Friday, January 16, 2009

Friday Postings

Talk about a decisive win. Random news blurp, but a high school girl's basketball team held their opponent without a field goal for the ENTIRE game. They won, 94-1.

"I've had 100 points scored on me before, and I think it's important to respect the game and to respect your opponent," Frontier Academy head coach Nathan Buxman said this morning in a phone interview. "We show the most respect for our opponents by continuing to play hard."

That's damn impressive. And also sad for the other team. You figure, if all you did all game... for 40-50 possessions was to chuck crazy 3s anywhere from the arc to half court, you'd hit at least 1. Would be interesting to see some clips of that game.

Anyhoo, here's tonight's predictions...

New York 3.5 +208
Washington -3.5 -208



Toronto 4.5 +214
Indiana -4.5 -214



San Antonio -3 +193.5
Phila. 3 -193.5



Detroit -4.5 +188.5
Oklahoma City 4.5 -188.5



Utah -4.5 +194.5
Memphis 4.5 -194.5



New Orleans 3 +185
Cleveland -3 -185



Minnesota 8 +215
Phoenix -8 -215



Milwaukee 0 +207
Sacramento 0 -207



Orlando 4.5 +215
LA Lakers -4.5 -215



Atlanta -1 +216.5
Golden State 1 -216.5

Jason... Assistant Coach

I guess Porter didn't read about the importance of last night's game, huh? With the Suns playing two sets of back-to-backs on Thur (@DEN)/Fri (MIN) and Sun(@TOR)/Mon(@BOS), he decided to give Shaq the night off against the Nuggets. Now, I get the whole resting games bit, Shaq is old and we want to preserve him. But why sit the Denver game? They're a conference rival and seeding/home court could come down to tiebreakers. We NEEDED to win that game. If Shaq's gonna sit... sit him for MIN and TOR. He'll be even MORE rested for Boston on Monday. That's just sheer stupidity on coach Porter's fault.

And speaking of Porter's stupidity... the offense, defense, set plays, etc, I'll give him a pass on all of those. But his rotations, man, that's just absurd. I have better rotations in 2K9. For two minutes there at the start of the 2nd quarter, he had an ALL bench lineup of Lopez, Barnes, Dudley, Tucker, and Barbosa in there. WTF?!?! In the first and third quarters, he should sub for J-Rich earlier so he can play more with Barbosa and the 2nd team. If you want to play Dudley or Tucker, fine, but only play them ONE at a time, and preferably with Nash being the decision maker out there. And Robin Lopez has just been TERRIBLE. The man is 7 ft tall and he manages to snag just TWO rebounds in 22 minutes, only 1 of which was a defensive rebound. He coughed up 3 turnovers to go with that failure on the boards. Not surprisingly, he also had the worst +/- of the team at -19. Couldn't Porter had found more minutes for Amundson? Lou had been playing much better recently, was a +6 for the game, yet only got 13 minutes. Btw, he managed to grab 6 boards (4 defensive) , block 2 shots, and commit 0 turnovers during that stretch. Bench is bench, play your best guys!

Nash and Amare should play together more. Having Amare out there with the 2nd team is a bit counterproductive since Amare CAN'T create for himself (no back to the basket game) and we have no real backup PG. Play J-Rich and Hill with Barbs and the 2nd team more, since all three of them can reasonably create for themselves.

Here's what I would do... you take J-Rich and Hill out around the 5 minute mark, bring in Barbs and Barnes. Amundson comes in whenever Lopez is tired, playing crappy, and/or in foul trouble. When Nash and Amare sit at the end of the 1st or start of the 2nd, return J-Rich and Hill and go small with Amundson at the C. That's an eight man rotation. That's good enough. If you really want to, you can cheat a few of Hill, Amundson, or Barnes's minutes (while Nash is on the court) and get Dudley and/or Tucker in there for 2-3 minutes at a a time. Lopez and Amundson should be playing even minutes, if not more for Amundson since he'll combo the F-C while Lopez is stricly C. Also, tell Barbs that if his shot isn't falling (1-11 from the field, 0-5 from the 3), chucking up rainbows over Nene probably ain't the best idea. ATTACK the friggin basket!!!

