I'll admit that I suck at real-world NBA predictions. 3/7 of my all time predictions went bust in the very first year and my preseason rankings for the 2008-09 season was just plain terrible. That's why I've refrained from making any rankings/predictions for this season. No need to make more excuses to laugh at myself at season's end, right?
But at least I know my fantasy stuff. What did I say about Martin and Redd being injury prone? Well, Redd is already out at least two weeks with a sprained knee and Martin just got diagnosed with a hairline fracture in his wrist (no word yet on how much time or if any he will miss). Also, I also told you to avoid Calderon, Brand, and Baron Davis... and that all turned out to be sound advice. I mean, last year was a year to forget for B Diddy and as impossible as it seems, he's actually playing WORSE so far this year... just 11 points on 33% shooting and one 3PTMs a game. Brand has been worse as well, averaging just 12/8 on 46% shooting. That's stats from your last guy, not somebody you spent a 5th round pick on.
Of course, I've wiffed a picked or two too. Most notably on Anthony Randolph. I had pretty high expectations on AR and happily used a 6th and a 7th round pick in two different drafts for him. To say that he's been underwhelming is an understatement, averaging just 8 pts and 4.7 rebs on 35% shooting without even a full block or steal to add to his line. A lot of the blame goes to Nellie though. I mean, AR is a young guy and inconsistent and you want to bring him along slowly, I get that. So Nellie starts Turiaf and lets Randolph come off the bench. That's understanable. But when Turiaf goes out with a sprained knee, you'd think Randolph would be in line for the those minutes. 'Cept instead Nellie goes and starts Stephen Jackson at PF and slots Randolph behind MIKKI FRIGGIN MOORE on the depth chart. 7 minutes is all AR got last night. WTF?!?! That is seriously messed up. Nellie just seems crazier and crazier by the game. He needs 22 more games to pass Lenny Wilkins for all-time winningest coach. What are the odds the Warriors can get that by all-star break and Nellie just up and quits when he gets the record?
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Monday, November 2, 2009
Conspiracy Theories
In case you didn't know, Tim Donaghy is the disgraced former NBA ref that was caught betting on NBA games (including those that he reffed). He went to jail, did his time, got out, broke his probation, and is now back in jail. During his first jail stint... Donaghy wrote a tell-all book, "Blowing the Whistle", about all the crookedness/craziness in the NBA. The book was picked up by Triumph Books, which has since canceled the printing and now Donaghy is looking for new publishers. In typical internet fashion, excerpts are now available online. Of course, the validity/trustworthiness of Donaghy's word is debatable... but still, it's some fascinating/shocking stuff. Full excerpts are available at deadspin.com though my personal favs are quoted below...
If you have the time, I'd highly recommend reading the full link above, there's a LOT more quotes and examples there. Pretty crazy stuff imho, though surprisingly not all that shocking or unbelievable from a fan's perspective. I really wish the NBA would institute a challenge-like system a la the NFL. Coaches can ask for video review of any calls, if the coach is right, the call is reversed. If the coach is wrong, the team is charged a full timeout (to cut down on frivolous challenges). And added benefit is that we'd have a public record for the number/frequency of reversed calls per ref, for greater accountability.
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Oh and fantasy update... I hope you picked up Danillo Gallinari when I recommended him last week, cuz odds are he's gone by now and I think he's gonna be the pickup of the year. He's averaging SIX 3PTM over his last 3 games... 80% of his FGA are from behind the arc (12/15) and he's just been promoted to the NY starting lineup. That's insane!
Similar insanity goes out to Channing Frye, who's averaging 4.3 3PTMs and 19.7 through 3 games. Actually everybody on the Suns ('cept Amare) are playing out of their minds right now. 35 year old SF Grant Hill is averaging 20/10 through 3 games and Nash is back to MVP form, posting 18/3/14. I expect them to cool off somewhat, but it's nice to see the old run and gun Suns back to form.
Also Chris Douglas Roberts finally had a breakout game. Your choice whether to nab him now or wait for one more good performance. With Devin Harris out for 2 weeks, I think CDR can get a lot more looks in their offense. Having 3 position eligibility is nice too. For another temp pickup, you can check out Charlie Bell, who'll be starting for Redd for the next 2 weeks.
It's almost tough sometimes cuz there's lots of options out there on the FA list but you just don't have the roster space to make the move. If you can swing some 2-1 deals to upgrade your top talents, DO IT. Even if you're slightly overpaying... because the stuff on the wire (esp. early in the season) is always good. If you can't free that spot though, sometimes you have to consider your team's needs/strengths when you're dealing with the last spots your roster instead of just the best/better player available.
Personally I've had to let someone else take Frye in a league just because I didn't have anybody I was willing to drop. And I had to drop Tyreke Evans to take Brandon Jennings in another league. In Frye's case, my team was already really strong in 3s so I'd rather keep a true big like Thompson or Speights instead of picking up Frye to pad a stat I'd carry anyways.
We had another variation of this gag simply referred to as the "first foul of the game" bet. While still in the locker room before tip-off, we would make a wager on which of us would call the game's first foul. [...] There were occasions when we would hold back for two or three minutes — an eternity in an NBA game — before blowing the whistle. It didn't matter if bodies were flying all over the place; no fouls were called because no one wanted to lose the bet.
We played this little game during the regular season and summer league. After a game, all three refs would gather around the VCR and watch a replay of the game. Early in the contest, the announcers would say, "Holy cow! They're really letting them play tonight!" If they only knew...
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You would think that the NBA would love a guy who plays such great defense. Think again! Star stoppers hurt the promotion of marquee players. [...]
