signed Brandon Bass to a 4 year, $18 mil deal... that's $10 mil between Gortat and Bass. Two role players at best for the Magic.

Instead of those two deals, why not just cough up the extra million and keep Turkoglu instead? At first most thought the Magic wouldn't keep Turk because of salary and tax implications but they practically spent the same amount on Bass and Gortat combined. I would think a line up of Nelson/Carter/Turkoglu/Lewis/Howard is a whole lot scarier than Nelson/Carter/Lewis/Bass/Howard... with Gortat being like 9th man off the bench. (anybody want to take a bet that Pietrus, Riddick, and Anderson will all avg. more minutes in an ORL uni than Gortat?) I mean that first lineup would rival the Lakers in firepower and having four 3 point bombers around Dwight is a whole better than 3. Now, I'm sure the Magic will be fine... but the thing is, if they were willing to spend this much all along, they could have been SOOO much better.

On other GMing news around the league, apparently one of the richest owners in sports (ex-Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen) is playing hardball with Brandon Roy's extension. Roy thinks he deserves a max 5 year deal, but Portland is only offering a 4 year deal (though still maxed). Really? I don't even understand why this is an issue. Yeah, yeah, it's not my money... but Roy has shown that he's an elite player and easily top 10-15 in the entire league. How do you NOT max him? And to be petty over one year? IMHO, if your young superstar WANTS to stay with you for another year, that's a GOOD thing. Who doesn't think Cleveland or Miami would like to worry about James' or Wade's impending free agency until the summer of 2011? Now, I'm sure this is all just posturing by the Portland front office and eventually Roy will get his deal. But if that's true... why bother with these number games at all? It's just building unnecessary animosity between the player, organization, and fans.

And on a similar note... that 4 year number rears its ugly head again in the Millsap situation. To catch up... Portland offered Paul Millsap a 4 year, $32 million deal last Friday. It averages out to $8 mil a year, but is front loaded, so Millsap will get about ~$11 million in the first year with descending amounts in the next 3 years. While that it certainly a large offer it is by no mean unfair and not nearly "toxic" enough to persuade the Jazz not to match. Portland could have made it much more difficult for the Jazz by raising the average salary to $9-10 mil (Portland has the cap space after all) and/or adding a 5th year... which also allows them to "front-load" even more money.

IMHO, the Jazz will match and try to deal Boozer. If they can't get anything of value for Boozer... worst case they can do a straight salary dump. He's only due 1 year left at $12 mil for next season anyways. They were entirely prepared to just let Boozer walk earlier this summer so if I don't think the Jazz brass would be too upset if they had to just give him away. DET, OKC, and MEM are all still under the cap. No need for any teams to give up any picks or other young talents. Just Boozer for straight dump or maybe the other teams can even send back a small $3-4 mil unwanted contract to Utah (Kwame, Wilkins, etc.) to offset Boozer's 1 year salary a bit. Would all three say really "no" to Boozer if all they had to do was pay him for 1 year? I doubt it.

The Spanish Armada is Sinking

So the newest rumor via ESPN is that Rudy Fernandez is outraged by the courtship of Turkoglu by the Blazers and that Rudy is on the verge of demanding a trade or going back to Europe.

For those not in the know... the previous latest rumor is that Portland is about to offer Turkoglu a 5 year / $50 million dollar deal. As for why Rudy is upset... basically he sees Turk's addition as a threat to his role on the team and I don't blame him at all. They both serve a similar purpose in terms of ball handling and shooting 3s. Even though Rudy averaged the 5th most minutes of any Blazer at 25 mpg last year, it's only natural to expect an increase in minutes from your rookie year. But if you add Turk's 30-32 minutes a game to Portland's already tight rotation, where are the minutes going to come from? That's not even considering the returning Martell Webster who will want 20+ minutes as well.

It's also worth noting that most Blazer fans reaction has been negative so far (judging from forum posts over at RealGM) calling him selfish and a whiner. It's really sad/shocking how fast some fans turn on their players. I mean, Rudy was a HUGE fan favorite last year among Blazer fans. And Turk at $10 million for 5 years isn't even that good of a deal. Those Blazer fans are gonna be kicking themselves in a couple years when Rudy is blowing up like an all-star on another team (on a rookie contract!) while they're stuck with mediocre Turkoglu at $10 mil per.

The thing is, Rudy probably sees himself as a starter quality player in this league and I completely agree with him. If the Blazers want him off the bench then he needs to at least get the Ginobili/Terry treatment. That means 27-28 minutes a night and be in the game in clutch moments. That's a difficult task with Roy and Turk ahead and Outlaw next to him on the depth chart.

I really do hope Rudy's situation works out and he stays a Blazer. IMHO, Portland GM Kevin Pritchard REALLY needs to condense that lineup. If he's so inclined to sign Turk, then go ahead, but ask Rudy to reserve judgment until mid-summer. By then, he needs to jettison Webster, Outlaw, and probably Batum as well for low usage guys. Straight salary dump if absolutely necessary. If not... trade him to Minnesota! Maybe that way we can see Rubio this year as well (new Spanish Connection).

Dolla Dolla Bills, Y'All

Long time no post... but I just read this today and had to share. SI just published their top 50 highest paid American athletes for the year. No surprise, Tiger Woods is way ahead of the pack at $99 million for last year and that's actually down from the previous year. First basketball player is James at $42 mil, then Shaq, Garnett, Kobe, Iverson, yada, yada. That's all expected. The sad/funny part comes at #30 and 31... Rashard Lewis and Shawn Marion. LOL... that's a shammockery of the NBA salary system and economic model if there ever was one. I mean, sure lots of the people on the list are making way more than they deserve right now (i.e. Shaq & AI), but at least they were worth that much at some point of their contracts. But Lewis and Marion? A couple of third options on winning teams? And the fact that this is just the 2nd year of Rashard's 6 year, $118 million dollar deal means that we'll be seeing his name on this list for years to come.

You can check out the list yourself here...

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/more/specials/fortunate50/2009/index.html