Anyhoo... yeah, that's about all I have for that game. Missed the Portland game against New Jersey so I don't have much to say about that. 'Cept just 13 min w/ 2 fouls for Oden. I'm VERY disappointed. Granted he had a -9 in that brief stretch, but at least give the man a chance to redeem himself. With his recent suckage, I'm seriously contemplating dropping Oden in one of my fantasy leagues (hold him in two). Oh yeah, I did catch this SICK dunk by Bayless on the highlight reel though...

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Ankle Insurance

So, tonight's a big night for the Suns. If we beat the Nuggets, we'll move into the top 4 in the west. I'd just like to take a moment here and confirm what a great trade Jason Richardson turned out to be. With J-Rich in the lineup, we're 9-3, with two of those losses due to last second 3s from the opponent (SAS & IND). Sure, we've beaten our share of scrub teams during this recent run, but we've also had quality wins against playoff bound teams like the Hawks, Mavs, Nuggets, and Magic. IMHO, we will end up with home court in the first round.

And I saw the triple overtime game between GS and Sacto last night. Sacto was up three at the end of the first OT. Turiaf caught the inbound pass and instead of fouling him (career 70% FT), Sacto lets him screen for and pass to Azubuike for the game tying 3. Then at the end of the second OT, it was GS who was up 3. With 6 seconds to go and Sacto out of timeouts, GS let Kevin Martin dribble all the way up court to make the game tying 3 to send in to triple OT. While that was exciting and all... it was just stupid, stupid, stupid basketball. It was the same last year in the playoffs, when the Suns let the Spurs kill them with 3s by Finely and Duncan at the end of regulation and overtime. I seriously don't understand why so few teams foul when they're up 3 late. When you have great FT shooters like Martin (86%), Crawford (85%), and Nash (90%), I'd take my chances on my guy to hit those FTs over stopping the opponent anyday.

I also caught the LAL/SAS game... and damn, SAS probably has the best front office in the league. I hate to give them their props, but they do just about EVERYTHING well. From drafting, to trades, to FA signings. I don't watch that many SAS games but that's two game winners so far this year I've seen by Roger Mason (PHO on Christmas being the other). Mason was a great AND cheap ($7 mil / 2 years) signing. It's amazing how SAS continues to keep their weapons stocked despite minimal cap room and late 1st picks. They lost Brent Barry this offseason and Bowen has noticeably lost a step due to age. But SAS just continues to roll along, drafting George Hill and signing Mason, and now their swing positions are as strong as ever.

And since the Lakers lost yesterday day and the Suns are doing so well lately, here's a rare Kobe post by me. Kobe, Insurance Salesman.

Monday, January 12, 2009

Darius Miles and the Cap

So, Darius Miles got resigned by the Grizzlies. With games tomorrow against the Cavs and the Jazz on Friday, by this weekend, Portland's salary cap situation could be seriously impacted. For a quick recap... Miles is owed $18 million over the next two years. His previous injuries were deemed career ending so his salary was being paid for by insurance (he still gets paid either way) and won't count against Portland's cap space. However, if he plays 10 games, then his salary goes back on Portland's cap and they have to pay it. He's already logged 8 games this season (6 in preseason with the Celts and 2 with the Griz) so it's pretty much a done deal he's gonna get that 10 games played this year.

I don't really want to get into who's ultimately wrong in this whole mess. Miles screwed up by not wanting to rehab properly and slacking off during his time with the Blazers. He never put in the effort in the gym and with the trainers to get back on the court until he was cut by the Blazers. The Blazers screwed up by threatening the every team in the league with frivolous lawsuits in a petty and ineffective attempt to keep them from signing Miles. And the Griz screwed up by signing Miles just to mess with Portland's cap space. I doubt any fan really think the Griz are signing Miles to help them win games. Not when a perfectly healthy Jaric is getting zero minutes and the Griz already have two vets (Buckner and Ross) coming off the bench in the wing positions.