If a player of Kobe's stature collides with the likes of Raja Bell, the call will almost always go for Kobe and against Bell. As part of our ongoing training and game preparation, NBA referees regularly receive game-action video tape from the league office. Over the years, I have reviewed many recorded hours of video involving Raja Bell. The footage I analyzed usually illustrated fouls being called against Bell, rarely for him. The message was subtle but clear — call fouls against the star stopper because he's hurting the game.
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From my earliest involvement with Bavetta, I learned that he likes to keep games close, and that when a team gets down by double-digit points, he helps the players save face. He accomplishes this act of mercy by quietly, and frequently, blowing the whistle on the team that's having the better night. Team fouls suddenly become one-sided between the contestants, and the score begins to tighten up. That's the way Dick Bavetta referees a game — and everyone in the league knew it.
[...] Is the conscious act of helping a team crawl back into a contest "cheating"? The credo of referees from high school to the NBA is "call them like you see them." Of course, that's a lot different than purposely calling more fouls against one team as opposed to another. Did Bavetta have a hidden agenda? Or was he the ultimate company man, making sure the NBA and its fans got a competitive game most times he was on the court?
If you have the time, I'd highly recommend reading the full link above, there's a LOT more quotes and examples there. Pretty crazy stuff imho, though surprisingly not all that shocking or unbelievable from a fan's perspective. I really wish the NBA would institute a challenge-like system a la the NFL. Coaches can ask for video review of any calls, if the coach is right, the call is reversed. If the coach is wrong, the team is charged a full timeout (to cut down on frivolous challenges). And added benefit is that we'd have a public record for the number/frequency of reversed calls per ref, for greater accountability.
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Oh and fantasy update... I hope you picked up Danillo Gallinari when I recommended him last week, cuz odds are he's gone by now and I think he's gonna be the pickup of the year. He's averaging SIX 3PTM over his last 3 games... 80% of his FGA are from behind the arc (12/15) and he's just been promoted to the NY starting lineup. That's insane!
Similar insanity goes out to Channing Frye, who's averaging 4.3 3PTMs and 19.7 through 3 games. Actually everybody on the Suns ('cept Amare) are playing out of their minds right now. 35 year old SF Grant Hill is averaging 20/10 through 3 games and Nash is back to MVP form, posting 18/3/14. I expect them to cool off somewhat, but it's nice to see the old run and gun Suns back to form.
Also Chris Douglas Roberts finally had a breakout game. Your choice whether to nab him now or wait for one more good performance. With Devin Harris out for 2 weeks, I think CDR can get a lot more looks in their offense. Having 3 position eligibility is nice too. For another temp pickup, you can check out Charlie Bell, who'll be starting for Redd for the next 2 weeks.
It's almost tough sometimes cuz there's lots of options out there on the FA list but you just don't have the roster space to make the move. If you can swing some 2-1 deals to upgrade your top talents, DO IT. Even if you're slightly overpaying... because the stuff on the wire (esp. early in the season) is always good. If you can't free that spot though, sometimes you have to consider your team's needs/strengths when you're dealing with the last spots your roster instead of just the best/better player available.
Personally I've had to let someone else take Frye in a league just because I didn't have anybody I was willing to drop. And I had to drop Tyreke Evans to take Brandon Jennings in another league. In Frye's case, my team was already really strong in 3s so I'd rather keep a true big like Thompson or Speights instead of picking up Frye to pad a stat I'd carry anyways.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Lakers win 2010 NBA Championship!
Wow! What a season and what a finals run. Over the summer, the defending NBA champs acquired former all-star and defensive player of the year Ron Artest and still managed to retain all their core pieces. On opening night, on his first trip to the free throw line, the MVP chants rained down from the rafters of the Staples Center for Kobe Bryant, marking a perfect start to the perfect season. Their young phenom center Andrew Bynum dropped 26/13 on that opening night and the Lakers proceeded to rattle off a 20-1 winning streak to open the season. They eventually shattered the 1995 Chicago Bull's 72-10 overall season record and in the playoffs, the Lakers would beattheir own 15-1 playoff record from 2000 by sweeping all their opponents for their 17th NBA championship.
...
Oh wait, no, that's not it. What you say? It's only the first week of the season and the Lakers have only played two games? Are you sure? Cuz it sure didn't seem that way based on the national presentation of the Lakers so far. On Tuesday, the Lakers were only up 2 pts at the start of the 4th quarter against the lowly Clippers and won with a margin of 7 pts, yet the TNT crew (Barkley, Kenny, Webber) all agreed that the Lakers will totally start the season 20-1 and challenge the Bulls 72-10 record. And then there was tonight's ESPN broadcast of the Lakers/Mavericks game. I know I'm a Laker hater and all, but that was seriously the most homeristic presentation I have EVER seen, and I'm a league pass subscriber. I've heard broadcasts from every team's home broadcast teams (incl. Boston's infamous Tommy Heinsolm) and this just takes the cake. ESPN's Mike Breen was just incredulous that the almighty Lakers could be down to anybody and would loudly exclaim every change in the score like it was an impossibility. Um, last I checked... the Mavs are still one of better teams in the West. They still have Dirk and Kidd and reloaded themselves over the summer with Marion and Gooden. They'll definitely be playoff bound come April and I think its just rude and disrespectful to dismiss them in such a way. And in case you missed it, the Mavs were up as much as 19 with 2:38 left in the 4th and eventually won by 14, 94-80.
The moral of this rant? It's a long season and every team and player has good days and bad days. Stop with the early over reactions. FWIW, I think the Lakers will probably be 17-4 at the end of 21 games. Yes, that's still an awesome .800 record and will likely be the best in the league, but it's a far cry from 20-1 and even farther from any notions of the 72-10 Bulls. For a little more perspective, the Celtics last year opened the season 23-2 and still "only" reached 62-10 by season's end. As for the those Bulls? Jordan, Pippen, and crew opened the season 41-3. Yeah, 41-3, that's a .931 winning percentage. So please shut up ESPN/TNT and all your national pundits. The Laker hype is in overdrive and I'm already sick of it and we're 2 games in.
/RANT
...
Oh wait, no, that's not it. What you say? It's only the first week of the season and the Lakers have only played two games? Are you sure? Cuz it sure didn't seem that way based on the national presentation of the Lakers so far. On Tuesday, the Lakers were only up 2 pts at the start of the 4th quarter against the lowly Clippers and won with a margin of 7 pts, yet the TNT crew (Barkley, Kenny, Webber) all agreed that the Lakers will totally start the season 20-1 and challenge the Bulls 72-10 record. And then there was tonight's ESPN broadcast of the Lakers/Mavericks game. I know I'm a Laker hater and all, but that was seriously the most homeristic presentation I have EVER seen, and I'm a league pass subscriber. I've heard broadcasts from every team's home broadcast teams (incl. Boston's infamous Tommy Heinsolm) and this just takes the cake. ESPN's Mike Breen was just incredulous that the almighty Lakers could be down to anybody and would loudly exclaim every change in the score like it was an impossibility. Um, last I checked... the Mavs are still one of better teams in the West. They still have Dirk and Kidd and reloaded themselves over the summer with Marion and Gooden. They'll definitely be playoff bound come April and I think its just rude and disrespectful to dismiss them in such a way. And in case you missed it, the Mavs were up as much as 19 with 2:38 left in the 4th and eventually won by 14, 94-80.
The moral of this rant? It's a long season and every team and player has good days and bad days. Stop with the early over reactions. FWIW, I think the Lakers will probably be 17-4 at the end of 21 games. Yes, that's still an awesome .800 record and will likely be the best in the league, but it's a far cry from 20-1 and even farther from any notions of the 72-10 Bulls. For a little more perspective, the Celtics last year opened the season 23-2 and still "only" reached 62-10 by season's end. As for the those Bulls? Jordan, Pippen, and crew opened the season 41-3. Yeah, 41-3, that's a .931 winning percentage. So please shut up ESPN/TNT and all your national pundits. The Laker hype is in overdrive and I'm already sick of it and we're 2 games in.
/RANT
Thursday, October 29, 2009
The Sky is Falling
Yes, the Cavaliers are 0-2 to start the season. Yes, they've already lost at home while it took until February last year for them to lose their first home game. Yes, Lebron James is already carrying an extraordinary load, averaging 42 minutes in the first two games. And yes, Shaq is 37 years old, terrible at the pick-n-roll defense, and a horrendous -25 in 25 minutes of play last night. We're two games into the season and the sky is falling in Cleveland. Brown is gonna get fired, James is gonna bail to NY this summer, and old Shaq has just ruined another championship contender. I say it's time to panic and blow everything up!
But wait! Maybe history can give us some perspective. Hmmm, if the Cavs win their next game (Friday @ MIN), they'd have the SAME record after three games as last year, 1-2. And you know who lost their first two games last year? To teams such as the Hawks and Grizzlies? If you guessed the reigning Eastern Conference Champs, the Orlando Magic, well, you'd be right! Oh and there's that team 4 years ago that opened the season with 4 straight losses and still ended up with a 67 win season and the best record in the NBA. Though of course we're hoping for a different postseason result than THAT team ;-)
Anyway... I say give the Cavs some time to gel and don't jump on Shaq's early disappointment too much. They'll get it together. Come back and re-evaluate in a couple weeks. Actually, just 13 days to be exact. That'll be a good evaluation point then.
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Oh and a quickie fantasy update... boo on Anthony Randolph and Spencer Hawes coming off the bench, WTF!?! Hopefully those situations don't last long. At least Hawes still played starter minutes. Hot pickups for me include Danilo Gallinari and Marreese Speights. Cold drops for me include DJ Augustin and Anthony Morrow. And if you're just looking for a temporary pickup, Ryan Anderson seems to be the primary beneficiary of Rashard Lewis' suspension. And keep an eye out for Chris Douglas Roberts. He had a pretty meh game last night, but he is starting and was pretty effective for the Nets in pre-season. I've picked him up in my deeper league (15 man rosters), but you can probably wait for a breakout game before snatching him up. Still, keep checking those Nets box scores. I think he can be a good sleeper candidate.
But wait! Maybe history can give us some perspective. Hmmm, if the Cavs win their next game (Friday @ MIN), they'd have the SAME record after three games as last year, 1-2. And you know who lost their first two games last year? To teams such as the Hawks and Grizzlies? If you guessed the reigning Eastern Conference Champs, the Orlando Magic, well, you'd be right! Oh and there's that team 4 years ago that opened the season with 4 straight losses and still ended up with a 67 win season and the best record in the NBA. Though of course we're hoping for a different postseason result than THAT team ;-)
Anyway... I say give the Cavs some time to gel and don't jump on Shaq's early disappointment too much. They'll get it together. Come back and re-evaluate in a couple weeks. Actually, just 13 days to be exact. That'll be a good evaluation point then.
...