Still though, it's not the end of the world for the Blazers. If they let Frye and Diogu walk (both seldom used), they'll be at $46 mil this summer. Assuming the cap will be ~$59 mil, they'll have $13 mil in space With max years and max raises (8%), they can hand out a 5 year, $75 million contract this summer (or split it between a couple players). Too bad Granger already re-upped or else he'd be an ideal target. Here's a list of all the RFA and FA for '09 and '10. IMHO, the only appealing targets are Turkoglu and A. Miller. So while having the option would have been nice, it's not like Portland really had enough target(s) for $20+ mil in cap space anyways. The only real hit is probably having to pay Mile's salary instead of having insurance pick it up.

But this situation brings up an interesting problem regarding guaranteed contracts and the salary cap. Just about every team out there are bogged down by one or more bad contract(s). Whether it's the players' fault (lack of effort) or not (plagued by injuries), these contracts, coupled with the restrictions on the salary cap makes roster moves difficult. In turn, as fans, we get an inferior product because either players play lackadaisically and/or teams have to undergo "rebuilding" stages as they dump talent and wait for bad contracts to expire.

So with that in mind, here's a couple of my ideas for fixing the cap problem. I think either or both options can seriously help and if the NBA ever adopts anything like these... just remember you read it here first. ;-)

1) Stop fully guaranteeing contracts. Too many players simply go into cruise control after they get a fat pay day, or else start sulking when their team stops wining (causing more losses, less effort, etc.) So, here's what I propose... for non-rookie deals, only 50% of the amount equal to the MLE (Mid Level Exception, the average salary of all NBA players) and 50% of any amounts thereafter can be fully guaranteed. The rest of the contract must be incentive/goal based.

So, here's an example. Say Marbury's contract is $20 million. The MLE is $5.5 million. So, he'll have the first $2.75 million guaranteed, plus 50% of the remaining amount ($17.25 million / 2 = $8.625 million ). So he'll have $13.75 million guaranteed. The remaining $8.265 million must be "earned". I think that's a big enough incentive for him to want to play well and work hard to get back from injuries.

Here's another example... Jerome James contract is $6.2 million. So he'll have the first $2.75 guaranteed, then 50% of the remaining amount ($3.45 million / 2 = $1.75 million). So he'll have $4.475 million guaranteed and $1.75 million in incentives. Obviously, these deals are more significant for superstar type players getting max or near max deals. But usually, it's those players and their dead weight deals that can really wreck a franchise.

The number and type of incentives/goals can be whatever the team and player agrees upon on a case by case basis. Some examples could be individual based like "play in 60 games" or "average 15 points". Others could be team based like "win 41 games" or "make the playoffs". Some could just be behavior based like "no altercations with the law" or "no more than 10 technical fouls". The exact number and type of incentives is up to the player and team. If the team is dumb enough to just have a "win 1 game" goal or something similar, then it's their own fault.

And players can't really complain because they're still getting a good chunk of their money. Well more than enough to feed their families ;-) And they agreed on the incentives too... so they should think they're able to achieve those marks. And if you're Grant Hill from his Orlando days or Steve Francis since '04-'05... do you really think you deserve ALL of that money?

By the way, the reason for guaranteeing the first part of the MLE is to protect the end of the bench guys. If you're a NBA player and only earning $1 mil, it'd suck to have half of it get taken away. To further protect players, all unearned incentives are paid into a general pool at the end of the season, kind of like the escrow tax, and then redistributed to the players (proportions to be determined later). That way, teams won't intentionally bench a player or tank games just to save some money since they have to pay that amount anyways. And the players' whole salary (guaranteed and incentives) count against the cap, so teams don't give out stupid contracts thinking players won't earn them.