Oh and a quickie fantasy update... boo on Anthony Randolph and Spencer Hawes coming off the bench, WTF!?! Hopefully those situations don't last long. At least Hawes still played starter minutes. Hot pickups for me include Danilo Gallinari and Marreese Speights. Cold drops for me include DJ Augustin and Anthony Morrow. And if you're just looking for a temporary pickup, Ryan Anderson seems to be the primary beneficiary of Rashard Lewis' suspension. And keep an eye out for Chris Douglas Roberts. He had a pretty meh game last night, but he is starting and was pretty effective for the Nets in pre-season. I've picked him up in my deeper league (15 man rosters), but you can probably wait for a breakout game before snatching him up. Still, keep checking those Nets box scores. I think he can be a good sleeper candidate.
Monday, October 26, 2009
Youtube Goodness
Alrighty, here's some videos for y'all today. First up, we have another insane preseason dunk from Blake Griffin. Seriously, the rookie looks insane and I love his aggressiveness on the court. Despite the end of the clip, I think Griffin will play on opening day this Wednesday (cuz Camby is already hurt) and he'll take the reins of the starting PF job for good right away. Griffin reminds me of a pre-surgery Amare that actually cares about defense and grabbing boards. Good stuff! Video courtesy of ClipperBlog.
The second video features another rookie (to-be) in Ricky Rubio where he just helped his new team Barca thoroughly rout his former team Joventut to the tune of 92-59. He sure looks NBA ready to me... too bad we'll probably have to wait two years to finally see him here. Some real fancy passes... esp. the last one, mind boggling awareness and creativity. Video courtesy of Ball in Europe.
And one last bit of news. Nicolas Batum has a torn labrum and will undergo surgery this week. It's the same injury that Jameer Nelson suffered last year. The recovery time is expected to be 3-5 months. If Batum is back at all, it'll be late in the season, he'll be rusty, and the team would already have a set rotation/chemistry. In my opinion this is practically the same as season ending for Batum. Really bad news for the young SF and the Blazers. Though maybe it'll open up more playing time for Rudy Fernandez, though I'd expect Martell Webster to take back his starting SF job (which he coincidentally lost to Batum last year cuz of his own season ending injury).
I know the season hasn't even started yet... but I'm seriously starting to get nervous for my Blazers. Their preseason performance has been completely lackluster. Just 4-4 so far and Roy in particular have struggle, putting up just 12.6 pts, 2.1 rebs, 4.4 asts, 2.1 tos in 26 minutes on 40% shooting. There's was also some dissent with newly acquired PG Andre Miller wanting a starting job and now this major injury to Batum. I'm just hoping we start hearing some good news out of Portland soon...
The second video features another rookie (to-be) in Ricky Rubio where he just helped his new team Barca thoroughly rout his former team Joventut to the tune of 92-59. He sure looks NBA ready to me... too bad we'll probably have to wait two years to finally see him here. Some real fancy passes... esp. the last one, mind boggling awareness and creativity. Video courtesy of Ball in Europe.
And one last bit of news. Nicolas Batum has a torn labrum and will undergo surgery this week. It's the same injury that Jameer Nelson suffered last year. The recovery time is expected to be 3-5 months. If Batum is back at all, it'll be late in the season, he'll be rusty, and the team would already have a set rotation/chemistry. In my opinion this is practically the same as season ending for Batum. Really bad news for the young SF and the Blazers. Though maybe it'll open up more playing time for Rudy Fernandez, though I'd expect Martell Webster to take back his starting SF job (which he coincidentally lost to Batum last year cuz of his own season ending injury).
I know the season hasn't even started yet... but I'm seriously starting to get nervous for my Blazers. Their preseason performance has been completely lackluster. Just 4-4 so far and Roy in particular have struggle, putting up just 12.6 pts, 2.1 rebs, 4.4 asts, 2.1 tos in 26 minutes on 40% shooting. There's was also some dissent with newly acquired PG Andre Miller wanting a starting job and now this major injury to Batum. I'm just hoping we start hearing some good news out of Portland soon...
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Draft Picks... Part 2
Once again, players are ranked by their Yahoo O-Rank. Here we go...
52) Michael Redd - Last year rank 197. Early reports say Redd's finally healthy. But like lots of other players, Redd just seems to keep getting injured. Sure, it's always a different body part so it's not a chronic condition, but injury prone is injury prone. And even when healthy, he doesn't contribute much besides pts and 3s. At 30 years old and with the same team/system, I don't see how he can improve from his healthy numbers. Pass.
55) Rajon Rondo - Last year rank 51. Rondo absolutely exploded during the playoffs last year, averaging almost a triple double 16.9/9.7/9.8 through the playoffs. He won't rebound anywhere near that during the season, but he's improved every year of his career so far. I see no reason why he won't bump his points and assists a bit from last year's 12/8. Celtics got more help up front with the addition of Rasheed but still no legit backup PG so the minutes are all Rondo's. Solid pickup here.
58) Nene - Last year rank 22. Really wish his rebounds were higher (7.8 rpg) but he'll contribute in stls, blks, and fg%. And doesn't really hurt you anywhere else. Hopefully last year WASN'T a fluke in terms of health (77 games played). Don't read too much in to that 22 rank from last year and don't reach too far... but imho Nene's a solid pick anywhere in the 50s.
61) Charlie Villanueva - Last year rank 61. Charlie put up his stats last year with just 26 MPG. Now he's on the Pistons who basically have no other legit bigs (Kwame? Old Ben? Wilcox?). I can totally see his minutes climb into the higher 30s... which *should* mean he can only improve upon last year. Maybe not in points (14+ FGA will be hard to top with his trigger happy guards), but at least rebounds if not asts/stls/blocks as well.
63) Mo Williams - Last year rank 24. Another good pick up if you can nab him near here. Lots of pts, 3s, and solid percentages. With Shaq drawing double teams and semi-backup Delonte West in legal troubles... if anything, Mo should improve on his 2.3 3PG and 4.1 apg from last year. Even if you'd had to reach up in the 50s for Mo, he's still a great pick imho.
66) Andre Miller - Last year rank 34. First word out of Portland is that Miller will be coming off the bench. Ignore that 34 rank from last year... Miller might not have lost a step, but minutes will be hard to come by with Portland's depth. You need playtime to rack up the stats... pass on Miller.
68) Andrew Bynum - Last year rank 143. Laker bias aside, I still don't like Bynum. Sure, he'll have the occasional WOW game, but he's gonna disappoint more often than not. On top of injury risks (50 and 35 games played the last 2 seasons), the Lakers are just loaded. He's gonna be fighting Odom for minutes and sometimes they might even roll Artest out there as a four. Pass on this one.
72) Anthony Randolph - Last year rank 185. Randolph showed glimpse of his potential towards the end of the last year when he averaged an impressive 15/10 wiith 1.5 stls and 1 blks over the last 8 games of the season when given starter's minutes. He continued the trend by dominating this year's summer league. Anything can happen when Nellie's the coach, but Randolph *should* be the starter and given 30+ minutes this year. If that happens, I expect this to be an extremely good pick as Randolph can really do a bit of everything, kind of like a G-Wallace type.
73) Paul Millsap - Last year rank 56. That rank is a bit deceiving since Millsap as the starter in Utah is a top 35-40 player. However as a backup to Boozer is a top 80-90 player. So which one are you going to get? Boozer is still on the Jazz roster. The Jazz don't really want Boozer for the future, but they're not gonna just sit Boozer (that will tank his value). But waiting for a trade can wreck your team... what if a deal doesn't go down until the trade deadline? Over half the season would be gone. Avoid this mess and pass Millsap. Draft him next year.
76) Rasheed Wallace - Last year rank 53. 'Sheed's gonna be a backup in Boston this year. KG and Perkins are gonna be the starters and 'Sheed will still have Big Baby competing in minutes. Sure, 'Sheed will be the one in the game in the 4th and if KG goes down, he can get a good boost... but overall, I think it'll be hard for him to crack 28 minutes. Pass.
81) Jason Terry - Last year rank 20. On the one hand, you can think Terry's 19.6 ppg and 2.3 3PG were flukes last year (both career highs). But on the other hand... Terry has always been a SG in a PG's body and last year was the first year he played almost exclusively in the SG role (playing off PG Jason Kidd). I think Terry's points might dip a bit this year... but even 17 ppg with two 3s is fantastic value at this point of the draft. Especially considering his decent %s and low TOs. FWIW, I got him in the 8th round of my first draft his year (overall 90th pick). That was straight robbery and I consider that my best steal of the draft.
83) JR Smith - Last year rank 70. JR Smith was certainly hot at times last year and his 3pt barrages can straight win you games some weeks. Still he's suspended for the first 7 games of the season. That's 2 weeks. He ain't Rashard Lewis... you don't need or want to wait for him. Odds are, he'll get drafted but dropped for some new hotness in the first week or so, so if you really want him, you can pick him off waivers for free if you're quick about it. Pass for now.
88) Chris Kaman - Last year rank 250. Avoid, avoid, avoid. Only 31 and 56 games played in the past two seasons. And he's really only had one awesome season in his 6 year career (that 56 game 07-08 season where he avg. 15.7/12.7). With youngins Blake and DeAndre Jordan waiting on the bench... Kaman's upside is minimal and the downside is downright catastrophic. Let someone else take this gamble. Pass.
90) Wilson Chandler - Last year rank 61. The D'Antoni system is great for players and Chandler is no exception. He averaged 14.4/5.4 with a 3, steal, and a block per game last year. This will just be his 3rd year in the league so there's even more room for improvement. He's like a Marion-lite that plays the 2-3 instead of the 3-4. Even modest bumps in his stats will push him into a top 50 fantasy player. You'll probably have to reach earlier for Chandler, but he'll be worth it.
92) Luis Scola - Last year rank 64. With Yao out for the season, Scola will be expected to carry the bulk of the load upfront for the Rockets. He already averaged 12.7/8.8 last year. I think 14/10 will be an easy target for Scola and even 15/11 doesn't seem outrageous. That's damn good value this late in the draft, especially for a F/C. And he's been durable too... 82 games each the past two seasons. Again, you'll probably have to reach for him, so don't actually wait until the 90s.
95) Andrew Bogut - Last year rank 221. The rank mostly has to do with him only playing 36 games last year. He also only played 66 games in 06-07. But he did play 82 and 78 games in his other two years in the league... so I dunno if it's fair to call him injury prone yet. Still, I just can't shake that iffy feeling with Bogut. And even when healthy, he's a low double-double guy (12-10, 1 blk). That's about on par for an 80ish player... so is it really worth the injury risks with the minimal upside? I'd only draft him if you're short on Cs. If not, pass.
97) Trever Ariza - Last year rank 74. Ariza was a 24 minute role player with the Lakers but with the injury depleted Rockets, he's gonna be a 30+ minute starter and the #2-3 option on the team. Minute projects are hardly accurate, BUT just for kicks... his per 36 minutes from last year projects to 13 pts, 6 rebs, 2.5 steals and a 3. That seems pretty reasonable. And those steals will be almost enough to carry you some weeks. I say draft him.