2) My second idea is a lot simpler... just DON'T count waived or retired players against the salary cap. They'll still count against the luxury cap, so teams still have to be wary of paying dollar for dollar if they spend too much. But the salary cap should be just for players that are actually PLAYING on the team. This will make it much easier for teams to make roster changes. Since it still incurs the luxury tax, I don't think this would be abused that much, since only very few teams (Portland, New York, maybe Dallas) have the rich and willing owners to go over the lux. If they do go over, the poor teams also get bigger luxury tax shares at the end of the season. They might also be able to pick up more bargains among waived vets who are now willing to play for near vet minimums since they're already getting a paycheck elsewhere.

Well, that's all I got for now. A bit of a serious/boring post, but those ideas have just been rolling around in my head for a while. More youtube and funnies later this week, I promise!

Friday, January 9, 2009

Friday Posting

Sorry, I promised to update more and then I don't write for a week. I swear I'll write more this weekend (including rants/opinions on the current Darius Miles situation). In the meantime though, here's my predictions for tonight. I just want to get my picks in before the first tip-off. More thoughtful stuff later, I swear.

Memphis +6 +190.5
Toronto -6 -190.5



Atlanta +5 +192.5
Orlando -5 -192.5



Charlotte +5.5 +191
Phila. -5.5 -191



Boston +4 +183
Cleveland -4 -183



Houston -6.5 +196.5
Oklahoma City +6.5 -196.5



LA Clippers +15.5 +185
New Orleans -15.5 -185



New Jersey +7 +193.5
Milwaukee -7 -193.5



Washington +4.5 +196.5
Chicago -4.5 -196.5



Detroit +4 +192.5
Denver -4 -192.5



Miami -4 +193.5
Sacramento +4 -193.5



Indiana +14 +225.5
LA Lakers -14 -225.5



Dallas +6 +209
Phoenix -6 -209

Friday, January 2, 2009

Hold the Booze

Boozer apparently will now undergo surgery after Jan. 9th. You figure he'll need at least another month to recover, maybe more. So the earliest he's back will probably be late Feb. Worst case, he's not back till late March if at all. If you're riding at the top of your league... feel free to hold on to him, but if you're struggling for a top 6 spot, you might want to consider trading him super cheap or even cutting him altogether (once he's becomes droppable). And if you followed my whole 76ers/Jazz drafting strategy... I'm sorry. Between Boozer and Brand's currently injuries, Deron's earlier injuries and Igudala's earlier inconsistency... your team is probably a mess.

Sorry about my lack of updates in the last week... with the holidays and traveling... I haven't been watching that many games or reading that much bball stuff. New Years resolution... I'll write more, I promise. Also, speaking of the year and all... here's NBA TV's top 10 plays of the season.

Friday Lines

So, last week I got 10/20 picks right. 8/10 on the over under and 2/10 on the spread. This is the second time that's happened. If this continues, I think I might just do the opposite of my intuition for the spread ;-)

Tonight's a BIG basketball night. New Years day is one of the few days in the season where NO team plays. Random trivia... the other days being Christmas Eve, the Monday after the all-star break, and the night of the NCAA championship game. Before this year, Thanksgiving night was also one of those days.

Anyhoo, considering nobody played yesterday, tonight, all 30 teams are playing. 15 game, 30 picks. Here we go...

Spread
O/U
Houston -5
+190.5
Toronto 5
-190.5




Miami 9
+190
Orlando -9
-190




Washington 14.5
+188.5
Boston -14.5
-188.5




Indiana 2
+228
New York -2
-228




Chicago 12.5
+196.5
Cleveland -12.5
-196.5




Atlanta -4.5
+197.5
New Jersey 4.5
-197.5




Golden State 2
+218
Minnesota -2
-218




Denver -7.5
+207.5
Oklahoma City 7.5
-207.5




Sacramento 8
+187.5
Detroit -8
-187.5




San Antonio -7
+185.5
Memphis 7
-185.5




Phila. 8
+195.5
Dallas -8
-195.5




Charlotte 6.5
+183.5
Milwaukee -6.5
-183.5




LA Clippers 12.5
+199.5
Phoenix -12.5
-199.5




New Orleans 1
+182
Portland -1
-182




Utah 9.5
+208
LA Lakers -9.5
-208