52) Michael Redd - Last year rank 197. Early reports say Redd's finally healthy. But like lots of other players, Redd just seems to keep getting injured. Sure, it's always a different body part so it's not a chronic condition, but injury prone is injury prone. And even when healthy, he doesn't contribute much besides pts and 3s. At 30 years old and with the same team/system, I don't see how he can improve from his healthy numbers. Pass.
55) Rajon Rondo - Last year rank 51. Rondo absolutely exploded during the playoffs last year, averaging almost a triple double 16.9/9.7/9.8 through the playoffs. He won't rebound anywhere near that during the season, but he's improved every year of his career so far. I see no reason why he won't bump his points and assists a bit from last year's 12/8. Celtics got more help up front with the addition of Rasheed but still no legit backup PG so the minutes are all Rondo's. Solid pickup here.
58) Nene - Last year rank 22. Really wish his rebounds were higher (7.8 rpg) but he'll contribute in stls, blks, and fg%. And doesn't really hurt you anywhere else. Hopefully last year WASN'T a fluke in terms of health (77 games played). Don't read too much in to that 22 rank from last year and don't reach too far... but imho Nene's a solid pick anywhere in the 50s.
61) Charlie Villanueva - Last year rank 61. Charlie put up his stats last year with just 26 MPG. Now he's on the Pistons who basically have no other legit bigs (Kwame? Old Ben? Wilcox?). I can totally see his minutes climb into the higher 30s... which *should* mean he can only improve upon last year. Maybe not in points (14+ FGA will be hard to top with his trigger happy guards), but at least rebounds if not asts/stls/blocks as well.
63) Mo Williams - Last year rank 24. Another good pick up if you can nab him near here. Lots of pts, 3s, and solid percentages. With Shaq drawing double teams and semi-backup Delonte West in legal troubles... if anything, Mo should improve on his 2.3 3PG and 4.1 apg from last year. Even if you'd had to reach up in the 50s for Mo, he's still a great pick imho.
66) Andre Miller - Last year rank 34. First word out of Portland is that Miller will be coming off the bench. Ignore that 34 rank from last year... Miller might not have lost a step, but minutes will be hard to come by with Portland's depth. You need playtime to rack up the stats... pass on Miller.
68) Andrew Bynum - Last year rank 143. Laker bias aside, I still don't like Bynum. Sure, he'll have the occasional WOW game, but he's gonna disappoint more often than not. On top of injury risks (50 and 35 games played the last 2 seasons), the Lakers are just loaded. He's gonna be fighting Odom for minutes and sometimes they might even roll Artest out there as a four. Pass on this one.
72) Anthony Randolph - Last year rank 185. Randolph showed glimpse of his potential towards the end of the last year when he averaged an impressive 15/10 wiith 1.5 stls and 1 blks over the last 8 games of the season when given starter's minutes. He continued the trend by dominating this year's summer league. Anything can happen when Nellie's the coach, but Randolph *should* be the starter and given 30+ minutes this year. If that happens, I expect this to be an extremely good pick as Randolph can really do a bit of everything, kind of like a G-Wallace type.
73) Paul Millsap - Last year rank 56. That rank is a bit deceiving since Millsap as the starter in Utah is a top 35-40 player. However as a backup to Boozer is a top 80-90 player. So which one are you going to get? Boozer is still on the Jazz roster. The Jazz don't really want Boozer for the future, but they're not gonna just sit Boozer (that will tank his value). But waiting for a trade can wreck your team... what if a deal doesn't go down until the trade deadline? Over half the season would be gone. Avoid this mess and pass Millsap. Draft him next year.
76) Rasheed Wallace - Last year rank 53. 'Sheed's gonna be a backup in Boston this year. KG and Perkins are gonna be the starters and 'Sheed will still have Big Baby competing in minutes. Sure, 'Sheed will be the one in the game in the 4th and if KG goes down, he can get a good boost... but overall, I think it'll be hard for him to crack 28 minutes. Pass.
81) Jason Terry - Last year rank 20. On the one hand, you can think Terry's 19.6 ppg and 2.3 3PG were flukes last year (both career highs). But on the other hand... Terry has always been a SG in a PG's body and last year was the first year he played almost exclusively in the SG role (playing off PG Jason Kidd). I think Terry's points might dip a bit this year... but even 17 ppg with two 3s is fantastic value at this point of the draft. Especially considering his decent %s and low TOs. FWIW, I got him in the 8th round of my first draft his year (overall 90th pick). That was straight robbery and I consider that my best steal of the draft.
83) JR Smith - Last year rank 70. JR Smith was certainly hot at times last year and his 3pt barrages can straight win you games some weeks. Still he's suspended for the first 7 games of the season. That's 2 weeks. He ain't Rashard Lewis... you don't need or want to wait for him. Odds are, he'll get drafted but dropped for some new hotness in the first week or so, so if you really want him, you can pick him off waivers for free if you're quick about it. Pass for now.
88) Chris Kaman - Last year rank 250. Avoid, avoid, avoid. Only 31 and 56 games played in the past two seasons. And he's really only had one awesome season in his 6 year career (that 56 game 07-08 season where he avg. 15.7/12.7). With youngins Blake and DeAndre Jordan waiting on the bench... Kaman's upside is minimal and the downside is downright catastrophic. Let someone else take this gamble. Pass.
90) Wilson Chandler - Last year rank 61. The D'Antoni system is great for players and Chandler is no exception. He averaged 14.4/5.4 with a 3, steal, and a block per game last year. This will just be his 3rd year in the league so there's even more room for improvement. He's like a Marion-lite that plays the 2-3 instead of the 3-4. Even modest bumps in his stats will push him into a top 50 fantasy player. You'll probably have to reach earlier for Chandler, but he'll be worth it.
92) Luis Scola - Last year rank 64. With Yao out for the season, Scola will be expected to carry the bulk of the load upfront for the Rockets. He already averaged 12.7/8.8 last year. I think 14/10 will be an easy target for Scola and even 15/11 doesn't seem outrageous. That's damn good value this late in the draft, especially for a F/C. And he's been durable too... 82 games each the past two seasons. Again, you'll probably have to reach for him, so don't actually wait until the 90s.
95) Andrew Bogut - Last year rank 221. The rank mostly has to do with him only playing 36 games last year. He also only played 66 games in 06-07. But he did play 82 and 78 games in his other two years in the league... so I dunno if it's fair to call him injury prone yet. Still, I just can't shake that iffy feeling with Bogut. And even when healthy, he's a low double-double guy (12-10, 1 blk). That's about on par for an 80ish player... so is it really worth the injury risks with the minimal upside? I'd only draft him if you're short on Cs. If not, pass.
97) Trever Ariza - Last year rank 74. Ariza was a 24 minute role player with the Lakers but with the injury depleted Rockets, he's gonna be a 30+ minute starter and the #2-3 option on the team. Minute projects are hardly accurate, BUT just for kicks... his per 36 minutes from last year projects to 13 pts, 6 rebs, 2.5 steals and a 3. That seems pretty reasonable. And those steals will be almost enough to carry you some weeks. I say draft him.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Draft Picks... Part 1
Right... so who should you draft and when, that's the big question. In general, if you just follow Yahoo's O-Rank and Rank, you'll be *okay*. If the difference between O-Rank and Rank are fairly even, then it's a "safe pick". What you want to watch out for are the large discrepancies, either plus or minus. Here I'll list some of the prominent ones that caught my eye. Players are numbered by their O-Rank.
12) Kevin Garnett - Last year rank 41. Garnett himself says that he's 80-90% healthy but getting better everyday. Early reviews out of training camp shows that he has to wear a knee brace and is showing obvious difficultly making quick lateral movements. He's also 33 and entering his 15th season, personally I'd pass on him in the draft. He's gonna be a lot closer to top 50 than top 12.
16) Caron Butler - Last year rank 36. Injury prone, Butler hasn't played 70 games in the last 3 seasons. Add in the return of Gilbert Arenas (shots taken) and Mike Miller off the WAS bench (minutes played), and at best Butler gives you a repeat performance of last year... which is still 20 spots lower than he's ranked. Pass.
21) Jose Calderon - Last year rank 28. Though not that big of difference between 21 and 28, I think Jose's numbers are gonna drop this year. He now has a legitimate backup that can potentially steal some minutes in Jarret Jack and a new point-forward teammate that can steal his assist in Turkoglu. If he's still there at the end of round 3, fine, pick up Calderon. But don't waste that round 2 pick on hims!
23) Jason Kidd - Last year rank 9. Old reliable. Kidd might have lost a step on the court, but he's still a fantasy monster and surprisingly sturdy with 80+ games played each of the last 3 seasons. His ast numbers dipped a bit last year from 9.5 to 8.7, but with the addition of Marion as a finisher... I think Kidd can inch back towards 10 apg again. He's a solid pick at 23. I'd definately take him there.
30) Kevin Martin - Last year rank 100. One of the most efficient offensive players in the game, but can you really count on him being there? 61 and 51 games played in the past two seasons. I say pass.
31) Gilbert Arenas - Last year rank 404. Early reports say his knees are alright. And now reports say he had a dislocated finger a few weeks ago and that it might be a lingering issue throughout the season. He's only 27 and when he's on, Gil's a top 10 player in the league. However, he's only played 15 games total in the last 2 years, which is obviously terrible. All that said, you *should* avoid him. 'Cept this is the first and best example of take everything I say with a grain of salt because even I ignored my own advice and took him in round 3 of my first draft. Guess I'm just a glutton for punishment ;-) If you remember, I also took Gil in 3 out of 3 leagues back in 2007 when he only played 13 games. =(
35) Troy Murphy - Last year rank 15. Murphey is a steal anywhere at 35. With any luck, you're nabbing him a bit late in early round 4. A double-double FC with two 3s is definately solid in late round 3 and a steal for round 4. He does tend to miss 15-20 games a year though, so hopefully it's not when you need him the most.
36) Rashard Lewis - Last year rank 17. Suspended first 10 games of the season for steroid use. That'll make him unavailable for your first 3 weeks... if you can deal with that, he's a good pick in rounds 3-4 considering he was a top 20 guy last year.
37) Elton Brand - Last year rank 272. Early reports from training camp say he's not showing any ill effects from his shoulder surgery last year. However even before he was injured last year, Brand was having problems meshing with the 76ers full court offense. How will he fair this year? I say let someone else take that gamble, pass.
40) LeMarcus Aldridge - Last year rank 27. I admit I have a bit of a pro-bias for Portland players... but Aldridge is the real deal. Even last year, he was already better than his current top 40 rank. He's only 24 and this is only his 4th season in the league, just from growth/experience, I'd expect him to at least improve modestly over last year. And if Oden pans out at all... that's just less attention from the opposing bigs and more room for Aldridge to operate. Pick him up!
41) Baron Davis - Last year rank 141. Last year was a horrible year statistically for Baron (.370 FG%, really?!?). But even discounting the stats, Baron is injury prone, with only one 70+ game season in the past 8 years. They've shipped out the bad-juju in Zach Randolph and they got an exciting #1 rookie in Blake Griffin... BUT they're still the Clippers. Bad things tend to happen, even IF the player is really trying. I say pass.
47) Marcus Camby - Last year rank 42. The glassman. He had one healthy season two years ago, don't count on that happening again. Add to that a #1 pick (Griffin) waiting on the bench to steal his minutes and I'd say let someone else take the risk on Camby.
48) David Lee - Last year rank 18. The D'Antoni effect is a godsend for contract players and fantasy managers. Lee averaged an elite 16/11 last year and I see no reason why he can't offer a repeat performance. Rookie Jordan Hill won't really threaten for minutes right away and even if D'Antoni goes small with lots of wings... I expect Lee to still stay in the game a center to clean up the boards. For a late 4th rounder, Lee's a steal.
Alrighty... that gets us to the top 50 players. More to come soon!
12) Kevin Garnett - Last year rank 41. Garnett himself says that he's 80-90% healthy but getting better everyday. Early reviews out of training camp shows that he has to wear a knee brace and is showing obvious difficultly making quick lateral movements. He's also 33 and entering his 15th season, personally I'd pass on him in the draft. He's gonna be a lot closer to top 50 than top 12.
16) Caron Butler - Last year rank 36. Injury prone, Butler hasn't played 70 games in the last 3 seasons. Add in the return of Gilbert Arenas (shots taken) and Mike Miller off the WAS bench (minutes played), and at best Butler gives you a repeat performance of last year... which is still 20 spots lower than he's ranked. Pass.
21) Jose Calderon - Last year rank 28. Though not that big of difference between 21 and 28, I think Jose's numbers are gonna drop this year. He now has a legitimate backup that can potentially steal some minutes in Jarret Jack and a new point-forward teammate that can steal his assist in Turkoglu. If he's still there at the end of round 3, fine, pick up Calderon. But don't waste that round 2 pick on hims!
23) Jason Kidd - Last year rank 9. Old reliable. Kidd might have lost a step on the court, but he's still a fantasy monster and surprisingly sturdy with 80+ games played each of the last 3 seasons. His ast numbers dipped a bit last year from 9.5 to 8.7, but with the addition of Marion as a finisher... I think Kidd can inch back towards 10 apg again. He's a solid pick at 23. I'd definately take him there.
30) Kevin Martin - Last year rank 100. One of the most efficient offensive players in the game, but can you really count on him being there? 61 and 51 games played in the past two seasons. I say pass.
31) Gilbert Arenas - Last year rank 404. Early reports say his knees are alright. And now reports say he had a dislocated finger a few weeks ago and that it might be a lingering issue throughout the season. He's only 27 and when he's on, Gil's a top 10 player in the league. However, he's only played 15 games total in the last 2 years, which is obviously terrible. All that said, you *should* avoid him. 'Cept this is the first and best example of take everything I say with a grain of salt because even I ignored my own advice and took him in round 3 of my first draft. Guess I'm just a glutton for punishment ;-) If you remember, I also took Gil in 3 out of 3 leagues back in 2007 when he only played 13 games. =(
35) Troy Murphy - Last year rank 15. Murphey is a steal anywhere at 35. With any luck, you're nabbing him a bit late in early round 4. A double-double FC with two 3s is definately solid in late round 3 and a steal for round 4. He does tend to miss 15-20 games a year though, so hopefully it's not when you need him the most.
36) Rashard Lewis - Last year rank 17. Suspended first 10 games of the season for steroid use. That'll make him unavailable for your first 3 weeks... if you can deal with that, he's a good pick in rounds 3-4 considering he was a top 20 guy last year.
37) Elton Brand - Last year rank 272. Early reports from training camp say he's not showing any ill effects from his shoulder surgery last year. However even before he was injured last year, Brand was having problems meshing with the 76ers full court offense. How will he fair this year? I say let someone else take that gamble, pass.
40) LeMarcus Aldridge - Last year rank 27. I admit I have a bit of a pro-bias for Portland players... but Aldridge is the real deal. Even last year, he was already better than his current top 40 rank. He's only 24 and this is only his 4th season in the league, just from growth/experience, I'd expect him to at least improve modestly over last year. And if Oden pans out at all... that's just less attention from the opposing bigs and more room for Aldridge to operate. Pick him up!
41) Baron Davis - Last year rank 141. Last year was a horrible year statistically for Baron (.370 FG%, really?!?). But even discounting the stats, Baron is injury prone, with only one 70+ game season in the past 8 years. They've shipped out the bad-juju in Zach Randolph and they got an exciting #1 rookie in Blake Griffin... BUT they're still the Clippers. Bad things tend to happen, even IF the player is really trying. I say pass.
47) Marcus Camby - Last year rank 42. The glassman. He had one healthy season two years ago, don't count on that happening again. Add to that a #1 pick (Griffin) waiting on the bench to steal his minutes and I'd say let someone else take the risk on Camby.
48) David Lee - Last year rank 18. The D'Antoni effect is a godsend for contract players and fantasy managers. Lee averaged an elite 16/11 last year and I see no reason why he can't offer a repeat performance. Rookie Jordan Hill won't really threaten for minutes right away and even if D'Antoni goes small with lots of wings... I expect Lee to still stay in the game a center to clean up the boards. For a late 4th rounder, Lee's a steal.
Alrighty... that gets us to the top 50 players. More to come soon!
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